Whilst equities closed moderately weak, the VIX saw some minor swings across the day (intra range 16.74/15.38), settling +1.0% @ 15.62. Near term outlook offers a little further VIX upside, but broadly.. equities look set to continue higher into year end.. and that will keep the VIX subdued.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
VIX remains well under the key 20 threshold.. and is likely to remain so for the vast bulk of the rest of the year.
A brief spike (whether on a rate hike... or year end equity price swings) seems probable to around 20... but not sustainably above.
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US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -2pts at 2086 (intra high 2095). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.9% and +0.4% respectively. Regardless of any further retrace, the broader trend remains bullish into the 2100s... and to new historic highs before year end.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: minor chop, with a daily close under the hourly 10MA.
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So.. a lot of chop.. with increasing weakness into the late afternoon.
Further weakness looks viable early tomorrow... especially in order to hit the basic fib' retrace of 2077.
Regardless... this is no market to short, as price action simply isn't remotely bearish. We look headed broadly higher.
US equities are moderately lower, with a key retrace zone of sp'2080/75. Sustained action <2060 looks extremely unlikely in the near term...and for rest of the year. With the USD +0.2% in the DXY 99.80s, the metals are under pressure, Gold -$9. Oil has lost most of the earlier gains, +0.3%.
sp'60min
USO' daily2
Summary
The drama, huh? A swing from 2095 to the low 2080s.
No doubt some out there are getting overly excited.. but sporadic minor retraces are natural.. and to be expected.
Broadly though... a brief pre-holiday foray into the 2070/60s would do nothing to the broader trend. A net weekly gain looks probable.
Equity price action remains very subdued.. with the sp' stuck in the 2095/87 zone. USD is holding moderate gains of 0.3% in the DXY 99.80s. A monthly close >100 is certainly possible. Metals remain weak, Gold -$9, with Silver -0.5%. Oil has cooled from earlier highs, +0.7% in the $42s.
sp'60min
Summary
Little to add.
Very quiet day... as the equity bears simply are absent.... but then.. so far.. most of the bulls.
The main indexes are increasingly stuck, with the sp'500 unable to break the Friday high of 2097. There is viable near term downside to the 2085/80 zone. VIX remains very subdued, u/c in the 15.50s. Metals are weak, Gold -$7, with Silver -0.3%.
sp'60min
Summary
Price action remains very muted.
*energy stocks are getting somewhat interesting, RIG, SDRL... but are of course almost entirely dependent on how Oil trades.
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notable strength...
CREE, daily
A clear turn last Monday... headed for the 29/30 zone. The 200dma will likely halt the current advance... with better chance of a retrace in early Dec.
CREE is one of many stocks that shows more of a decisive turn at last Monday's low.. than the core index low in Aug/Sept.
It bodes EXCEPTIONALLY badly for those equity bears who are still seeking weakness into year end/early 2016.
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US equity indexes remain slightly positive, with an intra high of sp'2095. VIX is subdued in the 15s. Metals remain broadly weak, Gold -$8, with Silver -0.5%. Oil has built sig' gains of 1.5% in the $42s.
sp'60min
GLD, daily
Summary
Little to add.
There remains threat of a retrace.. but from where might it come from ? There really isn't any data until Wednesday... and by then many traders will already be leaving for a long weekend.
The sp'2100s are coming... along with new historic highs.. before year end.
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notable weakness, AAPL, -0.9%... cooling after hitting upper gap zone resistance of the $120s
US equities are holding minor gains, although a fair number of inidividual stocks (AAPL, DIS) are looking tired.. trading within their respective price gap zones. Price action remains broadly subdued though. Metals are increasingly weak, with Gold -$8 at $1068... the 1062 low is not going to hold.
AAPL, daily
DIS, daily
Summary
Mr Market is likely looking for an excuse to gap lower, with a brief 1.5% washout.. to test the 200dma... with the 50dma soon to be in the 2060s.
Broadly though... any shorts are overly risky.. as the market is clearly pushing upward into year end.
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Here in London city...
A rather pleasent late afternoon, although the nights are icy now... -5c (23f). I guess that is bullish utilities, as energy consumption is now soaring across NW Europe.
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US equities open fractionally higher in the sp'2090s, on what is a very subdued open in holiday week. VIX is moderately higher in the 16s... as the Fed hold a closed meeting. Metals remain weak, Gold -$5. Oil is choppy, -0.2% in the $41s.
sp'60min
Summary
A quiet start to what will likely be a quiet, and short 3.5 trading day week.
For now... there is nothing else to add.
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notable strength
DIS, daily
Close to breaking a new historic high (>122s)... as Star Wars 7 is just a month away.
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Good morning. US equity futures are fractionally higher, sp +1pt, we're set to open at 2090. USD is pushing for the DXY 100 threshold, +0.2% in the 99.80s. Metals remain broadly weak, Gold -$6, whilst Oil is +0.5% in the $42s.
sp'60min
Summary
Price structure on the smaller hourly chart is a baby bull flag, and bodes for the sp'2100s today... before next chance of a reversal into tomorrow/early Wed.
Regardless of any weakness... a net weekly gain looks highly probable... indeed, a monthly close in the 2100s is likely... making a second close above the monthly 10MA
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Update from Oscar
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Doomer chat, Hunter with Fitts.
As ever... make of that.... what you will.
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Overnight Asia action
Japan: CLOSED
China, -0.6% @ 3610. Broadly though, China is holding together very well. With each day above the 3400 threshold... the chances of new lows look extremely unlikely.
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