With equities failing to hold the key sp'1900 threshold, the VIX built gains into the afternoon (intra high 28.33), settling +17.0% @ 27.63. Near term outlook offers a brief VIX drop early Tuesday before pushing into the 30s. The 40s look possible... if sp'1820 this Wed-Friday.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Suffice to note, the third consecutive net daily gain. The daily MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is set to turn positive at the Tuesday open.
By this Thursday, there will be high threat of VIX in the 35/45 zone.. not least if sp'1820, which now looks probable.
US equities closed significantly lower, sp -49pts at 1881 (intra low 1879). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -2.2% and -2.9% respectively. Near term outlook offers a brief bounce to the 1900/1910 zone.. before very high likelihood of a move to sp'1820 by Thurs/Friday.
sp'60min
Summary
.. and the week begins with a rather powerful net daily decline!
A bounce early tomorrow still looks very viable.. but clearly, the primary trend this week is lower.
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*I am on the sidelines overnight, but will look to launch a major re-short in the morning.. pref' around 1905/10.
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US equities appear to have finally put in an intraday floor of sp'1880 - with VIX 28.15.. and we're now battling upward. There will no doubt be a lot of bears to short-stop out into tomorrow morning... best case bounce upside looks to be around 1910. The sp'1820s look a given this Wed-Friday.
sp'15min
sp'daily5
Summary
Well, I'm starting to get tired.... on what has been a pretty fiercely bearish day to start the week.
Yours truly was clearly overly rattled by the Sunday night futures action... and lack of a straight gap under sp'1900.
Anyway.. the technical break has been done.
I will strongly consider launching a major re-short tomorrow morning.. somewhere in the 1900/1910 zone.
Target will be 1820.. and I will endeavour to hold until that is hit.
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3.05pm.. chop chop... but the 1880 low is holding.
So.. what excuse to get the market to open higher tomorrow?
3.12pm.. so much for the 1880 low.... VIX spiking back... 28.03.
Oh well, I suppose it could be worse.... I could be long.
US equities remain under severe downward pressure.. with a new intra low of sp'1888 and VIX 27.11. There remains high threat of a bounce into the close.. and one which might drag out into early Tuesday. Best bounce target is 1910/15... from there, straight down to 1867.. and probably 1820 by Thur/Friday.
sp'15min
VIX'15min
Summary
A rather fierce battle continues as the market is truly struggling to find a short term floor.
There seems HIGH threat of sp'1820 this week, not least with the R2K well on the way to the Oct' 2014 low of 1040.
Frankly, equity bulls had better pray 1040 holds. If we see a sustained break under there... well... wild days ahead.. it seems.
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*I am on the sidelines... looking to launch another re-short.. preferably from the 1910/15 zone. Right now. .that seems more viable tomorrow morning than by the close of today.
As for sunshine...
A bonus summer afternoon
Bearish shadow
Ohh, and the 'super blood moon' last night... it was quite a sight in London city. Clearly, a sign the market will crash this week, ;)
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**Bonus chart...
sp'weekly6
A red candle... nothing bullish there.. with first resistance at the 10MA of 1989, a full 5% higher.
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stay tuned
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2.06pm.. A market short term floor.. if 2.30pm.. then a natural high would be tomorrow in the 10/11am hour.
Not that I'll trade such a prediction higher.. to me.. that would be crazy.
Default trade is short.. just a matter of finding an acceptable level.
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2.15pm.. sp -49pts.... VIX 28s.. due.
Relentless grind lower.... prime threat of a turn in 15mins.
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2.27pm... Well, its about that time of day....
Market trying to floor from sp'1980.. with VIX 28.15.
2.30pm... Its time for a turn............ sp'1884..
Best case bounce upside is now the 1900/1910 zone.
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2.35pm.. If the market can close around 1895 or so.. that brings within range target zone for tomorrow morning.
Interesting that VIX shows near zero market panic.
2.38pm.. sp'1886.. looks like we're seeing first stage of a bounce.
US equities are so far unable to find any kind of short term floor, with a new intra low of sp'1889.. along with VIX in the upper 26s. The only solace for the bull maniacs is that for now.. there is no sense of any market panic. Commodities remain broadly weak, Gold -$12, whilst Oil is -2.4%.
sp'15min
VIX'60min
Summary
*I'm trying to keep in mind the perpetual threat of an intra bounce.. but clearly so far... FAIL.
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Right now. best bounce upside would be around 1910/15 zone.. and if we rallied from here.. it'd likely take until tomorrow morning to complete.
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Special note..
R2K, takes out the Aug' low...
Next support is the Oct' 2014 low of 1040... which would equate to sp'1820.. by this Thursday
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*I am on the sidelines.. have ZERO interest in any longs.. would consider a market re-short.. but more so.. tomorrow morning at 11am.
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1.07pm.. Market trying to punch another floor from 1889.... now 1893.
In theory... a bounce would last into tomorrow morning..rather than complete today.
