VIX continues to cool

With equities closing higher for a second consecutive day, the VIX naturally cooled, settling -7.8% @ 19.11. Outlook into mid March offers the sp'2000/2020 zone, which will likely equate to VIX in the 16/15s. Hyper upside in the VIX looks out of range until April.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Suffice to add.. VIX looks set to remain broadly subdued into mid March.

An interesting question is how high the VIX might spike before end March? Certainly, the 25/30 zone looks viable, even if VIX is 16/15s in the week of March 14th'.

The 40/50s look out of range until April.
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More later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +21pts @ 1951 (intra low 1925). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.1% and 0.9% respectively. Near term outlook offers a weekly close in the 1965/75 zone, and that will continue a short-stop cascade all the way to the psy' level of sp'2K.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: a clear break above the 50dma of 1945...
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So... a second consecutive net daily gain... and its notable that we've already battled 3% higher from the Wed' morning low of 1891.

Next target is the psy' level of 2K...  with the 200dma in the 2025/30 zone... by mid March.

From there... reality should dawn once more that 'everything' is not fine.
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For those resolutely holding short... here is some disturbingly scary music...



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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - inexorably climbing

US equities break a new intra high of sp'1944.. a mere point beneath the rather important 50dma. A weekly close in the 1950s is clearly viable tomorrow, and that should inspire the mainstream to really ramp up the bullish hysteria for the first half of March. After all.. everything is fine now... yes?


sp'60min

Summary

Little to add.

I could reel off dozens of individual company charts that would support the notion of sp'2K....  suffice to add... we ain't headed <1810 in the near term.

I guess you could say.. .we gotta go up.... before we can go down.

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notable strength... TSLA, daily

As noted this morning, TSLA was lower in early trading, but that a break above resistance was due. We've already hit $188 today.. and look set for the $200 threshold.

I happen to like the company, but from a valuation perspective, its crazy high. Looking at the giant monthly cycle... next key downside target (with sp'1600s) is the $120/100 zone.

Any price action <100 this year would bode for a continued implosion to... $40.

If we're $200 by mid March.... that'd be an effective drop of 80%.
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back at the close

2pm update - pushing toward the 50dma

With no downside pressure, equities are seeing renewed upside, breaking a new high of sp'1942, a mere 3pts below the 50dma. A daily close close above the 50dma still seems more viable tomorrow. In any case.. once 1950s.. a straight run to the 2K threshold looks due in early March.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

*VIX has naturally already fallen below the key 20 threshold.

If you assume sp' 2K... that will equate to VIX 16/15s by mid March.
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I was browsing around, and I see a few touting a top in the 1950s. I can kinda understand that, but looking at dozens of individual company charts... we'll likely see a snap/break >1950.. and keep on going.

I see ZERO reason to get involved on the short side for another 8 days at the very earliest.
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back at 3pm... for more exciting developments




 /s.

1pm update - holding together

US equities are holding together, merely consolidating the Wednesday recovery gains. A daily close in the sp'1940s is viable, along with VIX settling under the key 20 threshold. Another tranche of equity bears are set to get short-stopped out, as a break above the 50dma is due tomorrow/early next week.


sp'60min

Summary

Little to add.. as price action remains subdued.

This is mere consolidation/chop ahead of the next wave higher.

It will be amusing to see just how bullish about the economy the mainstream get, once we see a daily close above the 50dma.

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notable strength... CREE, daily

Next upside target is the rather obvious gap zone of $34/35.. which is another 10% higher. Everyone needs lighting, right?
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back at 2pm

12pm update - chop chop

Equity price remains somewhat choppy, but underlying price pressure is still leaning to the upside. It is arguably merely the case of whether a daily close above the 50dma (sp'1945) tomorrow.. or early next week. Broadly.. equity bears look out of the picture until the week of March 14th.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

Little to add.

Price action is increasingly subdued.. with the market consolidating yesterday's recovery gains.

What should be clear... we're headed >1950.

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VIX update from Mr T.



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time for lunch

11am update - set for further upside

US equities have cooled from an opening high of sp'1939 to 1925, have probably seen the low of the day, and look set for a second consecutive net daily gain in the 1935/45 zone. A daily close above the 50dma looks more viable tomorrow/next Monday.


sp'60min

Summary

Little to add.

A little morning chop... but broadly.. the trend should be clear to most. We're still headed higher.. with a daily close above the 50dma... tomorrow or early next week.

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notable stock... BA

Looks headed for the upper end of the gap zone..  $127/128s. A somewhat interesting thought is that 'natural downside' would be to the mid $70s.. and that is a roughly 40% drop.

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Here in London city

A little sun... but still chilly. The somewhat good thought is that next Tuesday will be March 1st, and within a few more weeks... bright evenings!

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time to cook

10am update - opening shaky gains

US equities open moderately higher to sp'1939, but most indexes are looking vulnerable to turning negative.. if briefly. The 50dma is at 1945, and looks set to be closed above within the near term, and that will open the door to a run to the 2000/2020 zone.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

Equity bears should be mindful of getting overly excited at opening gains which are initially fading.

Broadly.. having seen a powerful reversal yesterday... the trend remains rather bullish into next week.

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notable opening reversal...

TSLA, daily

Battling to clear resistance of $180. If you consider sp'2K.. then TSLA will break through.. and proceed to around $200 by mid March.
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stay tuned

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are moderately higher, sp +6pts, we're set to open at 1935. USD is -0.1% in the DXY 97.30s. Metals are bouncing, Gold +$7. WTIC Oil is -0.5% in the low $32s.


sp'60min

Summary

The hourly MACD (blue bar histogram) equity cycle is set to turn positive at the open, and will likely tick higher into the afternoon.

Equity bulls should be pushing for a daily close in the 1950s within the next 3 trading days.

Once that is achieved, it should be a straight run to 2000/2020s by mid March.
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Bullard is on CNBC this morning...

 ....saying all sorts of crazy stuff, even the issue of whether helicopter drops into 'everyone's bank account' would generate inflation.
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Overnight action

Japan: +1.4%  @ 16140
China: imploding across the day, -6.4% @ 2741
Germany:  currently +1.4% @ 9314
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Have a good Thursday

... awaiting weekly jobs, and Durable Goods orders....

A test of the 200dma

It was a pretty wild day for US equities, with the sp'500 opening significantly lower to 1891, but then powerfully recovering into the close, settling +8pts @ 1929. There are a great many individual company charts that continue to suggest the sp'500 - along with a few other indexes, will battle upward to test the 200dma by mid March.


sp'daily

sp'weekly6

Summary

Suffice to add... it really seems to be a case of where this market maxes out around mid March.

Sp'2K looks very viable. The 200dma is currently at 2028, and will remain in the 2020s across March. There is a very notable gap of 2038/43. Might that be hit on the next FOMC of March 16th?

In either case, equity bears would arguably do well to merely side step things for another 2-3 weeks.
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Market/econ chatter from Schiff




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Looking ahead

Thursday will see the usual weekly jobs, Durable goods orders, and the FHFA house price index.

*Fed officials Lockhart and Williams will be on the loose.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities saw a very significant latter day recovery, from a morning low of sp'1891, settling +8pts @ 1929. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.5% and +1.0% respectively. Near term outlook offers renewed upside to the 1950/60s... with threat of 2K by mid March.


sp'daily5b

Dow

Summary

Suffice to add, the daily candles are offering a powerful spike floor from sp'1891.

Near term outlook is bullish, with a daily close above the 50dma (1946) now viable as early as tomorrow.

Broadly upside into mid March looks probable... with a brief foray back above the psy' level of 2K.

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a little more later...