VIX cools into the weekend

With equities closing the week on a moderately positive note, the VIX continued to cool, settling -6.2% @ 15.05. Near term outlook is for further equity upside to test the 200dma in the sp'2060s, and that would likely equate to VIX 14/13s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

*the lowest daily close since Aug 19th
--

Little to add.

VIX remains broadly subdued as the equity market continues to claw toward the 200dma of the sp'2060s.

If sp'2060, that will likely equate to VIX 14/13s... around the time of the next FOMC.

From there... some sig' degree of equity retrace looks probable. At best.. VIX might briefly see the low 20s in early November.

--
more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes ended the week on a moderately positive note, sp +9pts @ 2033. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.6% and u/c respectively. Near term outlook is for further upside to the sp'2040/60 zone... by the next FOMC (Oct' 28th).


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: new highs for the week in the closing minutes... kinda unusual for an opex, where we've already seen such a strong run up.
--

... and another week comes to a close.

For those in bear land.. another lousy week, as the market continues to claw higher from the 'jobs Friday' low of 1893.

I for one am glad to see this week done with. Thanks for the messages/hellos this week... 

Have a good weekend.. if you can.
--

*the usual bits and pieces across the evening.. to wrap up the week

3pm update - net weekly gains

The sp'500 - along with the Dow, NYSE comp', and Nasdaq comp', are set for the third consecutive net weekly gain. There remains notable weakness in the two leaders - Trans/R2K. Oil is battling for a 1% net daily gain... in the $47s.


sp'weekly1b

USO'60min

Summary

Well, it has been another difficult week for those in bear land.

My 'white flag waving' in the sp'1960s doesn't seem so stupid now... and I'm seriously concerned we'll eventually break through the 200dma on all indexes.... and it sure doesn't have to be on the first attempt.

Say we get stuck 2050/60 around the next FOMC... then retrace to 1950 - a clear gap zone, and then push higher again in November.

Scary thoughts.

--
back at the close... to wrap up the week

2pm update - night falls way before the close

US equity indexes remain in micro opex chop mode.. and there is zero reason why that will change before the close of today. USD is fractionally higher in the DXY 94.40s... with Gold -$1. Oil continues to see swings... now +0.6%, but still net lower on the week by around -5%.


USO'60min

USO, weekly

Summary

So, a rather powerful net weekly decline for Oil of around -5%.. which is roughly a 50% retrace of last week. It will be important to see Oil re-take and HOLD the $50 threshold before end month.

As many realise.. the equity market is often swayed by Oil.. so those equity bulls seeking a key break above the 200dma - sp'2060s, are going to need to see Oil >50.. if not $55/57.


--
As for night...

1.15pm EST... in London city

For me, the end of summer is harder to deal with than 150 consecutive net daily gains of Dow +300pt ... whilst 100% short on front month index options. Seriously, how am I gonna make it through six months of this grey horror... in a city I thought I'd have left a month ago?
 
--
back at 3pm

1pm update - hourly cycle rolling over

US equities remain in minor chop mode, sp +2pts @ 2026. The hourly MACD cycle is starting to roll over, but being opex... there is little reason to expect anything of significance before the close. VIX is holding broadly flat in the low 16s.


sp'60min

Summary

Little to add... on what is a sleepy Friday
-

notable strength: GE

Nothing bearish there... the highest level since April 2008.
--
back at 2pm

12pm update - another hour

US equities remain a touch higher, sp +4pts @ 2028. Most indexes are set for moderate net weekly gains, although the two leaders - Trans/R2K, are currently net lower by -1.9% and -0.5% respectively.


sp'weekly1b

Trans, weekly

Summary

Little to add.. on what is a naturally choppy opex.

notable strength, GE +1.8%

--
VIX update from Mr P.


--
back at 1pm

11am update - natural chop

US equities are naturally in minor chop mode, after what were rather sig' Thursday gains.. brushing against upper hourly resistance in the sp'2025/30 zone. Metals are turning positive, Gold +$0.30. Oil is cooling, -0.9%.. but should be able to rally past the $50 threshold next week.


sp'60min

Summary

Little to add.

It is OPEX... there is no reason anyone should be watching this nonsense today.

Underlying pressure remains UP.. so the threat will be against the bears.

--
It is notable that whilst the VIX is +1%... the 2x VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY are both lower...

TVIX, weekly

Not exactly a great few weeks....  and the statistical decay problem sure isn't helping.

No doubt some will believe $20 will be re-taken soon enough. They should merely stare at the following for the next hour..

TVIX, 6yr

Yeah.. $112,350 to $7.26.  THAT is the statistical decay problem. Yes, I realise there are other issues that the Direxion team have to manage, like the costs of rolling over futures.

--
time for lunch

10am update - opening gains

The sp'500 breaks higher to 2030.. .with VIX flash-printing 15.56. With today being OPEX, there is little to expect other than increasing chop into the weekly close. The underlying pressure is increasingly to the upside, equity bears should have no hope until after the next FOMC.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

Yes, there are some reversal candles.. but really..  nothing has changed.

Anyone getting overly bearish needs to go stare at a weekly index chart for a few hours...  along with the daily for the Shanghai comp'.
-

notable strength: GE +1.9%... is the company buying HEAVY its own stock this morning in the $28s?

weakness... Seagate (STX)... -6%

One of the finest tech hardware companies. Next technical support is $35.

Pre-Market Brief

US equity futures are broadly flat, we're set to open at sp'2023  USD is continuing to rebound, +0.3% in the DXY 94.60s. Metals are cooling, Gold -$3. Oil is u/c in the $47s.


sp'daily5

Summary

There is little reason to note expect a day of moderate chop... on what is after all... OPEX.
--

Overnight Asia action

Japan +1.1%

China: +1.6% @ 3391. That is a rather powerful net daily close... effectively testing the old broken threshold of 3400s. Where China trades from here.... critical.
-


End week chat from Hunter



If that doesn't inspire you to kill yourself, I don't know what will

Have a great day

Another weekly gain looks due

With the sp' closing +29pts @ 2023, the broader market looks on track for a third consecutive net weekly gain. The sp' has climbed 152pts (7.6%) since the marginally higher low of 1871. Without question, the only important issue is whether the market can see sustained action above the 200dma.. and monthly 10MA.


sp'weekly1b

sp'monthly1b

Summary

A tiresome day.. and suffice to say... there is NOTHING bearish in the immediate term. Even Oil looks like it made a short term floor today, despite a rather huge net weekly inventory gain of 7.6 million barrels.
-

Update from Mr C.


--


Looking ahead

Friday will see indust' prod' and consumer sentiment.

It is OPEX.. so expect increasing chop into the weekly close.
--


Don't forget about China

As of 10pm EST, the SSEC is +1.0% @ 3370.

Any sustained action >3400 would be highly suggestive the down wave from the 5100s has concluded. I think its to be taken VERY seriously.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +29pts @ 2023. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.4% and 2.3% respectively. Near term outlook offers the 2030/40s, with the 2050/60s in FOMC week (Oct 26th>).


sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

Suffice to say.. very sig' net daily gains for all indexes. All US indexes look set to test the key 200dma before end month.

If sustained price action >sp'2060, the equity bears can wave any hopes of renewed downside until late spring 2016.

--
a little more later...