VIX manages a gain

With equities closing broadly weak, the VIX managed its first net daily gain in 7 trading days, settling +7.2% @ 20.78. Near term outlook offers threat of 22/23s - if sp'1905/00, but more broadly... the sp'1950/60s still look probable... which will equate to VIX in the 18/17s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Suffice to add.. there is threat of further equity weakness early Wednesday, but from there.. the market still looks set to claw back upward.

It remains notable that VIX has been trading almost entirely above the key 20 threshold since the start of the year, a level that was barely ever attained across 2013-14.
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more later.... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -24pts @ 1921. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.3% and -0.9% respectively. Near term outlook threatens the 1905/00 zone, but with broader upside to the 1950/60s. The real issue remains whether the market will be able to claw to around 2K by mid March.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: a new intra low of 1919... 2pts above the lower end of the 1924/17 gap zone.
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Not a great day for the equity bulls... but neither a dire one.

Considering Oil declined by around -5%, equities held up relatively well.

What should be clear, the bigger daily/weekly charts are still offering further upside into mid March, before the next grand rollover.

.. and it remains the case, that in theory.. the next rollover should be far more severe than that of late Dec/Jan, or of last August.

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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - temporary stall

US equities remain broadly weak, with the sp'500 currently still stuck in the 1920s.. along with VIX 20s. At best, equity bears might manage the 1905/00 zone - if the market is upset at the next pair of oil inventory reports, but regardless... the 1950/60s still look a rather easy target.


sp'daily1

VIX'daily1

Summary

*yes.. there is that gap around sp'2040... but hell, that looks damn difficult.
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One down day does not breaketh the trend, right?

The recent high of sp'1946 makes little sense as a key high, especially when seen on the bigger daily/weekly cycles.

This market still looks set for further upside, before a key high in first half of March.
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back at the close

2pm update - still kinda tedious

Despite the sp'500 -21pts @ 1923, today remains somewhat tedious. Considering oil is -5%, the market is holding up relatively well. Metals are holding gains, Gold +$14, with Silver +0.6%. VIX is maintaining moderate gains of 7% in the 20.70s.


sp'daily5

Summary

If somehow the bears can manage to hit the 1905/00 zone... there is threat of a H/S formation. If that is to be deemed a continuation pattern.. then basic upside would be to 1990/2000. Just a thought.

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notable weakness...

BAC, daily

As more begin to realise another rate hike is off the menu for a long.... long time. In terms of upside.. best near term case is around $14.50... which would likely equate to sp'2000.

1pm update - such a great name

US equities remain broadly weak, but as the morning concerns about Oil begin to fade from the mind of Mr Market... there will be increasing threat of a late day recovery. The sp'1950/60s still look due in the near term, and that will cool the VIX back to the 19/18s.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

Little to add.

Clearly, this morning's declines are largely a result of renewed weakness in Oil.. which itself is -4/5%.. as a result of renewed whining and bitching amongst some member of what remains an effectively dissolved OPEC.

Renewed upside still looks due.. at least to 1950/60s.

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Meanwhile...

Such a great name for someone within a doomed bank. Ms. Short would probably do well to start applying for a job at a fast food restaurant before DB implodes.

*as for CMG, having already hit initial target of the 450/400 zone, next grand downside target is $250.. but I realise that will sound like crazy talk right now.
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ohh lookie...

Another one... this Ms. Short was touting tech stocks. Maybe she'll appear again if Nasdaq comp' 4K or less by early summer?
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back at 2pm

12pm update - trying to floor

US equities remain broadly lower, with the sp' having slipped to 1922, with VIX 21.07. However, today's action does little to stall the rally/bounce from 1810. The sp'1950/60s still look very probable in the near term. Metals are catching a clear fear bid, with Gold +$15.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

Unless I see VIX 24s, with a daily close <sp'1900, I still can't take any of this morning's price action seriously.
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notable strength...

Cracker Barrel (CBRL), daily

I forget who first suggested I look at this one (Brelsa?), but Cracker Barrel sure looks strong. Is this where all the lower gasoline 'savings' are going from Mr US consumer?

