Thursday 11 August 2016

A touch of cooling

US equities closed moderately weak, sp -6pts @ 2175. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.4% and -0.7% respectively. VIX settled +3.3% @ 12.05. Near term outlook offers threatens the 2168/64 gap zone, before renewed upside to the 2190s, as broader price action remains outright bullish.




Very little to add, on what was another pretty subdued day.

The lower daily bollinger will be around 2160 in a few days.. and frankly, at best, equity bears might manage the gap zone of 2168/64 before resuming higher into the weekend. The sp'2200s remain due.. with 2225/50 in September.

VIX climbed for a third consecutive day... but is still only in the 12s. The key 20 threshold looks out of range until (at least) the latter half of September.

Post BREXIT gains

UK, monthly

My home market of the UK continues to power upward. Any monthly close >7K would make for a hugely significant multi-decade breakout, and would bode for far higher levels into spring 2017. Of course, another failure would be hugely bearish, and its notable that the BoE's latest QE bond buying program has already run into problems as existing holders of mid/long duration GILTS are refusing to sell... at any price. Maybe the BoE should just start buying stocks instead?

Goodnight from London