With equities appearing to have floored at sp'1925, the VIX has also turned, and melted lower into the weekend, settling -3.0% @ 12.18. Across the week, the VIX gained a rather significant 13.5%, but then, that was from the 10s.
VIX'daily3
VIX'weekly
Summary
So, a strong net weekly gain, but really, 13% of the 10s has only brought the VIX back to the 12s, and that remains a bizarrely low level.
What is even more incredible is that the new VIX 'spike highs', are sub teens!
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I'd expect the VIX to further slip lower into next Wednesday, before a possible post FOMC spike into the 14/15 zone.
I do not see VIX 20s possible until late July/early August.
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US equities ended the week on a slightly positive note, sp +6pts @ 1936. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.7% and 0.3% respectively. Near term outlook is for renewed upside next week, with sp'1960/70s.
sp'60min
Summary
...a lot of minor chop in the closing hour, and frankly, I've more interest in the Spain/Netherlands game.
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Have a good weekend everyone
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*the weekend update will be on the US weekly indexes
US equities look set to end the week with minor gains, with VIX set to close the week in the 11s. However, what really matters... another game... next up... Spain vs Netherlands :)
R2K, daily
Summary
The R2K (and Trans) are looking stabilised, and set for a new wave higher next week.
I have to think equity bulls should be charging for the big 1200 threshold next week, but that is a fair way up, and would probably take more than just 3 days...hmm
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US equities continue to see minor chop, but on a weekly basis, despite the net declines this week, the weekly cycles are still pushing upward. VIX is in melt mode, set to close in the 11s. Gold and Oil are both fractionally higher.
sp'weekly8
Summary
*a deserved victory for Mexico...
coming up at 3pm... Spain vs Netherlands.
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Little to note on the casino...market is merely in churn mode...and looks primed to push higher across next Mon-Wednesday.
Whilst US equities see minor chop - with underlying slight upside, the real story is in the VIX, -3.9% @ 12.07. VIX looks set for a weekly close in the 11s, and certainly reflects a market that has little real concern, and that includes the latest disturbances in Iraq.
VIX,daily'3
Summary
Little to add.
We're seeing just the typical minor chop into the weekend, with a VIX that is simply melting lower.
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As for the game, Mexico can justifiably be infuriated by the incompetent Columbian linesman.
The opening gains were a touch shaky, but the market has seemingly picked a direction, and we're headed back higher. With the turn upward, the weekly 'rainbow' chart for the sp'500 has flipped back to outright bullish.
sp'weekly8
Summary
Suffice to say, the recent few days were arguably just a minor retrace, and here we go again.. on the climb.
New highs seem viable by next Wednesday's FOMC.
R2K, a clear spiky floor, and in theory, new highs should be hit into July, which is 5% higher from here.. >1212.
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*WFM is causing me some annoyance this morning, I guess I'll be holding that, if not most other things across the weekend.
US indexes open moderately higher, with the hourly cycles offering upside across the day..and into early next week. Oil and Gold are both flat, but look set to see further gains across the next trading days. VIX looks set to melt lower into the weekend.
sp'60min
Summary
So..opening minor gains, but it is pretty choppy, as Mr Market battles it out to find a direction.
Nothing has changed..broader trend should resume upward.
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Notable 'strength' in OPEN.
OPEN, daily
Looking at the option call chain, I see some of the June calls +64,000%. Hmmm
Good morning. Futures are flat, we're set to open at sp'1930. With the market having slid from 1955 to 1925, the bears have seen their first minor fall in a few weeks. Can the bulls push higher into the weekend, somewhat importantly.. back into the 1940s? Probably.
sp'60min
Summary
So, we've seen a decline, and even if we see some chop today....I've little doubt we'll rally again in the first half of next week. Price action simply doesn't the bears.
Importantly, I'd like to see a weekly close in the 1940s, since it would keep the 'rainbow' chart cycle on outright bullish (green).
sp'weekly8b
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*notable strength: INTC, +6.6% @ $29.80s, on an improved outlook.
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Video update from Mr Permabull
The sp'2100s... hmm, I still have the hope that will not be until after a sig' 2-4 month decline, and then a final giant ramp in 2015.
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Todays' games..
12pm EST: Mexico vs Cameroon
3pm EST: Spain vs Netherlands
6pm EST: Chile vs Australia
Now..that should be enough to keep all the traders busy today.
Good wishes for Friday..the 13th.
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9.06am... PCLN buys OPEN... ...OPEN +48% in the $104s.....
The market has seen a minor down wave from sp'1955 to 1925, on what is often a low, the Thurs/Friday, of the week before opex. Barring a break <1900, equity bulls should be charging for the 1960/70s next week.
sp'weekly8b
Summary
Most notable today, the 9th green candle has turned from green... to blue. The week is not over of course, and if the market can rally back into the 1940s tomorrow, then we'll still close green.
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Looking ahead
There really isn't much due tomorrow, just producer prices (final demand), and consumer sentiment data.
*next sig' QE-pomo is not until next Monday.
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Seeking another wave higher
Considering the recent price action - and a VIX whose spike-highs are now sub-teens, I hold to the outlook for further upside into next week.
*I hold long, via CHK, an index long, and WFM. If all are holding gains by late Friday, I will likely drop all into the Friday close.
US indexes all closed lower, sp -13pts @1930 (intra low: 1925). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.9% and -0.6% respectively. Near term outlook is for renewed 'moderate' upside into the FOMC of next Wednesday.
sp'daily5
R2K
Trans
Summary
*the weakness in the Trans is certainly important to note, although the broader market is still comfortably holding within broader up trends.
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All things considered, unless we fall below the big sp'1900 threshold, equity bulls really have little to be concerned with.
Best guess... upside next week..to the 1960s, possibly 1970s on a brief FOMC spike.
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Closing update from Riley
I'd agree with Riley in that WTIC Oil looks set to test the $110 threshold, but whether we can get a monthly close >110, that is the big unknown.
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a little more later...
