Monday 2 December 2013

Volatility moderately higher

With the equity indexes seeing another weak closing hour, the VIX managed another little spike, settling +3.9% @ 14.24 - the highest close in almost 7 weeks. There is moderate opportunity for a move into the 15/17 zone, but the 20s still look out of range until late Jan/Feb'2014.




There is little to add, the VIX remains low..and at best..a brief spike into the 15/17 zone seems viable before end year.

Certainly though, VIX >20 looks extremely unlikely, whilst QE continues.

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes saw another weak closing hour, with the sp -5pts @ 1800. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.3% and -1.2% respectively. The broader term trend remains strongly to the upside, and the monthly charts are now offering dow 16500, with sp'1840s.



Another weak closing hour for the market, but hey..the declines are very moderate, and absolutely nothing for the equity bears to be getting overly excited about.

The recent low of sp'1777 is still a fair ways lower, and that looks difficult to break below, with heavy QE this week.

If we're in sub'4..then chop for rest of the week, with any sell side volume negated via QE ?  Probably.

the usual bits and pieces across the evening.

3pm update - micro ramp into the close?

The smaller 5/15min index cycles are arguably close to flooring, a little ramp into the close is viable, ahead of heavy QE tomorrow. Metals remain sharply lower, Gold -$30, Silver -4%. VIX is battling to hold a 1% gain into the close.

sp'60min (with metals)


I see some chatter out there trying to work out what is going on in terms of the micro cycles.

Really, I think it is over thinking things.

Primary trend remains to the upside...and the monthly charts are now offering Dow 16500, with Sp'1840s...this month!

updates into the close...

3.10pm.. price action is very muted..a close <1800.. next to impossible.

Micro 5/15min cycles continue to offer threat of a jump into the close. >1808/10 much for the micro ramp..instead...a snap to 1800. Kinda interesting..but changes nothing in the bigger picture.

3.43pm..ohh the humanity. sp -0.2%.  Bears lost in hysteria..yet?

2pm update - minor chop

The main indexes continue to see minor chop, whilst the metals are still struggling to find an intraday floor. Gold -$27, Silver -3.3%, whilst the miners..GDX -4.4%. With heavy QE-pomo tomorrow, equity bears have little hope of even moderate downside in the immediate term.

sp'60min (with metals)


*metals..overlaid with the sp' really are struggling, and my earlier (short-side) exit now looks a fair way higher!

Still..the 19s are possible tomorrow, if Mr Market ramps...on a QE fuelled ramp.

1pm update - those poor miners!

Whilst the main indexes continue to see minor chop, the real action remains in the metals and the miners, the latter of which are seeing very significant declines. The gold miner ETF of GDX is -4%, and a break into the teens looks viable this month..even week.

GDX, daily



*having bailed on SLV earlier, I'm still looking to jump back in..but at a higher level. Considering the sizable QE tomorrow..equities look set to jump into the 1815/25 zone..and that might be enough to suck the metals (briefly) higher.

Target..slv 18.95/19.05...then 17.

Notable strength in Seagate (STX), +2.5%

STX is a $100 stock in 2015. Go look at the balance sheet.  Price action is strong...holding above the old ceiling - now support. Upside into the 60s by late spring.

12pm update - minor index chop

The main indexes start the week with very minor chop. The sp' is holding the 1800s, Nasdaq 4000s, with the Dow in the 16000s. Metals remain lower, but set for a minor bounce...Gold -$22. Miners under severe pressure, GDX -3.7%



Not much to add..on what is a quiet start to the month...

VIX update from Mr P.

time for tea :)

11am update - metals and miners under pressure

The last month of the year is not starting well for the precious metals or the mining stocks. Gold is -$22, with Silver -2.5%. Naturally, the miners are lower, with GDX -3.5%. The bigger weekly/monthly charts are offering weakness into end year.

SLV, daily3 - H/S

GDX, monthly


*I was short-stopped from SLV @ 18.77..will consider a re-short on any bounce to 18.95/19.05

H/S downside target remains 17.00..monthly charts are offering the 15s.

I realise for many out there..its already an annoying week.    I suggest large quantities.

10am update - viable upside... jumps!

A new month, and the upper bollinger bands on the big monthly charts (naturally) jump higher. Dow 16500, sp'1840s, and Trans 7400s are viable this month. On the flip side, precious metals are now offering Gold $1150, and Silver $16s.

Dow' monthly'2, rainbow

GLD, monthly


Mr Market sure doesn't have to reach those upper bol' levels this month. Hell, even the sp'1820s would be another major achievement. On balance though, Dow 16400/600 does seem very viable.

With continued QE - particularly heavy this week, there is little reason why we won't be in the sp'1820/30s by the end of this week.

Notable strength in AAPL  breaking into the 560s. Upside target zone remains 580/600 by year end.

10.31am..short-stopped out of SLV @ 18.77... I think I caught the low of the day.

Downside target for SLV remains 17 though..within the next 2-3 weeks.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Equity futures are effectively flat, we're set to open at sp'1805. Precious metals are lower, Gold -$13, Silver -1.3%. USD is +0.2%. With heavy QE this week, equity bears face a mighty tough task just to hold the market flat this week.



Well, its the last month of the year.. 21 trading days left of 2013 ! Good luck everyone!

Notable early movers: DRYS, +3%,  AAPL, +0.5%, and GDX -1.5%

*with no sig' QE until tomorrow, bears have a small window today..but not much.