Thursday 22 December 2016

The sleepy equity market

US equity indexes closed moderately weak, sp -5pts @ 2265. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.8% and -0.6% respectively. VIX settled -1.6% @ 11.27. Near term outlook still threatens the sp'2243/31 zone.. as the daily price momentum cycles are set to turn bearish before the Christmas break.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

It was an especially sleepy day in equity land, with the sp' seeing a trading range just 6pts wide.

VIX opened with a flash print spiky low of 10.93 - the lowest level since Aug'2015. Despite some moderate equity weakness, the VIX still closed lower, for a fifth consecutive day - the worse run since mid October. A sporadic jump to the 12/13s is possible before the three day Christmas break. Certainly though, the key 20 threshold looks out of range for at least another month.
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My home market of the UK...

FTSE 100, monthly, 20yr


The FTSE is currently trading above multi-decade resistance of 7k. Any Dec', or Jan' close >7K would be exceptionally bullish, and bode for 8k by late spring. Things only turn bearish with another 1 or 2 months of repeated failures to break/hold 7K.
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Today was the winter solstice...


 ... the long march toward summer 2017 can begin :)  Thats bullish, right?

Goodnight from London