Saturday 5 May 2018

Weekend update - World equity markets

It was a very mixed month for world equity markets, with net monthly changes ranging from +10.0% (Greece), +6.8% (France), +4.3% (Germany), +0.2% (USA), -2.5% (China), to -7.3% (Russia). Near term outlook offers upside into the summer.

Lets take our regular look at ten of the world equity markets

USA - Dow

The mighty Dow settled +60pts (0.2%) at 24163, the first monthly gain since January. Note the key 10MA at 24042. Underlying MACD (green bar histogram) cycle is ticking lower for a fourth month, and at the current rate, we'll see a bearish cross in June. For that to be avoided, the equity bulls are going to need a May settlement around 25000,

Best guess: renewed upside into/across the summer. First big target is the Jan' historic high of 26616. The next key Fibonacci level is 26702. Any price action above that level, would be a hyper bullish long term signal, and suggest even if the sp'500 gets stuck within my target zone of 2950/3047, that regardless of however big a retrace we see, sp'4-5k would be due within a subsequent multi-year up wave. sp'5K would equate to around Dow 40k.

Germany – DAX

The economic powerhouse of the EU, saw the DAX +515pts (4.3%) to 12612. This was the most bullish month since Sept'2017. Early May is seeing an attempt to re-take the key 10MA. Core support is around 11500. Unless that is broken, there is still a chance for a push to 14/15k before this has all played out.

Japan – Nikkei

Japanese equities ended April on a strong note, settling +1308pts (6.3%) at 22467, notably back above the key 10MA. A push to 24/25k seems viable by late summer.

China – Shanghai comp'

The Chinese market struggled for a third month, -78pts (2.5%) to 3082, the lowest close since July 2016. S/t bearish, and that only changes until a monthly close >3500, which is a considerable way up.

Brazil – Bovespa

Brazilian equities saw a third month of chop, settling +749pts (0.9%) to 86115. The m/t trend remains bullish, with the upper bollinger offering 89/90k within a few months. Higher commodity prices - especially oil/nat' gas, would really help to inspire the Bovespa upward to new historic highs.

Russia - RTSI

It was a very rough April for Russian equities, with the RTSI net lower by -90pts (7.3%) to 1153. However, that was a major improvement from a spike low of 1042. S/t bearish, until the 1200 threshold is retaken.

France – CAC

It was a powerfully bullish month for French equities, +353pts (6.8%) to 5520. Price structure is very clean, with a breakout in April 2017, a high in Jan'2018, and then a back test in March. New multi-year highs look probable, with soft target of the June 2007 high of 6168. The strength in the CAC bodes bullish for most other European markets.

Spain – IBEX

Spanish equities saw a strong April, +380pts (4.0%) to 9980. Broader price structure since early 2017 is a somewhat messy bull flag. To have renewed confidence of a challenge to massive resistance of 12k, the Spanish bulls need to see a monthly close >10500.

Australia - AORD

After three consecutive net monthly declines, the Australian equity market finally caught a bid, settling +202pts (3.4%) to 6071. The m/t trend remains bullish from early 2016. Soft target is the Nov'2007 historic high of 6873, which is a clear 10% higher.

Greece - Athex

Greek equities are holding the m/t trend from early 2016, with the Athex +77pts (10.0%) to 858. Things only get seriously bullish with a push >1300, and that is an extremely long way up, and does not look viable before the next recession.


A very mixed month for world equities, with eight markets net higher, and two net lower.

Broadly, the Brazilian, US, and German markets are the strongest, whilst China and Russia are struggling.

Most of the world equity markets are holding m/t bullish trends from 2016/12.

Looking ahead

Notable earnings:  DIS, NVDA

M - Consumer credit (3pm)
T -
W - PPI, wholesale trade, EIA
T - CPI, weekly jobs, US T-budget
F - Import/export prices, consumer sent'

If you value my work, subscribe to me.
For details:

Have a good weekend

*the next post on this page will likely appear 6pm EST on Monday.