It was a very bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from +6.0% (Nasdaq comp'), +3.5% (SPX), +2.7% (NYSE Comp'), +2.6% (Dow), to +2.3% (Transports).
Lets take our regular look at five of the main US indexes (monthly candle charts)
All five US equity indexes settled net higher for the week.
The Nasdaq comp' lead the way higher, with the Transports lagging.
More broadly, four of the five indexes remain under their respective monthly 10MA, the exception being the Nasdaq comp'.
The Nasdaq has turned net positive for the year, currently +1.7%. The SPX is -9.3%, with the Dow -14.7%. The NYSE comp' is -18.4%, with the Transports lagging, -23.6%.
A lighter week is ahead, and that will give the market more opportunity to focus on the grander issue of how strong the economic recovery might be in the second half.
M - UAA, CAH, MAR, CLF, LOGI, ON, AN, CEIX, CZR, CLR, SPG, MYL, TLRY
T - EGHT, HMC, CSPR, INFN
W - CHK, CSCO, SNE, T, JMIA, SD, JACK, FLO
T - AG, PBR, AMAT, ACN, NCLH
F - DKNG, VFC, JD, EQX
T - CPI, US T-budget
W - Powell due to speak (9am), PPI, EIA Pet'
T - Weekly jobs, import/export prices
F - Retail sales, empire state manu', indust' prod', consumer sent', *OPEX*
So, everything is fine again, or soon will be... right? Well, that is what the mainstream cheerleaders are increasingly confident about. After all, the Nasdaq has turned positive for the year, and stock prices are reflective of the economy, yes?
Whilst the April BLS print of -20.5M, will likely never be exceeded in our life times (ohh, do I sound like Yellen?), millions of Americans are still losing their job, each and every week.
Sure, there will be a huge return to work for many into/across the summer, but how many? 90/80%? Half? A quarter by late summer?
The truth is... no one knows, least of all the deluded mainstream cheerleaders, whom will be crying like little babies, if the equity market stalls, and takes another swing lower.
I guess if you want to simplify things, you could say yours truly is bullish above sp'3K, whilst bearish <3K. For those without an income though, such matters of equity price action are entirely irrelevant.
I consider myself lucky in that whilst I'm self employed, at least I'm still able to work from home, and pull in some amount of income. Many haven't had any income in around two months, and some (such as the self employed) don't qualify for government support. Few on the financial networks want to think about such 'problem people', as it would dent their pathetic delusion that zero/neg' rates, and fed printing will fix the underlying problem of a collapsed US/global economy. It won't, and I trust you recognise that.
The Celente merits attention...
His point about essential/non-essential status is profoundly important. We now live in a two tier society. Those who are allowed to earn an income... and those who are not.
Summer is near, and in addition to renewed equity/capital market turmoil, its safe to expect some degree of social unrest. Bullish popcorn.... I guess.... in the twilight zone.
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Have a good weekend
*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EDT on Monday.