Wednesday 11 September 2019

Awaiting the ECB

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +21pts (0.7%) at 3000. Nasdaq comp' +1.1%. Dow +0.8%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.8% and +3.5% respectively.




US equities opened in minor chop mode, which was appropriate for Sept'11th. The morning leaned upward, with the SPX battling upward into the late afternoon. The closing seconds saw a micro short-stop cascade, settling at the giant 3000 threshold.


It is increasingly unusual if we don't have a day, where the US President takes a swipe at the Fed.

Volatility was ground lower, with the VIX settling -3.9% at 14.61. The s/t cyclical setup favours the equity bears. Right now, the most realistic target are the sp'2920s, with VIX 18/19s. Its difficult to see anything more dramatic than that ahead of next Wednesday's FOMC.

Thursday will see the ECB announce its latest policy decision, with Draghi likely to cut rates, if only by -10bps to -0.50%. It should be a reminder to the mainstream of where we're broadly headed into 2020.

Soon... full
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EDT) @

Goodnight from London
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