VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Despite the gains, the VIX remains relatively subdued.
We're still seeing sporadic jumps to the upside, but for now.. sustained action above the key 20 threshold looks out of range.
--
more later... on the indexes
Monday, 7 December 2015
VIX rebounds
With equity indexes closing broadly weak, the VIX was naturally on the rise, settling +6.9% @ 15.84 (intra high 17.18). Near term outlook remains for the sp'2115/20 zone, which would likely equate to VIX 12/11s at the time of the next FOMC (Dec'16th).
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Despite the gains, the VIX remains relatively subdued.
We're still seeing sporadic jumps to the upside, but for now.. sustained action above the key 20 threshold looks out of range.
--
more later... on the indexes
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Despite the gains, the VIX remains relatively subdued.
We're still seeing sporadic jumps to the upside, but for now.. sustained action above the key 20 threshold looks out of range.
--
more later... on the indexes
Closing Brief
US equities closed broadly lower, sp -14pts @ 2077 (intra low 2066). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.9% and -1.6% respectively. Near term outlook remains for the sp'2115/20 zone... but any daily close under the 200dma (2064) would be a real problem.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: the fifth consecutive hour of moderate chop.. flooring at 2068... and then coming somewhat close to a close in the 2080s...
--
With Oil trading well under the key $40 threshold it was not surprising to see the market start the week on a negative note, but I sure did not expect the 2060s... well over a 50% retrace of the Friday gains.
Regardless of the net daily decline, the market appears to have solidified a floor of sp'2066, and now looks set for another push above last the high of last Wed' morning @ 2104.
First key target remains 2115/20 zone.
It remains possible the market will push to the 2150/70 zone.. before things get overly toppy.
--
more later... on the VIX
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: the fifth consecutive hour of moderate chop.. flooring at 2068... and then coming somewhat close to a close in the 2080s...
--
With Oil trading well under the key $40 threshold it was not surprising to see the market start the week on a negative note, but I sure did not expect the 2060s... well over a 50% retrace of the Friday gains.
Regardless of the net daily decline, the market appears to have solidified a floor of sp'2066, and now looks set for another push above last the high of last Wed' morning @ 2104.
First key target remains 2115/20 zone.
It remains possible the market will push to the 2150/70 zone.. before things get overly toppy.
--
more later... on the VIX
3pm update - oil remains a problem
US equities remain under pressure from the continuing collapse in Oil, currently -6.2% in the $37s. For now, there is no sign of a floor, and equities are clearly being restrained from seeing a rebound. A daily close in the sp'2080s looks a little difficult... the real issue is whether <2066 in the closing hour.
sp'60min
USO'daily2
Summary
A real train wreck in the Oil/energy sector, but its not just there.. as the miners are similarly under severe downward pressure.
notable weakness...
ETF of GDX -4.8%, as Gold -$13, with Silver -1.6%.
-
One solice to the equity bulls... the 200dma is so far holding (2064)...
sp'60min
USO'daily2
Summary
A real train wreck in the Oil/energy sector, but its not just there.. as the miners are similarly under severe downward pressure.
notable weakness...
ETF of GDX -4.8%, as Gold -$13, with Silver -1.6%.
-
One solice to the equity bulls... the 200dma is so far holding (2064)...
2pm update - the battle continues
US equities are clearly struggling to hold the morning low of sp'2066. The severe declines in Oil, -5.7% in the $37s are a primary downward pressure on the broader market. Metals remain weak, Gold -$12, with Silver -1.5% in the low $14s.
sp'60min
GLD, daily
Summary
So.. we're somewhat stuck in the 2075/66 zone.. as Oil is really restraining what should be a latter day recovery.
Rough start to the week for those long... and no doubt.. some of those bears who covered last Friday in the 2080/90s are real annoyed right now.
.. although less annoyed than those who were naked short GMCR.
--
notable weakness...
Precious metal miners, the ETF of GDX -4.0%
Last weeks gains are being quickly eroded. $1045 is not going to hold as a multi-year low for Gold.. is it?
sp'60min
GLD, daily
Summary
So.. we're somewhat stuck in the 2075/66 zone.. as Oil is really restraining what should be a latter day recovery.
Rough start to the week for those long... and no doubt.. some of those bears who covered last Friday in the 2080/90s are real annoyed right now.
.. although less annoyed than those who were naked short GMCR.
--
notable weakness...
