With a powerful latter day equity rally, the VIX was unable to hold early significant gains (intra high 16.28), settling -0.7% @ 13.61. However, near term outlook is for renewed equity weakness to the sp'2040s, which should equate to VIX 17/18s. The big 20 threshold looks out of range in the current cycle.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
A pretty wild day in the US markets.. with VIX leaping above key resistance of the mid 14s... maxing out at 16.28.. and then rapidly cooling to a late afternoon low of 13.45
Overall... the VIX looks to have merely seen another pull back (if a rather severe one).. and the 17/18s look viable within the near term.
The big 20 threshold though, still looks out of range in the current cycle.
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*yours truly exited VIX-long in the morning from 16.20... and is now re-long VIX from 14.42. Not surprisingly, I was early again on my latest entry, but overall, I'm content with being involved again from the 14s.
I would certainly be content with any pre-weekend exit >16.00, but that will clearly require the sp'2050s.
US equities settled moderately mixed, sp +2pts @ 2086 (intra low 2052). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.5% and -0.2% respectively. Near term outlook is for renewed weakness, with a target of the sp'2040s and VIX 17/18s.
sp'60min
Summary
*new highs in the closing hour... sp'2089.. making for a 37pt hyper ramp from the morning low.
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... and another wacky day in the world's most twisted casino comes to a close.
Frankly.. I realise many will be utterly bemused at today's latter day ramp.. but then.. we saw some crazy action just this past Monday.
Broadly, nothing has changed, it remains a case of increasing weakness as seen on the bigger weekly/monthly cycles.
I realise some are seeking new index highs in the weeks ahead.. but I find that implausible.
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*I hold long-VIX overnight.. having earlier exited at 16.20... back in at 14.42.. seeking the 17/18s in the next cycle.
US equities have somewhat bizarrely pushed back to almost break even, with the sp' ramping from 2052 to 2081, with VIX having cooled from 16.28 to 13.99. No doubt the bull maniacs will be calling for a key floor, with new highs 'due'.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
So.. a crazy ramp.. and I thought the 2070s were asomewhat bold call this morning.
Regardless, nothing in the bigger picture has changed. A day where the market broke a lower low, and with further technical damage on the bigger weekly cycles.
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*I will hold long-VIX overnight, and have little concern.
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3.29pm.. sp'2087... with VIX 13s.... 'normal service resume' you could say.
Crazy. So.. what the hell is driving this up.. other than a hyper-short stop cascade?
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The current situation is pretty clear... either this move from sp'2052 to 2077 is a mere bounce.. or a grand new multi-week up wave has begun. Considering the weekly/monthly charts - which have been warning of trouble for months... I remain inclined to the bounce view.
sp'15min
Summary
*standing by to re-long VIX... in the 14s.
Considering I exited at 16.20 this morning.. I'm very content with the current setup.
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Meanwhile... in the city... feels like summer is indeed winding down.
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updates across the hour...
1.52pm.. LONG VIX from 14.42.... with sp'2076.
Am I overly early again? Hmm....
VIX has filled the opening gap.... back amongst old (Broken) resistance in the mid 14s.
I'd like to see a daily close in the 15s.
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2.03pm.. Even with VIX in the mid 14s.. daily candle is still green...
Eyes on 15 at the close.
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2.22pm.. sp' seems stuck at the 50% fib retrace of 2078.
A close in the 2060s would be really good for the bears... and that'd give VIX 15s... with 97mins left of the trading day.. that is enough time to drop 7pts.
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notable weakness: BAC, -2.6%.. as the threat of int' rate rises is fading
US equities have rallied from a morning low of sp'2052 to 2068... and are approaching first fib' level of 2072. Sustained action much above 2075 looks difficult. VIX has naturally cooled from 16.28 to the 14.80s. If sp'2040s by the Friday close.. VIX 17/18s remain a valid cycle peak target.
sp'15min
VIX'60min
Summary
As ever... without getting lost in the minor noise, unless you are of the mindset that the market is headed to new historic highs... every bounce is to be treated as such.
notable strength: INTC +1.3% in the $29.30s.... and I'm glad to be out of that one.
