Monday 6 May 2013

Volatility back in the twilight zone

With chronically low trading volume, the algo-bots are in total control, and it is the default 'melt upward' action that is going to kill the VIX lower across the entire week. VIX closed slightly lower, -1.5% @ 12.66 Baring some 'major news/event', volatility looks set to stay low across the summer.




So, VIX is in the 12s, and the 11s look a given at some point this week.

The only issue is whether we see 10s, which I think would be the lowest level since Spring 2007.

In fact, the grander issue of the summer is arguably whether we'll see VIX <10, before this relentless equity rally from Oct'2011 is complete.

more later..on those melting indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes (except Dow) all closed moderately higher, lead by the Transports. As expected, the algo-bots appear to have total free reign over the market, and that looks set to continue for the entire week, if not a few 'months'.



What to say about this day of nothing?


*As an options player,  I can only console myself knowing that last Fridays exit was a good idea. Premium is being eroded on everything.

The daily, weekly, monthly charts are ALL bullish.

Even as a permabear....I can't deny what this twisted market is back to, and it sure don't look like its headed down any time soon.

I realise a fair few out there are seeking a turn at current levels, but..I just don't see that happening anymore. Bears had their chance...and failed.

Minor bits and pieces across the evening.

3pm update - Transports holding strong gains

Whilst the headline indexes (Dow, SP, Nasdaq) are only moderately higher, it is the old leader - Transports, that is again leading the way, +1.4% in the 6300s. Is it really too much to envision the tranny in the low 7000s within 3-4 months?

Trans' weekly


Near zero volume...thus expected, the algo-bots are in total control.

Absolutely NO reason why tomorrow will be any different.

back at the close to summarise todays 'nothing'.

2pm update - more nothing

Market breaks to sp'1619s, although the Transports remains the big mover of the day, +1.4% in the 6300s. Oil is holding onto moderate gains of 0.5%, whilst the precious metals are still a touch red. Generally though, its dead out there. VIX -0.5% @ 12.78

Trans, daily


It is this sort of 'nothing happening' day that now seems set for the rest of this week.

It looks like bears had their last opportunity last week..and failed.

There could easily be 3-4 months of this 'nothing' to go. Urghh

*Laszlo 'the ruler ' Birinyi is now looking for sp'1900s.. see bloomberg.

The largely useless Dow'30...

back at 3

12pm update - slow motion melt

The main indexes are somewhat higher, lead by the old leader - Transports, now in the 6300s. Oil is a touch higher after earlier minor declines. Precious metals are slightly weak, but holding within a large (arguably still a bear flag) up channels.



Very little to say, and frankly, that will probably be the case for much of the week.

Oil is up, and I won't be chasing it higher at the current levels. 

VIX update from Mr T.

Indeed, its dead out there.

I'm almost inclined to suggest 'turn ya screens off until August'

back at 2pm

11am update - Transports leading higher

On what might be the lowest trading volume of the year so far, the market is in melt mode. However, the transports are not so much melting higher, and are actually starting to ramp, +1.4% (a little earlier) in the 6300s. Only another 900pts to go....maybe.

Trans, weekly3, rainbow


I realise the above chart is a bold one, and a very sharp change of outlook from just a week ago. Yet, what else can be assessed from last Thur/Friday? Trend is UP, and Tranny is breaking new ground.

*Oil is lower, but certainly not at the levels that would make going long attractive..yet. Maybe tomorrow instead.

10am update - a week of nothing

Well, we're off and nothing. Indexes largely flat, there really isn't anything going on. Oil is a touch lower. Perhaps a touch of weakness in the morning, but latter day algo-bot melt. That would seem the likely outcome for the entire week.



For those who want a quiet week...this is the week for you!

*I will like USO @ 33.65/60. That seems possible today.

Overall though, quiet day..week ahead.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are flat for...just about everything. Sp' is set to open at 1614. Precious metals and Oil set to open flat. There are no major econ-data points at all this week, so those HFT algo-bots look set to reign over this market the entire week.




Hourly charts are offering a bull flat on the indexes. We could certainly see a little minor weakness in the morning.

All else being the same, we'll then see a latter day recovery/melt.

Baring some news event, could be a rather boring week of melt.

There seems little reason why we can''t break into the 1630s at least, by the Friday close.

USO, gap fill @ 33.60 ?

I'm tempted to go long Oil if we can pull back a bit this morning.