1.29pm.. another fail... new low 1888... with VIX 27s
notable weakness, energy.. CHK -9% in the $6.70s.... pure horror
The key sp'1900 threshold fails to hold, although price action remains very much in non-panic mode. VIX is in the 26s.. and it would now seem sp'1867 would equate to VIX 29/30 zone. Commodities remain broadly weak, Gold -$11, with Oil back on the slide, -2.0% in the $44s.
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
Well, it seems I was overly cautious.. and we're seeing a market that simply can't hold key support.
There is now obvious threat of 1867.. whether tomorrow or Wednesday.
notable weakness: FCX -10%... as many question how low Copper might go.. along with the fate of Glencore.
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*With support broken, I will consider a re-short on any minor bounce into the afternoon
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VIX update from Mr T.
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time for tea
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12.04pm.. R2K... breaks the Aug' low.
Next support... 1040.. the low of Oct'2014... and that would equate to sp'1820.. this Thurs/Friday.
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US equities remain significantly lower, with the sp'500 having hit 1902 (along with VIX 26.73). However, it is prime time for a rally into the afternoon. USD has notably turned lower, -0.1% in the DXY 96.10s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$12, with Silver -3.3%. Oil is above the lows, -1.2%.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*the smaller 5/15min cycles are offering a more clear turn... but I highlight the hourly charts for a slightly bigger perspective.
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Not much to add.
I realise some of the doomer bears out there will be screaming for a break under sp'1900... but... I'm finding it hard to believe it is possible... not least after overnight price action.
notable strength: INTC +1.2%
*I am content on the sidelines.
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time for some sunshine... back at 12pm
US equities open moderately lower, with the sp' hitting 1911 (VIX 25.56). There is notable weakness in commodities, with Gold -$14, Silver -3.1%, and Oil -1.6% in the $44s. The market is clearly on the edge of the sp'1900 cliff.. but for now... price action looks highly suspect in terms of a break lower.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*I exited SPY-short and VIX-long just after the open from sp'1920 and VIX 25.20 respectively.
Frankly, considering the overnight futures action (indexes were positive at one point), I'm more than content with my two exits.
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So... what now?
Its a very borderline situation.... my best guess... hunch... call it whatever you want... I just don't feel the bears are showing the downside power necessary to convince me to remain short.
For now... I'm content to step aside.. and see what happens.
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10.03am.. Market tests the 1908 low..... despite the declines... I just don't like what I'm seeing.
.. but hey... I ain't going long.
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10.12am.. Market testing the 1903 low.
notable weakness, AAPL -1.8% in the $112s.
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10.19am.. King O' rises at the UN.... now the market can rally?
notable strength: INTC +1.5%.... very odd.
10.25am.. Market trying to push higher from a floor of sp'1902.. with VIX 26.73.
A net daily gain won't be easy.... but then... less difficult than a break <1900. The morning window is closing for the bears.
Good morning. US Equity futures are moderately lower, sp -16pts, we're set to open at 1915. With the USD flat in the DXY 96.20s, there is sig' weakness in the metals, Gold -$12. Oil is similarly weak, -1.7% in the $44s.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
Overnight action has been broadly weak, but still...it hasn't been anything significant.. at least yet.
The bears need a clear break below sp'1908, but more importantly, the
1903/00 zone. Until sub 1900, there remains threat of a renewed rally to
the 200dma in the 2060/50s.
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notable mover: Alcoa (AA), +5% in the $9.50s... as it announces it is to split into two publicly listed companies. That will solve all the structural problems, yes?
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Doomer chat, Hunter with Ms. Prins.
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Overnight Asia action
Japan: -1.3% @ 17645... broad weakness... first target remains 16500
China: Opened lower, but then the buyers (PBOC?) stepped in, the Shanghai comp' settled +0.3% @ 3100. A break under 3K remains first target... and then 2500/2000.
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Overly cautious?
I am somewhat concerned of renewed upside into mid Oct'. As things are, I will strongly consider exiting this morning. If the market can't break 1900...whether today or tomorrow.. then I'll drop any hope of further sig' downside until late Oct'.
Have a good Monday
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8.30am.. sp -15pts... 1916.
As things are.. considering futures price action.. I'm looking for an early exit (from SPY-short, VIX-long).
I'm increasigly concerned of a further wave higher... but it does NOT change my broader outlook.
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*equity bears should be VERY mindful of a likely opening black-fail candle in the VIX.. somewhere in the 25s.
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8.50am.. sp -13pts... 1918.
*I have tight stops on two positions, will likely get kicked at the open... and I'll be fine with that. I want OUT.
9.10am.. sp -10pts.. 1922.
Again, early price action does not favour the bears. A net daily gain looks increasingly a threat.
*it is notable that equity bears only need a Wed' close <1972 for a net monthly decline. That does seem very likely.
9.16am.. sp -15pts... 1916.... that probable equates to VIX 24.25 or so.....
