Closing Brief

US equities clawed higher from an earlier low of sp'2046, settling -0.7pts @ 2058. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.4% and -0.5% respectively. Near term outlook offers a brief test of the 50dma (2040) early next week, before renewed upside into the sp'2100s.


sp'60min

Summary

Interesting day... but overall.. its all minor moves.

I see a few are already calling sp'2046 (38% fib retrace of 2092/1972 wave).. as a short term floor.

In any case, I can't see the market trading under 2k any time soon.

Have a good weekend

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Daily wrap at 8pm EST.

3pm update - chop into the weekend

US equities remain moderately weak, with the sp' having broken a new cycle low of 2046. VIX remains notably red, -5.0% in the low 18s. Metals are cooling from earlier swing gains, Gold +$2. Oil remains very weak, -2.4%.


sp'60min

Summary

Little to add.

Hourly cycle is offering a turn, but I can't take that seriously as a key floor.
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Seeking a hit of the 50dma.. along with gap support (especially seen on the R2K).. equivalent to sp'2040.. very likely on Monday.
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back at the close.. to wrap up the holiday week.

2pm update - continuing weakness

US equities continue to slide lower, with sp -0.5% @ 2047.. a mere 0.5% away from the important 50dma. VIX remains notably back to flat, having broken above the 20 threshold earlier. Metals are cooling from earlier swing gains, Gold +$3. Oil remains very weak, -2%


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

Well, it looks like we're headed for sp'2040.. where the 50dma will be lurking on Monday. That equates to R2K @ 1180/75, where there are 3 aspects of support.

No doubt many will be calling the last few days as a genuine sign that the market is in real trouble in Q1... but frankly, I can't take the declines seriously.

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notable weakness, TSLA, -3%

12pm update - messy start to the year

US equities remain moderately weak... with the sp' having slipped to 2048.. a mere 0.5% from a challenge of the 50dma. Metals are holding the swing gains, Gold +$9. Oil is clawing back upward from the pre-market low of $52.03. Notable weakness in the R2K, -1.2%.


sp'daily5

R2K, daily

Summary

*R2K offering a clear gap zone around 1180/75, another 1% lower...  suggestive of sp'2040 next Mon.. and then a turn upward.
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For the equity bulls... its been a messy end to 2014... and the year is not starting so great with a significant reversal from sp'2072.

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VIX update from Mr T.


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time for tea... back at 2pm

11am update - failed opening gains

US equities opened higher... but indexes have already turned red.. as confimed in a VIX, having swung from 17.05 to the low 20s. Metals have similarly swung.. Gold, from -$13 or so, +$8. Oil remains weak, -2%. Notable strength in Nat' gas +3.8%


sp'daily5

VIX, daily3

Summary

*back from a few hours sleep.. it helped.. sorta.
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So much for the opening gains, an opening reversal to start the year. Hmmm

Next downside key target is the 50 day MA of sp'2037,  by next Mon/Tue that will be around 2040.

VIX is notably higher for the fifth consecutive day.. with a break above the key 20 threshold. Frankly... it is surprising to see.
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Notable weakness: TSLA, -3.4%

With oil continuing to slide, the oil/gas drillers are very weak, RIG -2.3%, SDRL -1.8%

Here we go again

Good morning, and welcome to a new trading year :) Futures are moderately higher, sp +9pts, we're set to open at 2067. Metals are starting the year moderately weak, Gold -$8. Oil prices remain in collapse mode, Oil -2.7% in the $52s, whilst Nat' gas is getting a bounce of 1.2%


sp'daily5

sp'weekly

Summary

*on any outlook, we're going to close with net weekly declines, so... equity bears will have that to begin the year.
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Well.... a new trading year is set to begin.

I do understand why some were getting moderately excited at the weakness across Wednesday, but I can't see this market going much lower. The sp'2130/50 zone looks a very viable target for late Jan/early February.
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Notable early strength: US Dollar, +0.5% @ 90.80... the giant 100 level is coming, and that is going to be a major problem for the precious metals (along with the miner stocks) and indeed... energy prices.

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*Frankly, I am exhausted.. I've been awake since 2am EST, I'll spare the details, but suffice to say, I will likely be on a go-slow today... if I drop offline later today.. it'll be because I've fallen asleep.
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Awaiting econ-data: PMI/ISM manufacturing, construction spending

back at 10am (probably)