Volatility climbs a little

With the main indexes closing moderately lower, the VIX climbed for a second day, closing +4.1% @ 13.18. Underlying momentum is certainly turning back upward, with the VIX still reflecting bizarrely high levels of market complacency.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Perhaps most notable today was the first test of the daily 10MA. Equity bears should be seeking a Thursday VIX close in the mid/upper 13s, but that will be difficult, with the hourly index charts in their current config.

The key VIX 20 threshold still looks very difficult to hit in Aug/September..even if the market declines back down to the sp'1550s - which appears to be 'best bear case'.

Right now, the notion of VIX 30/40s..seems impossible, baring the moon making landfall in the pacific.

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes closed with moderate declines, the sp -6pts @ 1685. Hourly index charts are offering significant upside across Thurs/Friday. If earnings continue to at least come in 'reasonable', Mr Market looks set for another wave higher into the weekend.


sp'60min

Summary

Opening moderate gains...failing right from the start...turning to moderate declines into the afternoon.

I suppose it was less dull than the past few weeks, but still..we're only talking about very small moves, not even a high/low trading range of 1% for the headline indexes.

Best guess remains..sp'1710/20s by early next week.
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bits and pieces across the evening...

3pm update - hourly cycle complete

The main indexes are holding moderate declines, with the sp -0.4% @ 1685. Hourly index charts offering a possible turn/floor phase, with a new up cycle across Thur/Friday, the fact there is a $4bn QE-pomo will no doubt greatly help. Bears should not get lost in the mild hysteria.


sp'60min

Summary

It remains a pretty quiet market. Sure, we've seen a little wave lower, but...we're not even talking 1%...well, except for the Trans and R2K.
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Nothing has changed, and I'd still have to expect higher levels in the days ahead.
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Metals look to have floored at the lower bol' on the hourly charts...

SLV'60min

*I'll hold long SLV overnight..seeking a move into the 20s

2pm update - still minor moves

With the sp'500 lower by 0.5%...everything is clearly falling apart, and the bears are back in control...right? Hourly index charts are not showing a turn/floor yet, but even the low 1670s look difficult. The metals and Oil have continued to slip, with Oil -1.8%


sp'60min

Summary

It still all ranks as small moves so far.
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The only really dynamic action is in the metals/Oil.


SLV'60min

*I remain long SLV, and will only get concerned if <19

1pm update - beware of bearish hysteria

The main indexes are struggling a little, but the bears have only knocked the sp'500 lower by 0.38%. Yet, there is some very clear 'crashy' chatter out there, which is unquestionably just a case of bearish hysteria. Oil is still slipping, now -1.7%


sp'60min

Summary

These remain micro..if not nano-scale index moves, and even to me, seeing ANY kind of bearish talk right now is laughable.

The weekly charts remain outright bullish, and I want to see sp'1710/20s before I'll consider shorting the indexes.
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*there is a clear gap around sp'1655, but really, how are we going to fall another 30pts this week?

Hourly MACD cycle is very low, and I'm guessing we rally into early Thursday..when there is a large QE anyway.

12pm update - bears are still weak

Despite the opening gains failing, the bears are still weak. The primary trend remains to the upside, although yes..price momentum is cooling down. Precious metals are weak, along with Oil, -1.4%.


sp'60min

Summary

The near term issue remains...is sub'3 even complete yet?

Considering the price action, I'm still guessing...no.

Best guess remains, we max out either early next week (pre FOMC)..or the FOMC will cause a sub'4..and then market maxes out early August.

Regardless, this sure ain't looking bearish this week.
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*I am long SLV, and its mildy annoying right now. Baring some bizarre late day ramp, I'll look to hold into late Thursday morning at least.

Hourly charts are offering a possible bull flag though, and the weekly charts for Gold/Silver are suggestive of much higher levels in the near term.


VIX update from Mr T.



time to shop...and cook !


12.37pm... sp -0.4%... can you hear the bearish hysteria talk yet?

11am update - minor down cycle complete

The main indexes have seen a touch of weakness, and the small 5/15min cycles look floored at sp'1687. Precious metals and Oil are moderately lower, with the VIX +4% in the low 13s. It will be interesting to see what the bulls can manage across the rest of the day.


sp'15min

Summary

Another instance of the bears managing a decline, but its so minor as to be considered nothing other than mere noise.

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Primary trend remains to the upside, as best seen on the weekly index charts.

Best guess..1710/20s...by early next week.
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*I holding long via SLV, weekly charts for the metals look pretty bullish into August.
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stock of the day...VMW..

Very bullish, with a break over the 200 day MA, next target is 90/92.

10am update - morning chop

The main indexes open with moderate gains, but there are a lot of black-fail candles on the 15/60min cycles. Despite the chop, bears still seem powerless, and there would seem little reason why today will be any different to the previous 20 days.


sp'60min

Summary

So, a bit of mixed chop, and frankly, I don't sense the mood is any different to yesterday.

Does anyone seriously think the market is going to decline significantly today?

*bears should keep in mind there is a rather huge QE tomorrow....there will no doubt be many front running that.


*I am long SLV.

An exit above yesterdays high would be...useful.

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Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +7pts, we're set to open at 1699/1700. Precious metals are a touch weak, AAPL is hgher by almost 5% ($20), on earnings. General upside continues sp'1710/20s look very likely.


sp'60min

SLV'15min

Summary

So, we're set to open on the border sp'1700, and it does look likely this morning. In theory, that should open up another 10/20pts by the end of this week.

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*On any basis the precious metals look a buy (along with GDX), again I am keep an eye on SLV (currently -16 cents), and will look to pick up a position early this morning.

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Notable movers.... VMW,  F,  and STX
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Oscar video...



Surprisingly, he is not in hyper-bullish mood today.


9.48am.. I'm LONG SLV, from 19.56.  seeking the 20s later today.

micro 5min cycle looks done.
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Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes closed somewhat mixed. The Dow managed a 20pt gain, sp -3pts, whilst the Nasdaq composite lost 21pts (0.6%). Broad near term trend remains to the upside. The only issue is whether sub'3 of 5 is complete.


sp'daily5

Summary

A long..and tiresome day.

Considering the price action and market mood, I'm inclined to believe sub'3 isn't even complete yet.

If that's the case, maybe we're looking at sub'3 completing next Tue/Wed...with the FOMC/GDP being a sub'4 down..and then the market maxing out in early August - as I was originally looking for?

Regardless, whatever the hell it is...the current trend remains UP.

That's all for today.

Goodnight from London