Precious metal miners, the ETF of GDX -4.0%
Last weeks gains are being quickly eroded. $1045 is not going to hold as a multi-year low for Gold.. is it?
1pm update - battling to hold the morning floor
Price action remains somewhat twitchy, as the sp' battles to hold the earlier floor of 2066. VIX is holding sig' gains of 13% in the 16.80s. Metals remain under USD pressure, Gold -$10. Oil is entirely unable to draw in any buyers today, -5.6% in the $37s.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
The 11am candle offered a rather good floor at 2066... but this past hour has not showed any real follow through.
It remains a somewhat strange day.. other than the continued broad weakness in Oil, there is little reason for today to be anything other than minor weakness.. before resuming higher.
--
notable weakness...
CHK, daily
The horror continues in the oil/gas sector. CHK was in the $29s in summer 2014.. now the $3s look viable in the near term. Even a near 50% jump to $6.00 (into Jan' 2016) would in no way negate the broader downward trend.
--
stay tuned
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
The 11am candle offered a rather good floor at 2066... but this past hour has not showed any real follow through.
It remains a somewhat strange day.. other than the continued broad weakness in Oil, there is little reason for today to be anything other than minor weakness.. before resuming higher.
--
notable weakness...
CHK, daily
The horror continues in the oil/gas sector. CHK was in the $29s in summer 2014.. now the $3s look viable in the near term. Even a near 50% jump to $6.00 (into Jan' 2016) would in no way negate the broader downward trend.
--
stay tuned
12pm update - time for a latter day recovery
US equities have seen a surprisingly strong retrace of the Friday gains... with an intra low of sp'2066, with VIX maxing out at 17.18. Equity bulls need to claw back at least half of the losses, with a daily close in the 2080s. Commodities remain weak, Gold -$10, with Oil -5.3% in the $37s.
sp'15min
VIX'60min
Summary
*hourly VIX candle sure is spiky
--
This mornings declines are certainly far stronger than seemed viable, not least as there really isn't any spooky news. Clearly though... the weakness in Oil is downward pressure for broader market sentiment.
Considering Oil is now in the $37s.. there is again threat of a bounce... but that will dependent on the next pair of inventory reports.
-
In the near term, renewed equity upside still seems due... at least to 2115/20.
--
VIX update from Mr T.
--
time for lunch
sp'15min
VIX'60min
Summary
*hourly VIX candle sure is spiky
--
This mornings declines are certainly far stronger than seemed viable, not least as there really isn't any spooky news. Clearly though... the weakness in Oil is downward pressure for broader market sentiment.
Considering Oil is now in the $37s.. there is again threat of a bounce... but that will dependent on the next pair of inventory reports.
-
In the near term, renewed equity upside still seems due... at least to 2115/20.
--
VIX update from Mr T.
--
time for lunch
11am update - Monday morning washout
US equities have continued to slip, with the sp' retracing almost 50% of the Friday gains. USD is holding gains of 0.4% in the DXY 98.60s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$10. Oil continues to implode, -5.0% in the $37s, as most are starting to realise that OPEC has effectively dissolved.
sp'60min
USO' daily2
Summary
Again, it is probably important to keep in mind that the only Fed official to appear this week - Bullard, is set to appear this hour. Any talk alluding to 'the economy is fine.. rates can rise' would be the excuse for a latter day recovery.
11am is a typical floor time.. so the threat is now against the bears... for rest of today.
--
notable weakness... energy/commodities
CHK -9%
CNX -14%
RIG -3%
SDRL -9%
Copper miners, FCX -7%, TCK -9%
Precious metals, GDX -1.9%
--
Meanwhile in London city...
About as good as it gets.. for a late afternoon in early December.
-
time to cook
-
11.09am.. spike floors from sp'2069
We've a provisional turn.. around 11am.
-
11.27am.. sp'2068... a full 50% retrace of the Friday gains... Hmm
Oil breaking new lows, -5.3%... and that sure ain't helping the broader market right now.
Time for Bullard to appear...
11.43am.. Clear floor from sp'2066.... but the retrace sure was overly big.
sp'60min
USO' daily2
Summary
Again, it is probably important to keep in mind that the only Fed official to appear this week - Bullard, is set to appear this hour. Any talk alluding to 'the economy is fine.. rates can rise' would be the excuse for a latter day recovery.
11am is a typical floor time.. so the threat is now against the bears... for rest of today.
--
notable weakness... energy/commodities
CHK -9%
CNX -14%
RIG -3%
SDRL -9%
Copper miners, FCX -7%, TCK -9%
Precious metals, GDX -1.9%
--
Meanwhile in London city...
