Volatility slips for a second day

With the main indexes managing to hold moderate gains, the VIX slipped lower for the second consecutive day, settling -0.2% @ 12.42. Near term outlook is for the VIX to remain in the 14/11 zone. VIX 20s look unlikely until mid/late June.


VIX'daily3

Summary

Little to add.

VIX looks set to remain low (VIX opex is this Wednesday morning I believe), and if the main market can battle to sp'1920/30s by mid June, can VIX break (if briefly) to the 10s ?

Regardless, I have no interest in picking up a VIX call block for another few weeks.
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more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed higher for the second consecutive day, sp +7pts @ 1885. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.8% and 1.0% respectively. Near term outlook is moderately bullish, with the bigger weekly cycle offering as high as sp'1910 by the Friday close.


sp'60min

Summary

*I hold moderately long overnight, seeking an exit of one block (I've 2), in the R2K 1120s tomorrow morning.
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So..gains for the market...second day running, and Tuesday looks set for further gains, perhaps more significant than today. Certainly, if the R2K can break 1125, along with a breakout on the Nasdaq, then sp'1895/1900 looks viable tomorrow/early Wednesday.

Yes..volume is light, but that just makes it even easier - if not 'safer' for the equity bulls.

For me, I am somewhat resigned to broad upside into the next FOMC of June'18. 
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more later...on the VIX

3pm update - melt into the close

Market looks set for minor upward melt into the close, which will make for the second consecutive daily gain for most indexes. The sp'1890s look likely tomorrow, the only issue is can the bulls hold the 1890s..or will the sellers appear again?


sp'daily5

Summary

Well, we look set to close the day at least somewhat higher.

The big issue is whether last Thursday was a key low..setting up 2-4 weeks of upside - forming a large H/S formation for the R2K.

Regardless...at least in the near term.., the trend remains.UP.

*I will hold moderate long overnight, but am most certainly seeking to lighten up..if R2K 1120s tomorrow morning.
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3.14pm.. coming up on clown finance TV... Stan Lee !  ..finally a guest I can respect

meanwhile..the casino looks like we'll indeed melt into the close..sp' 1884/86 or so ..with the 1890s tomorrow.


3.20pm.. something for the gold miner bugs out there...

GDX, daily

Death cross tomorrow..or Wednesday...not exactly bullish!
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3.36pm.. ohoh, CNBC was good with Mr Lee, but next up.... a doomer bear..due to tout a 25% decline...

and no..I'm not doing media appearances.


3.48pm....melting ..melting...melting...UP

With QE tomorrow...equity bears face the usual problem.  

back at the close

2pm update - holding moderate gains

US indexes continue to hold moderate gains, with the Nasdaq Comp' very close to breaking above descending resistance. Tuesday looks set for further gains, with another 1.5-2.0% of upside viable for most indexes. Metals continue to slide, with Silver turning red.


Nasdaq, daily

Summary

Little to add.

Two hours to go...I think the equity bulls should be very content with today's gains..which set up a breakout for the Nasdaq/R2K tomorrow...along with sp'1895 or so.
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1pm update - the 1890s look due

Some minor chop (not least in the R2K), but most indexes are comfortably holding moderate gains. The sp'1890s look likely tomorrow, and a somewhat bigger can of QE fuel ($2-3bn) will no doubt help. Metals are holding minor gains, Gold +$2, but daily candles are warning of trouble.


sp'daily5

GLD, daily

Summary

*black-fail candles on GLD and SLV, does not bode well for tomorrow.
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The sp'1894/96 zone will be my target for tomorrow. I suppose a Tuesday daily close in the 1900s is just about viable, which would be very bullish for the rest of the week.

Weekly charts will be offering as high as sp'1910 by the Friday close.
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So..3 hrs left of today....I'm expecting more minor chop..but even moderate gains will help to set up tomorrow for a breakout on the Nasdaq..and perhaps the R2K.

Taken together...it looks reasonably okay for those on the long side.

12pm update - new high for the old leader

The 'old leader' - Transports, has broken a new high this morning, and it certainly bodes reasonably well for the equity bulls (not least with more QE fuel tomorrow). Equity bears look powerless, and Mr Market appears in melt mode...first upside is sp'1895 or so.


