Lets take our regular look at ten of the world equity markets.
USA - Dow
The mighty Dow settled +2428pts (11.1%) to 24345. However, that still made for a bearish monthly settlement under the key 10MA (26374). Prime/minimum downside target is the 19722/18591 gap zone. If the March low of 18213 is taken out, its open air to the 61.8% fib' retrace of 15293, which is notably near the early 2016 low.
Germany – DAX
The economic powerhouse of the EU - Germany, saw the DAX settle +915pts (9.2%) to 10857. With an April settlement under the key 10MA, the German market has to be seen as remaining mid/long term broken.
Japan – Nikkei
Japanese equities powerfully rebounded, the Nikkei settling +1276pts (6.7%) to 20193. A third consecutive monthly settlement under the key 10MA... remaining mid/long term broken.
Brazil – Bovespa
Brazilian equities caught a bounce, settling +7486pts (10.2%) to 80505. A third consecutive monthly close under the 10MA.... mid/long term broken.
Russia - RTSI
Russian equities settled +110pts (10.9%) to 1125. The close under key price threshold of 1200, and a third month under the key 10MA.... remaining mid/long term broken.
India – SENSEX
Indian equities settled +4249pts (14.4%) to 33717. A third monthly close under the 10MA... remaining mid/long term broken.
China – Shanghai comp'
China was the laggard in April, settling +109pts (4.0%) to 2860... notably still under the 10MA. The PBOC are doubtless massively meddling to prop things up.
South Africa – Dow
South Africa lead the way higher in April, settling +195pts (14.6%) to 1532, but that still made for a fourth consecutive monthly settlement under the key 10MA.
Hong Kong – Hang Seng
Hong Kong settled +1040pts (4.4%) to 24643, and that made for a fourth consecutive monthly settlement under the key 10MA.
Australia – AORD
Australian equities settled very powerfully higher, +487pts (9.5%) to 5597. A third consecutive bearish monthly settlement under the key 10MA... mid/long term broken.
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Summary
All ten of the world equity markets settled net higher for April.
South Africa and India lead the way higher, with Hong Kong and China lagging.
All ten markets settled below their respective monthly 10MA, which made for another bearish monthly close, as world markets remain mid/long term broken.
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| May'2... with London still on lockdown |
Looking ahead
A somewhat lighter week is ahead...
Earnings:
M - MOS, SWKS, THC, TSN, SHAK, CAR, CHGG, AIG, HTZ, RACE, FANG, SCCO, TACO, TREX, XPO
T - NEM, MPC, REGN, FCAU, ATVI, EA, DIS, BYND, DVN, W, PINS, OXY, SPCE
W - GOLD, GM, LYFT, GRUB, PYPL, SQ, SHOP, CVS, PTON, ZNGA, WYNN, TWLO, ETSY
T - BMY, MRNA,TEVA, BHC, VIAC, BUD, YETI, RTX, HLT, UBER, JBLU, ROKU, TTD, DBX, OLED, GPRO, STMP, NET, FSLR
F - BLMN, LEA, CRON
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Econ-data:
M - Vehicle sales, Factory orders
T - PMI/ISM serv', intl' trade
W - ADP jobs, EIA Pet'
T - Weekly jobs, productivity/costs, consumer credit, Fed bal' sheet (4.30pm)
F - Monthly jobs, wholesale trade, RIG count.
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| Full moon will be Thursday May'7th. |
Final note
April was a monstrously bullish month for world equities, but it just made for a bounce/retrace, of the Feb>March collapse wave. May sure didn't start on a bullish note though, with next Monday not likely to open so pretty.
The ultimate issue remains... when the lockdown ends, how many of the traumatised sheep will return to the shopping malls, be willing to step onto an airplane, or take a cruise? Sure.... some will, but many won't, at least for some months.
My perception is that the mainstream cheerleaders remain largely in denial about the societal shockwave that has occurred, and the mid/long term economic implications. Again, I'm not talking about 'all', but if just 10% of people permanently change their life styles - such as working from home, or avoiding air travel, it will have very significant implications.
There is also the matter of the Fed. Have you noticed increasing speculative chatter about when Print Central might start buying stocks/ETFs? It should be clear.... its coming. Personally, I would expect the Fed to start buying stocks/ETFs with sp'1700/1500. But hell, maybe they'll even start around 2100/2000 ?
In any case, further trillions of stimulus - such as an infrastructure bill (largely funded via the Fed), are coming, as we're a little further along the twisted and dark path... within the twilight zone.
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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EDT on Monday.