Monday 8 October 2018

Bearish start

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp -1pt at 2884. Nasdaq comp' -0.7% at 7735. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled u/c and -0.1% respectively. VIX settled +5.9% at 15.69. Near term outlook offers a bounce.




It was a bearish start to the week, not helped with weak EU/Asian markets. The sp' broke below the Friday low, with the VIX correspondingly breaking above its Friday high. There was yet another latter day recovery from a low of 2862 to settle at 2884. The daily candle is a hollow red reversal, and offers provisional sign of a s/t floor.

Volatility spiked, with the VIX seeing a new multi-month high of 18.38. With equities recovering, the VIX cooled, settling +5.9% at 15.69. Note the black-fail spiky candle, which provisionally marks a s/t peak.

Bonus charts...

China, monthly

Monday was the first actual trading day of the month for China, and it wasn't a great start, with the Shanghai comp' settling -3.7% to 2716. So long as the Sept' low of 2644 holds, no concerns. However, if that does fail, then it would merit alarm bells, especially if the DAX also unravels...

Germany, monthly

The DAX is a key market, and if the l/t trend from 2009 is decisively broken and settled under... that would merit alarm bells. Technically, any bearish monthly close would offer 8k... which is a long way down.

Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @

Goodnight from London
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