Trans, daily

Nasdaq daily

Summary

Little to add, on what is turning out to be a day of upward melt.

*notable strength in the tech, with the Nasdaq close to a breakout. AAPL looks strong, with viable near term upside to 615/20.
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VIX update from Mr T.



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stay tuned.

11am update - Transports pushing for a new high

The equity bears lack any downside power, and we're back to melt mode..which could be the case for much of this week. The transports is close to breaking a new historic high, which is a particularly bullish sign for the broader market.


Trans, daily

R2K, daily

Summary

*I remain moderately long, but will seek to drop 1 (of 2) blocks, if R2K in the 1120s.
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So..most indexes are moderately higher. only the Dow is somewhat lagging. Overall, price action sure does not favour the bears.

If the R2K did just form the right side of a large HEAD..then we're headed all the way to 1170/80..which will really cause problems for those holding short.
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time for a somewhat early lunch :)
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11.26am.. Transports breaks a new historic high.

There is a fair chance of a few hours of chop..before another wave higher into the close.

I remain long...seeking R2K in the 1120s..and I will probably drop 1 block then.

10am update - bulls need to hold the weekly 10ma

It is highly arguable of course, but from a brief look at the weekly chart, the equity bulls need to hold the weekly 10MA...currently @ 1865. Any move below last Thursday's low of 1862 would bode for much lower levels...although that seems...unlikely.


sp'weekly8

Summary

*I am trying to be more focused on the bigger picture, which is always a bit of a struggle, not least when the price action is relatively minor.
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So...my line in the sand is 1864/62...if we see the 1850s..I'd be somewhat spooked.

Opening price action...

black candle on the VIX, with reversals on the indexes.... bullish.

special note...weekly 'rainbow' candle turned blue around 1877...and so I'd at least like to see a weekly close  above that.
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It is notable that the upper bollinger on the weekly is now offering 1907...and if the market does rally, that could rise to the 1910/12 zone by late Friday.
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Notable strength..AAPL

The 7 for 1 split is just 2 weeks or so away, and as some might agree, the first obvious target would be $100, which would indeed be the equiv' of a new high.
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Long week ahead...
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10.39am.. Trans/R2K, both pushing upward...with the Trans close to a new historic high, which is certainly not exactly bearish..is it?
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Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch lower, sp -2pts, we're set to open at 1875. Precious metals are higher, Gold +$8, with Silver +1.2%. Equity bulls need to at least hold the 1865/60 zone today, if not push for a daily close in the 1880s.


sp'daily5

Summary

Arguably, the best opportunity for the bulls this week is across today and tomorrow - not least since it is the only sig' QE-pomo there is.

A daily close in the mid 1880s looks a reasonable target, and I'd be surprised if we don't at least manage that.

Equity bears need to take out last Thursdays low of 1862, and I can't see that viable today, although I was certainly wrong last Wed/Thursday.
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*I remain long, via the R2K no less, and would most certainly prefer an exit into the coming 3 day holiday weekend.


9.36am.. opening reversal... black candle on the VIX

Equity bears...beware!

*I'm still kinda burnt out....I will probably be somewhat 'sporadic' this week... or maybe I just need to go shop for more chocolates (and wine?).

Sunday night chatter

US indexes have good opportunity to at least attempt a rally all the way into the 3 day holiday weekend. There is comfortable viable upside of 2-3% on most indexes, not least the battered R2K. VIX looks set to remain in the 14/11 zone until early June.


R2K, daily

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Spike floor candles are only marginally less important than a black-fail or red reversal candle. The fact we have no less than 4 spike floors is actually pretty bullish..at least for the near term.

Of course, any break <1080..will open the door to much lower levels..at least to the equiv' of sp'1814, but I am not expecting that.
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Three videos..to end..and start a new trading week...

First... from sp500chart.com


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Second...some doom chat from Hunter with Mr Shadowstats



I have to note though, I do not hold to the dollar doom outlook at all. Quite the contrary, with either the Yen or the Euro going first.
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Finally, a super brief update from Oscar..who is looking to be long the market - at least to begin the week.



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Equity bulls have their best opportunity across Mon/Tuesday, not least due to some QE-pomo fuel..although yes, that will only amount to $2-3bn a day. The days of $5bn POMO are over.

Goodnight from London