Thursday 21 November 2019

Awaiting more spooky news

US equity indexes closed a little weak, sp -4.9pts (0.2%) at 3103. Nasdaq comp' -0.2%. Dow -0.2%. The Transports settled -0.1%. Near term outlook offers another wave lower to the sp'3050/46 zone.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, and leaned to 3094. Price action was choppy into the afternoon.

Volatility picked up, with the VIX settling + % at 13.   .

Yesterday saw a break of s/t rising trend, with s/t equity price structure of a bear flag. If the Wednesday low of 3091 can be taken out - whether tomorrow, or early next week, it will offer a fast run to next downside gap of the 3050/36 zone, which might equate to VIX 17/18s. 

More 'spooky news' - namely... US/China trade related, appears due within the immediate term. If the Chinese make it clear 'no phase'1 trade deal' before year end, the market will broadly slide into end month/early December.

Sidenote: It should be clear, the US President has been increasingly intolerant of any degree of equity downside in recent months. If we do cool to the mid/low sp'2900s, it will be fascinating to see how Trump reacts on Twitter. 

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Goodnight from London
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