Friday 28 November 2014

Volatility climbs into the weekend

With equities seeing a touch of weakness into the close, the VIX built some gains, settling +10.4% @ 13.33. Near term outlook is for continued broader equity strength, which should keep the VIX capped firmly in the low/mid teens.




*across the week, the VIX gained 3.3%.

There is not much to be said on the VIX. A brief spike higher is always viable, at best, 18/20 zone.. but even that looks a stretch.

I've ZERO interest in being long VIX until late 2015/early 2016. 
more later.. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed with some mixed chop, sp -5pts @ 2067 (new historic high 2075). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled u/c and -1.4% respectively. Near term outlook is for continued upside to the low sp'2100s.



*no doubt, some equity bears will be getting moderately excited with the late morning weakness, but frankly.. its all minor noise.

Little to add.... will post a great deal on the metals... and energy.. in later posts.

Have a good weekend!
*A full set of updates across the rest of the day.. to wrap up the trading week.

12pm update - an early closing hour

US equities remain in micro chop mode, but with the usual underlying upward bias, with notable new historic highs in the sp'500 and Trans. Oil remains in collapse mode.. heading for the target zone of $65/60. Metals are similarly weak, Gold -$17.

GLD, daily


*Sunday night futures could be real interesting for the precious metals. Once the Swiss vote is out of the way, there is zero reason why Gold won't see another severe wave lower... first target is a move to the $1100/1080 zone.

There are so many powerful individual stock moves... it is hard to know what to highlight...

I can merely refer anyone to CHK, RIG, SDRL,  FCX

.. for upside... JDST, DAL, UAL.. and my new favourite... INTC (headed for $50s.... which is partly why I am resigned to sp' 3k).

time for lunch... back at the close of 1pm.

11am update - forget the market, we got X-wings and the Falcon

Whilst the broader equity market sees micro chop into the early 1pm close.. far more important developments have occurred. We have a teaser for Star Wars ep'7. Who needs ETFs, when we have X-wings, Tie-fighters, or the gods damn Millennium Falcon?


Very bullish


... the new teaser trailer...

*there is actually also a fan made trailer doing the rounds today. Its rather good, but entirely fake, see HERE

re: precious metals.

Gold bugs are getting a little taste of what Sunday night futures will probably bring.

back at 12pm

10am update - very mixed open

US equities open exceptionally mixed, although with a notable new historic high in the Transports. Energy stocks are crushed with severe falls of 6-8% common, whilst miners are weak as the metals are sharply lower, Gold -$17, with the ETF of GDX -5.4%.




Frankly, I ain't in the best of moods.

It is a vile time of year, as the masses go even more insane than normal (not least with pre Christmas sales).

I'm sick of the gold bugs.
I'm tired of the idiot top callers (yeah.. that includes YOU deflationland)
I'm pissed at the dollar doomers, not least the Schiff, who is now an utter embarrassment, utterly inflexible in his outlook for a full decade.

There just seem so many gods damn idiots out there right now. Everyone is getting more out of touch with reality each month.

Where are the 'balanced' ones?

Ohh, and I can already hear '... ohh, says the guy who is now touting sp'3k'. To hell with all those who don't see what is happening.

All the signs are there.. .ignore them... as you wish.

back soon

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Equity futures are broadly flat, we're set to open at sp'2072. Metals are very weak, Gold -$10, with Silver -2.9%. Oil is severely lower, -5.8%. Energy stocks are naturally under strong downward pressure.



A short trading day ahead.. .we close at 1pm.

Notable early weakness.. not surprisingly... energy stocks..

CHK -5.7%
RIG -7.7%
SDRL -6.3%

With weak metal prices, miners are under pressure...

FCX -4.6%

On the flip side, with Oil prices much lower.. airlines are very strong. DAL and UAL are both higher by around 4.5%.

As for the broader market.. there is near term upside to 2080 or so, certainly the 2100s are viable by mid December.

Have a good Friday.

The sp'500 - naked

Stripped of any trends/channels, support/resistance lines, bear/bull flags... or any of that Fibonacci nonsense, one thing should be clear to anyone since summer 2013 - the old double top of 2000/2007 was decisively broken, and this market ain't likely going under sp'1500...  EVER again.

sp'monthly3c - bare bones


For those few of you out there this evening/early morning, I will no doubt have annoyed some of you with the opening paragraph.

Yet... I did originally state it last summer... after we failed to break back <1500.... which was when I waved a giant white flag, and didn't short the indexes again until this past Sept/early October.

Despite the US fed ending QE... now we have the BoJ picking up the slack, and no doubt the ECB will make a serious attempt to also start buying T-bonds early next summer. Frankly, I see zero reason to attempt any index shorts... nor be long VIX, until late 2015/early 2016... at the earliest.

A reminder on the recent 'crazy fib nonsense'...

sp'monthly5b - fib levels

Without restating everything from last Friday's post... the next fib level of sp'2138 is easily within range.. and after that... its arguably 'empty air' to the 3k level. Whether that hits late 2015, or early 2016... I really don't think is the important issue.

Looking ahead

There is no data of significance due tomorrow.  Market will of course be reacting to the failure of OPEC to cut output... energy stocks will no doubt be under some downward pressure. As ever, I'll be keeping a close eye on the oil/gas drillers of RIG, SDRL, and DO.

Market closes early at 1pm.... so... an early start to the weekend :)

Goodnight from London