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*I will strongly consider picking back up a VIX-long block in the 2pm hour.... somewhere in the 14.75/14.50 zone. Anything under there looks unlikely.
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US equities have seen a morning floor of sp'2052 - with VIX 16.28, and appear in the process of a moderate retrace. Upside is sp'2070, which should equate to VIX in the 15.25/14.75 zone in the 2pm hour. Considering recent price action... it will merely make for a re-short opportunity.
sp'15min
VIX'60min
Summary
I have added a simple fib' retrace to the 15min cycle... sp'2070 looks a viable bounce target, given another 2-3hrs.
Unless you are of the mindset that 'new highs are coming'... to me, this is merely another bounce to short.
*I will likely pick back up a VIX-long block late today/early tomorrow.
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VIX update from Mr T.
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time to see if the cheerleaders are crying yet on clown finance TV.
US equities have likely floored for the day at sp'2052 - with VIX 16.28. However, there still seems high likelihood of another equity wave lower before the Friday close. The bigger weekly/monthly cycles continue to increasingly swing in favour to the bears.
VIX'60min
sp'60min
Summary
*I EXITED VIX-long and INTC-short in the previous hour.
VIX was a fine exit.. but intel has been particularly annoying lately, and I will probably leave it alone for some time.. despite a H/S target of $22.50.
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So... a morning washout.. and we're clearly seeing some considerable technical damage.
On any fair basis, the July low of sp'2044 looks a viable target.. along with VIX 17/18s...
*I will strongly consider picking up VIX again, in the 15.20/14.25 zone. The 14s do look difficult though, considering the current momentum.
What most should likely recognise, the big 20 threshold does not look viable in the current cycle.
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11.30am.. sp'2060... VIX 15.50.... on track... target 2070/75.. with VIX 14s.
I will strongly consider picking up VIX in the 14s late today/early tomorrow... for a short term trade, with a target exit before the Friday close.
US equities open sharply lower for the second consecutive day, with the market a clear 50pts below the Monday high of sp'2105. VIX has finally broken above resistance of the mid 14s, +13% @ 15.50s. Near term outlook is for continued weakness to the early July low of sp'2044, and that should equate to Dow 17K with VIX 17/18s.
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
A clear break higher in the VIX... and if you can accept the notion of at least another day higher to 17/18s.. then you have to also be seeking the sp'2040s.
I am aware some are seeking the sp'2000/1975 zone... but that would necessitate a sustained move under Dow 17000, and right now.. that looks difficult.
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notable weakness: BABA
Ugly daily chart... nothing good there. Even clown finance TV were bitchy after the CEO's rather robot-communistic interview.
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For the moment, I am holding short the market... but I will certainly look to be fully closed out by the Friday close.
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*awaiting the latest EIA oil report at 10.30am... If Oil breaks under the March low in the $42s today... it'll really drag the main market with it into the afternoon... and tomorrow.
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10.08am.. notable weakness, airlines, DAL/UAL, both lower by around -5%.
sp'2061.. VIX 15.60s. .... The 2040s with VIX 17/18s.. look a likely cycle peak... late today.. or tomorrow.
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10.28am... EXITED VIX-long from 16.20....
I've a tight stop on INTC-short... looking to get out.
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Call it overly twitchy... but after the last few weeks, I want to start afresh.
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10.29am.. EXITED INTC-short.. from 28.85. Failed trade.... it just didn't sell lower as expected.
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10.40am... a bit of market chop... VIX has already cooled to the 15.70s.... there is an obvious gap zone.... more at 11am
Good morning. Futures are significantly weak, sp -18pts, we're set to open at 2066. USD is under pressure, -0.8% in the DXY 96.40s. Metals remain in bounce mode, Gold +$9, whilst Oil is +0.7%. However, commodities look set to break new lows across the next few months.
sp'daily5
VIX' weekly2
Summary
*PBOC have been meddling in the past hour or so... pushing the Renminbi back up back around 1%. Equity futures have clawed off the lows - we were trading under the equiv' of sp'2060... taking out the early July low.