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VIX update from Mr T. 



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time for lunch

11am update - bears still look largely powerless

Despite breaking a marginal new low of sp'1928 - with VIX 20.41, the equity bears still look weak, and the market looks extremely prone to renewed upside. First target remains the 1950/65 zone, which would likely equate to VIX 18/17s.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*Oil is clearly causing some problems, -4.0% in the $32s.
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A marginally interesting morning... but really, is anyone seriously expecting a straight run under sp'1810 from here?

We've a clear minor gap zone of 1924/17.. and that is already close.
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The next few weeks will likely annoy many... as the market looks continually vulnerable, but looks set to push another 3-5% higher.
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notable weakness...

FCX -6%.. as those getting overly hysterical yesterday are again hearing bankruptcy chatter.

BAC -2.9%... as any hope of higher rates later in the year continues to fade.

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Here in London city...

Kinda chilly (7c), but its fine... and another day closer to summer :)

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time to cook...

10am update - opening black fail for the VIX

US equities open moderately lower to sp'1935, but the opening black-fail candle for the VIX is highly suggestive that we're still set for the 1950/60s in the near term before any chance of a retrace into end month. Metals are holding early sig' gains, Gold +$12, with Silver +0.7%.


VIX'60min

sp'60min

Summary

It should be clear to most.. there simply isn't any real downside power.. and we're set to resume higher.

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notable strength... miners

GDX, daily

The mining ETF breaks a new multi-month high. The lower red zone now looks increasingly out of range... even if Gold cools to $1180/70 by mid March. Broader upside target for April/May... $25/26.
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stay tuned

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are moderately weak, sp -9pts, we're set to open at 1936. USD is broadly flat in the DXY 97.40s. Metals are bouncing, Gold +$11 and Silver +0.3%. Oil is -1.2% in the $33s.


sp'60min

Summary

Market is seeing a minor cool down... but broadly... even the sp'1900 threshold looks out of range.. before the 1950/60s are first hit. So... I'd be looking for some latter day upside.
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early movers

CHK +2.5%... early gains, but is still in dire trouble
FCX -5.3%... as above
RIG -2.6%.... more trash...cooling

GDX +1.7%... as Gold rises, but looks highly vulnerable if Gold cools to the $1180s, before the next up wave into the spring.

TVIX +4.0% @ $8.50... but 7s look due if sp'1960s.

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Overnight action

Japan: -0.4% @ 16052
China: -0.8% @ 2903
Germany: currently -0.9% @ 9487
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Have a good Tuesday

A few more weeks

It would seem probable - based on many previous cycles, that equity bears don't have any realistic chance of sustained downside until at least mid March. For now, it remains a case of whether the market maxes out in the sp'1950/60s... or can battle upward to around 2K.


sp'weekly6

sp'monthly1b

Summary

re: weekly6: note the MACD (green bar histogram), continuing to tick upward. Another 2-3 blocks higher seem due. Whether we'll see a bullish cross by mid March... difficult to say. Even if we do though, the sp'500 should not be seeing any sustained price action above the 2K threshold.

re: monthly1b: note the 10MA, currently @ 2025. At the March 1st open (next Tuesday), that will drop to around 2000.

Equity bulls are going to face SEVERE resistance around sp'2000.


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Looking ahead

Tuesday will see Case-Shiller HPI, consumer con', existing home sales, Richmond fed.

*Fed official Fischer will be speaking AH, and that will likely sway the Wed' open.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed significantly higher, sp +27pts @ 1945. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.8% and 1.2% respectively. Near term outlook is for further upside to the 1950/65 zone. From there, threat of cooling into end month, before resuming higher across first half of March to around sp'2K.


sp'daily5

Trans

Summary

*the 'old leader' - Transports, looks headed for a test of the 200dma.. which in early March will be in the 7800s.
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As for the sp'500... next resistance is 1950/65 zone... some cooling into end month.. before a realistic test of the psy' level of 2K by mid March.
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Update from Riley (intraday, but it still applies)



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a little more later...