VIX twitchy on Fed day

Whilst equities closed significantly weak, the VIX was back on the rise, settling +2.7% @ 23.11. Near term outlook offers renewed equity upside, at least to the sp'1940s, and that will likely equate to VIX back under the key 20 threshold.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

First... the 5min cycle merits an unusual highlight...

Upon release of the FOMC statement, the VIX saw a hyper spike to 27.22. Normally, I'd just write that off as a rogue print, but there were a number of downside prints.. with a low of 20.42.

The fact we managed a close in the 23s does give some credence to the original 27.22 print.. and more so, 20.42.
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Anyway, despite this afternoon's wild ride, nothing has changed. There still seems viable upside to the sp'1970s, but that looks out of range for another 7-9 trading days.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed significantly lower, sp -20pts at 1882 (intra high 1916). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.9% and -1.5% respectively. Near term outlook remains bullish into February, but clearly... the market is unsettled, as there are multiple econ/corporate concerns.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: a new intra low of sp'1872... with a close that doesn't offer any clear sign of a floor/turn.
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Interesting day, but then it was a Fed day.

Despite a rather bland policy statement, market decided to once again sell lower.

For now, I don't see any realistic chance that the 1812 floor will fail. Cyclically, the setup does not favour the bears, as the daily/weekly cycles remain on the low side.

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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - moderately choppy

US equity indexes remain moderately choppy, after the Fed press release has given the market the excuse for a swings. VIX has seen some rather dynamic action, although some of the prints are arguably to be dismissed as 'rogue'.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*VIX sure has seen some crazy prints, ranging from 27.22 to 20.42
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I realise some out there are looking for a top... but really.. it seems highly unlikely today was the day.

The bigger weekly cycles are still highly suggestive things won't max out for another few weeks.
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notable weakness

AAPL -5.8%
BA -8.5%
NFLX -5.4%.. broad weakness.. major problems in the months ahead

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Barring the apocalypse... I'll return at the close
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3.16pm.. sp -29pts...   with VIX +6% in the 24s.

Hmmmmmmm

It is notable that Gold is picking up a fear bid, +$5.. having swung from -$5


3.21pm..   and that is why some say not to trade 'Fed days'. Can get real messy... on both sides.

AAPL -6.4% in the $93s is causing real problems.. as the Aug' 2015 low of $92 is not at threat.

2pm update - time for a press release from PRINT HQ

US equities are moderately choppy, as the FOMC are set to issue their latest policy statement. No doubt, the Fed will want to placate the market at least a little, after the recent equity rout. Oil is battling to hold significant gains, currently +2.6%.. around the $32 threshold.


sp'60min

USO' daily2

Summary

... lets see what the algo-bots make of the press release...

My guess remains we'll see a net daily gain in equities.

The next real problem for the market is the reminder that growth is failing... we'll get Q4 GDP on Friday.
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2.01pm.. rates (not surprisingly) left unchanged.

With the FOMC out of the way.. VIX is imploding... -7%.. in the 20s.

...only to see some CRAZY ASS hyper-spikes .. 'rogue prints' in both directions.

5min

Madness
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2.06pm..   VIX -9% @ 20.42... . it remains VERY unstable


2.11pm.. Ohh the humanity, sp -6pts.. clearly we have a top, right?

Daily/weekly cycles remain leaning bullish into mid February. I see nothing that should entice the bears
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2.21pm.. chop chop... indexes always trying to turn positive again..

VIX -1% in the 22s....    21s look due again
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2.24pm... Clown finance TV is getting even too annoying for me...

Style mutes Gross.

(how could you not like Ms. Swift?)

sp -3pts @ 1899....        eyes to the VIX 

1pm update - chop ahead of the Fed

Most US equity indexes are now moderately higher, and look set for muted chop ahead of the Fed press release at 2pm. VIX is -3% in the 21s, and looks set to lose the key 20 threshold... along with the sp'1940s. The bigger weekly cycles remain setup for choppy upside into mid February.


sp'weekly6

sp'daily5b

Summary

*waiting for the weekly 'rainbow' candle to turn blue.. as seems probable.

We'll probably get 3-5 blue candles before the next multi-week down wave <sp'1800.
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back at 2pm.. .for the Fed.

12pm update - a tease... indeed

US equity indexes are all in the process of turning positive, with the VIX naturally turning negative. The FOMC statement is likely to placate the market enough to merit a daily close in the sp'1915/25 zone.. along with VIX 20/19s.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*despite another dire inventory surplus.. Oil is +3.5%... and that sure is helping market mood.
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Well, even I saw that equity rebound coming.

