Wednesday 24 August 2016

The year end close

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +4pts @ 2186 (intra high 2193). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.4% and 0.7% respectively. VIX settled +0.9% @ 12.38. Near term outlook is for a lot of chop ahead of Yellen, due this Friday morning at Jackson Hole.




*a notable new historic high of 5275 for the Nasdaq comp'. It remains the case that any monthly close in the 5300s should be enough to awaken the mainstream to begin chatter about when the 6000s will be seen.

As for today... the market was certainly a little stronger than expected, with the sp/dow coming very close to breaking new highs. Clearly though, as Yellen is due this Friday morning, many traders are naturally unwilling to get involved.

VIX remains very subdued, still entirely unable to break and hold the low teens. The key 20 threshold looks out of range for at least another month.

The year end close

During today's lunch time show, the cheerleaders on clown finance TV were again day-dreaming about where the market will settle the year.

There are increasingly a broad range of targets, with some expecting sustained weakness/volatility - largely due to the US election, with downside to around sp'2000. A few of the more bullish are seeking broader upside to the 2300s.

My guess? If we don't break <2130 during Sept/Oct, then another powerful blast higher will occur, with a year end close somewhere around 2300. If that is the case, then the 2400s in spring 2017 will be an easy target.

On that bullish note...

Goodnight from London