Regardless of such meddling, some notable technical damage has been achieved by the bears in overnight trading.
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Equity bears should be battling for a break into the 2050s this morning.. with a viable daily close in the 2040s.
As noted many times.. they will be sig' support around the Dow 17000 threshold. If however that fails.. then next support is not until 16500... which would equate to the sp'2000/1975 zone.
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*I will continue to have eyes on the VIX. A break above resistance in the mid 14s will be a key bearish signal.. .and offer the 16/17s.... late today or tomorrow.
After a few frustrating weeks, I am looking to close out my short positions this week... and then re-short on a bounce... later next week.
As the VIX weekly chart highlights, I'm most certainly looking for VIX in the 20s... and will want to be broadly long volatility from now until late September.
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Update from an increasingly bearish Oscar
The issue on cycles is interesting, along with repeated bearish patterns for Gold.
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Doomer chat, Hunter with Hoffman
I am very mixed on what Hoffman has to say. Some of it.. talk of the 'cartel' is the same old Gold bug nonsense. Some of the chatter about currencies though is worthy of consideration.
As ever.. make of that... what you will.
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Overnight China action: There were a few vain attempts to hold minor gains, but the Shanghai cooled into the close, settling -1.1% @ 3886. It won't take much to spook the market into another wave lower.... first target is the 3200/3000 zone, secondary 2500.
By 2500 though, will the China leadership allow ANY stocks to be traded? I'd imagine they will have the 'malicious short seller' firing squads on standby this Sept/Oct'.
Have a good Wednesday
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7.56am.. sp -16pts... set to open @ 2068.
notable weakness: BABA -4.7% in the $73s... post earnings depression. It did briefly print $69.18.
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9.31am.. VIX opens at 15.19... a decisive break above resistance of 14.50.
Long day ahead.. lets see if 16/17s by the close... along with sp'2050/40s.
The US equity market has seen yet another failed rally attempt. The bigger weekly cycle is already offering a marginally lower high of sp'2105, and a lower low of sp'2076. With another reversal, near term outlook is back to outright bearish, first targets are Dow 17000, sp'2050/40s... with VIX 16/17s.
sp'weekly1b
Dow'weekly1b
Summary
Even if you disagree with the notion of a H/S for the Dow, recent price action is clearly one of increasing weakness.
Obviously, the 17k threshold will likely offer very strong support to the Dow, and frankly, I don't expect the market to be trading under there in the current cycle.
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Update from Mario at SMF
There is also a video discussing the Dow, if you check his YT channel.
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The following video by Ron Walker was originally posted at the weekend.
Ignoring the fact that it doesn't take account of the 'Monday nonsense', there are a great many issues highlighted about the bigger monthly charts. In particular the issue of the 10MA... and considerations of the price structure/action in the early phase of the collapse wave of 2007/09.
Highly recommended for those who have the time, and want to consider the grander picture.
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Looking ahead
Wed' will see the latest EIA report, along with the US treasury budget... but Mr Market has little care for the latter.
*fed official Dudley will be speaking in the early morning.. and its possible a few remarks might be noticed by Mr Market.
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US equity indexes closed significantly lower, sp -20pts @ 2084 (intra
low 2076). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.6% and -1.0%
respectively. With the full reversal of the Monday gains, near term
outlook is back to bearish, first target is the sp'2050/40 zone.. which
(in theory) should equate to VIX 16/17s.
sp'daily5
Dow
NYSE comp'
Summary
*it is highly notable that the Dow and NYSE comp' both saw 'death crosses' today.. where the 50dma broke under the 200dma. Such an indicator is very laggy, but still.. it sure ain't a bullish sign.
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As for the sp'500, even though we closed in the 2080s, the fact we did take out the Friday close of 2077 was a VERY bearish signal.
Considering recent price action, further downside looks due... next stop are the 2050/40s.
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