Now its a case of the market to absorb a Fed press release.. but more so.. a lousy GDP data point this coming Friday morning.

In any case... sp'1940s are due.. and if this drags out into Feb 8-17th - as the weekly cycles are suggestive of, then we'll see 1970s.

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VIX update from Mr T.


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time for tea :)

11am update - equity bears are being teased

US equities hit an intra low of sp'1887, but it seems extremely likely that the market will close net higher. There are numerous signs.. the VIX was only able to climb 2-3%, and the 'old leader' - Transports, is already +0.6% .. despite Boeing -9.4%.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*With another monstrous weekly oil surplus of 8.4 million barrels, the mainstream are reminded of the underlying problem... too much supply.

Ironically, NOTHING has yet been done to restrain supply.

The industry has barely begun to capitulate.  Some of the listed names are going to disappear this spring/summer.
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notable weakness...

Boeing (BA), daily

Ugly chart... testing the Aug' low. A bounce into mid' Feb looks viable... but broader downside to $70/65 looks due.

Do the math... and extrapolate that to the sp'500/Dow. Maybe I'll cover BA more later.
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time for lunch :)

10am update - opening weakness

US equities open moderately lower, but there are already signs the indexes are set to turn positive as the day proceeds. VIX is naturally higher, but only by 2%.. and looks set to turn negative. Gold -$4. Oil is -0.1% ahead of the EIA report.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

For those equity bears hoping we are going to unravel <sp'1800 in the near term... price action/structure sure doesn't support it.

Yes we're lower, but neither the daily/weekly cycles are setup in a way that offers opportunity of sustained downside before mid February.

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As for AAPL...

I've seen this picture before, and the setup does not favour the bears. The $105s look very viable.
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time to cook...   back for the EIA oil report at 10.30am
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10.23am..  Dow -155pts...  VIX +2.6%.....   that tells the story.

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10.31am.. EIA,  inventory build 8.4 million surplus...  another dire amount...

Oil is -1.3%... but threatens to turn positive later today.

sp -12pts @ 1890....  I'd guess we'll close net higher today.
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notable weakness...

AAPL -5.6%
NFLX -3.3%
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10.37am.. Rogue print on the VIX of 24.38....     as ever.. . curious

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are moderately lower, sp -8pts, we're set to open at 1895. USD is cooling, -0.5% in the DXY 98.80s. Metals are weak, Gold -$3. Oil is -1.7% ahead of the latest EIA report.


sp'60min

Summary

So, we're set to open a little lower, but nothing significant.

re: AAPL.  Earnings were reasonable, but in early trading are currently -3.7% in the $96s. The AH high was $103.50

If the main market holds together for a few more weeks, AAPL should still battle upward to at least $105.

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Doomer chat, Hunter with Celente



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Overnight action..

Japan: solid gains, closing +2.7% in the 17100s.
China: -0.5% @ 2735, having hit 2638
Germany: currently -0.5%  @ 9777

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Have a good Wednesday

China breaks the August low

Despite monetary easing, restrictions on stock sales, and numerous witch hunts, the Chinese equity market has followed other world markets in breaking below the Aug'2015 low. The Shanghai comp' settled -6.4% @ 2749. Regardless of any near term bounce, bigger downside targets are the 2500s, and then 2K.


China, daily

China, monthly

Summary

*the China market will be closed for 'spring festival' from Feb 7'th-14th
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The monthly candle is confrming what was indeed a bear flag that developed across Aug-December.

In theory, its a straight run to the 2500s, and if there are a few black swans this spring in the USA/EU, then the Shanghai comp' is going to fall all the way back to 2K.
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Econ/Market chatter from Schiff




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Looking ahead

Wed' will see New home sales and the latest EIA oil report.

*the FOMC will issue a policy statement at 2pm. There will NOT be a press conf' from Yellen.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +26pts @ 1903. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 2.5% and 2.1% respectively. Near term outlook offers the sp'1940s before the weekend, along with VIX 20/19s. The bigger weekly cycles are still threatening 1970s by mid February... before a grander decline into the spring.


sp'daily5

R2K

Summary

Suffice to add, near term outside.. at least to the sp'1940s.. and that will likely equate to the R2K @ 1040/50.

Broadly, the US market looks vulnerable into the spring/early summer.

At best, equity bulls will be able to hold the market together into mid February. From there... the 1812 low should be taken out... at least to 1750/25 by late March.

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a little more later...