-
time to cook
-
11.09am.. spike floors from sp'2069
We've a provisional turn.. around 11am.
-
11.27am.. sp'2068... a full 50% retrace of the Friday gains... Hmm
Oil breaking new lows, -5.3%... and that sure ain't helping the broader market right now.
Time for Bullard to appear...
11.43am.. Clear floor from sp'2066.... but the retrace sure was overly big.
10am update - opening weakness
US equities open moderately lower, but it only makes for a minor retrace of the Friday 42pt hyper-gain. Whilst the USD is +0.6% in the DXY 98.80s, commodities are under pressure.. Gold -$10, whilst Oil is -3.7% in the $38s.
sp'60min
Summary
There is little to add.
No doubt a few bears will be getting overly excited at the opening weakness, but really... it won't likely be sustained. Equity bears saw a bonus washout last week.... it ain't happening again this week... right?
--
The only bear happy about the GMCR deal this morning.. the Coca Cola polar bear.
see Bloomberg for the 2014 share purchase: HERE.
GMCR, daily
Back to the levels from mid-May. More on GMCR later...
--
time a little sun... back soon
-
10.32am... Market should floor around 2075/73...
Hmm
sp'60min
Summary
There is little to add.
No doubt a few bears will be getting overly excited at the opening weakness, but really... it won't likely be sustained. Equity bears saw a bonus washout last week.... it ain't happening again this week... right?
--
The only bear happy about the GMCR deal this morning.. the Coca Cola polar bear.
see Bloomberg for the 2014 share purchase: HERE.
GMCR, daily
Back to the levels from mid-May. More on GMCR later...
--
time a little sun... back soon
-
10.32am... Market should floor around 2075/73...
Hmm
Pre-Market Brief
Good morning. US equity futures are a touch lower, sp -2pts, we're set to open at 2089. USD is back on the rise +0.5% in the DXY 98.80s. Metals are weak, Gold -$5, whilst Oil is -2.9%... trading under the $40 threshold.
sp'60min
Summary
With little scheduled this week, it should favour the equity bulls.
First obvious target is a daily close above the recent high of sp'2104. Once that is achieved, it is a straight forward move to 2115/20 zone.
For now, it really just seems to be a question of when new historic highs are hit... not if.
--
Doomer chat, Hunter with Celente
As ever, make of that... what you will.
--
Economics chatter, Long with Laggner
Some interesting points in this video.... but when it comes to Gold and the miners, Laggner is grossly out of his mind, but then.. he is one of the promoters.
--
Overnight Asia action
Japan: solid gains of 1.0%... set to re-take the 20k threshold
China: +0.3% @ 3536.. still a little shaky.
-
*Fed official Bullard is set to speak on the economy later this morning, Mr Market will no doubt be listening for any chatter on int' rates.
Have a good Monday
--
8.46am... Takeover news....
GMCR, bought out by JAB holdng for $13.9bn.
GMCR stock +74% @ $90... someone who is long the calls is having a good start to the week with that.
9.08am... and something to consider... on the flip side.
There have to be a few retail amateurs out there.. short GMCR on margin.. who have just been zeroed out... and will lose their house today.
Scary stuff.
sp'60min
Summary
With little scheduled this week, it should favour the equity bulls.
First obvious target is a daily close above the recent high of sp'2104. Once that is achieved, it is a straight forward move to 2115/20 zone.
For now, it really just seems to be a question of when new historic highs are hit... not if.
--
Doomer chat, Hunter with Celente
As ever, make of that... what you will.
--
Economics chatter, Long with Laggner
Some interesting points in this video.... but when it comes to Gold and the miners, Laggner is grossly out of his mind, but then.. he is one of the promoters.
--
Overnight Asia action
Japan: solid gains of 1.0%... set to re-take the 20k threshold
China: +0.3% @ 3536.. still a little shaky.
-
*Fed official Bullard is set to speak on the economy later this morning, Mr Market will no doubt be listening for any chatter on int' rates.
Have a good Monday
--
8.46am... Takeover news....
GMCR, bought out by JAB holdng for $13.9bn.
GMCR stock +74% @ $90... someone who is long the calls is having a good start to the week with that.
9.08am... and something to consider... on the flip side.
There have to be a few retail amateurs out there.. short GMCR on margin.. who have just been zeroed out... and will lose their house today.
Scary stuff.
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