Volatility...minor chop

The VIX saw some interesting intra-day swings, having hit a high of 14.61 and an early morning low of 12.39, the VIX closed up just 1.2% @ 13.74. Near term trend looks very choppy, the daily charts offer VIX 16.0, however the big VIX 20 looks unlikely for at least another 2-3 weeks.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

The last six trading days in VIX land have been pretty unstable. So far, the bears are just not seeing any sustained significant gains.

Indeed, as this morning showed, the VIX can easily still drop 5-10% without too much trouble.

As it is, I can't see VIX breaking any higher than 16 this week. Perhaps the tail end of next week will offer the first chance at a challenge of the big 20 threshold, but certainly..not this side of Easter.

more later, on the indexes

Closing Brief - messy day

The main indexes closed moderately lower, after opening gains failed to hold. The intra-day reversal was interesting, but it simply isn't that significant in size. USD saw strong gains, which kept downward pressure on the metals and Oil, although Silver and Oil still managed to close up.


sp'60min

Summary

A bit of a messy day to start the week. I think whats clear is that we're back to random EU news reports which are able to swing the market somewhat wildly at times.

The Cyprus issue hasn't gone away, and the longer term ramifications are indeed severe. All those deluded bulls who think everything is again 'fixed' have an interesting and likely 'difficult' time this coming April-May.
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In terms of price action, its hard to know what we're dealing with. We did break the 1563 high at the open, so..bulls do have that to tout today.

I'm still guessing we'll make a spike high in the 1570s this week.

As it is, I won't be looking to do any index shorts/ VIX longs until after the Easter break.
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more later, on the VIX and the Indexes.

3pm update - messing with traders heads

The market is rattling a fair few today on both sides of the fence. Bulls chasing the open got burnt...bears chasing the earlier decline..just got burnt too. Its a nasty market..and it seems we're back to a phase of random EU news reports..all about word games/interpretation.


sp'60min

Summary

From a micro-count perspective, its probably pointless to be guessing, but I'll do it anyway.

Still seeking the sp'1570s..to conclude a final small blue'V.

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*metals are showing underlying strength..and Oil is certainly higher from the earlier drop.

I'll look to hold SLV (long) overnight. 
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back at the close.

2pm update - minor declines

The market is still seeing minor declines, but it is indeed 'minor'. The VIX has fought to break the recent high, but looks failing now. I really can't see today's action as anything other than minor chop. USD is +0.5%, although Oil and Silver remain slightly higher..with Gold marginally lower.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

Near term action looks just like minor chop, with the underlying upside still lurking. Bears still need to be super cautious in the days..and indeed..weeks ahead.
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*I'm still long Silver, which is higher, but am looking for a jump higher, perhaps tomorrow.

12pm update - nothing significant

The market breaks (fractionally) the 1563 high, but now we've seen a reversal.  Yet, its really not that significant. Near term cycle still suggest upside into the 1570s. USD remains higher, VIX is cooling down after its mini ramp. Precious metals still trying to climb.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

I suppose you could count this mornings action as a micro wave'2 of sub wave'3.

I don't know, its just a vague guess, but what I do know, I sure don't smell any major downside for this week.

The bears are surely going to have to wait until next week.

*there is big POMO on Thursday to conclude the trading week...and Month. Not exactly bearish!
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VIX update




back at 2pm

11am update - creeping weakness

Market is facing increasing weakness the higher we go. Importantly, the bulls did break the 1563 high, and the 1570s remain viable within the next few days. Bears really can't expect anything significant until next week. Metals are trying to rebound.


sp'60min

Summary

Not much to say, I can't take this mornings micro-reversal as anything to be taken seriously.

The 1570s still seem viable, and arguably, there is no point taking index shorts into the long 3 day weekend.
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back at 12pm

10am update - new highs

Good morning, and welcome to a shortened Easter trading week! The indexes open moderately higher, and we've just broken the recent sp'1563.62 high. USD is moderately higher, with the VIX -7%, back in the 12s. Oil is higher, precious metals 'trying' to rally.


sp'60min

VIX 60min

Summary

So the Cyprus issue is now seemingly resolved for the near term, although it will be interesting to see what happens when the banks do re-open.
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It would appear the market that will trade broadly higher for another few days, and slowly melt into the 1570s.

For me, the only issue is whether we end up peaking in the 1580s.

As I noted at the weekend, weekly charts are all offering significant downside, but that it will likely take some 4-6 weeks to full play out.

Bears need to remain patient !
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*I remain long SLV, looking for an exit today/tomorrow.