Thursday 8 March 2012

Urghh...rough day for the bears

Rough day for the bears, we are a mere 13pts from the recent high of 1378

SP'60 min cycle

The close above the 10MA is a real problem.

VIX 60min - a slightly higher low (small consolation)

Bears getting whacked..again

Tuesdays significant decline is now entirely wiped away. If the market decides the jobs numbers are good tomorrow morning, and that the Greeks are 'saved', then we could easily jump to new highs, and that completely throws everything into scary new territory.

The only thing that could allow bears to justifiably get confident, is a move below 1340 within the next few days. Anything else, and the mainstream talk will swing right back to 1450/1550.

Right now, a move below <1340 looks a long way down, almost out of reach.

More later..probably.

SP' near term..just an idea

Hmm...well, 1363 is holding as the line so far. We're selling back a bit, but nothing dramatic yet.

This chart outlines a simple possible count. Maybe we'll pull lower to 1320/10 -no later than Monday/Tue...then a tiny '4 bounce..before a final'5 lower to around 1260.

Clearly, we're looking for a significant down day - at least as big as Tuesday, if not more..+ follow through!

The 1260 level remains VERY problematic for the bears in the mid-term. It is highly likely to hold, and be the starting point for a major bounce. Whether its the start of a last 'wave'5'.....or a lower high...thats the ultimate question right now.


Market stuck

Obviously we are a few pts above the earlier line. However, 60min MACD cycle IS rolling, the underyling trend change IS underway. Whether that can translate into a significant move into the close, and idea.

Greek PPI nonsense at 3pm, a 'sell the news' event? the trenches

Bears spooked in pre-market

So we might open around the 1363 level. That will give many bears who shorted yesterday (including yours truly) a headache to start the day.

However, a two day bounce after the first real down day is not that unusual. See the action around Nov'14, and Dec'12.  What matters today is that the initial gains are quickly eroded, and preferably. end with a red close.

A close of -0.5% or more would be pretty much a victory right now.

Lets see if the bears can do it!

Just noticed this...

So, the Greeks plan to announce the bond agreement details at 6am UK.... 1am EST Friday.


I mentioned UVXY yesterday, which appears to be the new alternative to the failing TVIX.

UVXY is up over 450% pre-market. Looks like its done a 1 for 6 reverse split. Statistical decay sure does make these things problematic to hold for more than a few weeks (normally!).

3 Charts to inspire the Bears

Its late, so this will be the last posting before tomorrow!

Here are 3 charts that should inspire any bear, and possibly make any permabull question whether the cheerleaders touting sp'1500/1700 for this year have a chance.

The FTSE 100 index -monthly

The European indexes have been more clean - and respectful of chart theory than the US indexes (due to less manipulation, or trader delusion?). Whatever the reason, a very clear H/S formation is apparent since the March 2009 low.
Ultimately, a break below the 4750 would confirm the pattern, and open the door to a full test of the original the 3500 level.

*I intend to look at all the major world indexes, probably in a weekend post.

CRX - The commodity equity index

The CRX remains one of the near perfect bearish charts out there still. We did briefly break back above last summers old support - now resistance levels. We are very close to major snap levels. A 75/100pt fall to the low 800s is very possible by end of next week.

US Dollar index - near term

Bears would prefer to see 80.25 to suggest the bull flag is confirmed. 82 would completely confirm the theory, and open up the targets of 83 and 88. A move above 90 would be especially devastating for the metals.

Okay, that will do for tonight.