Volatility a touch higher

With US indexes seeing minor chop across much of the day, the VIX managed to claw.. and hold minor gains, settling +1.8% @ 12.08. Near term outlook is for the VIX to remain within the 14/11 zone, and if sp'1950/60s, then VIX 10s remain a viable multi-month floor.


VIX'daily3

Summary

*I can't recall ever seeing 3 consecutive daily black candles for an index...or in this case..the VIX. Very rare, but then I guess we should expect some quirky price action at such low levels.
--

Little to add.

VIX remains low, even the mid teens look tough to hit in the near term.
--

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

US indexes saw yet another day of minor chop, sp +3pts @ 1927 (1928 new historic high). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled u/c and +0.4% respectively. Near term outlook offers (at best) 1% of upside for the broader market, but then a likely 1.5-2.0% retrace.


sp'60min

Summary

Little to add..on what was another quiet day.

As things are, I do not expect a sig' equity drop tomorrow - regardless of the ECB announcement, however, I am highly suspicious that after a Friday gap higher, the market might see a somewhat strong intraday move lower.

*I remain on the sidelines, will consider a short term index-short..if sp'1945/50 early Friday. 
-

more later..on the VIX

3pm update - micro chop into the close

With the ECB announcement due tomorrow, the market will surely see further micro chop into the close, as few traders will want to take new positions. Metals remain weak, Gold -$2. VIX looks set for the 8th consecutive daily close in the 11s.


vix'daily3

Summary

Broadly speaking, I think there might be a very short term top this Friday morning, with maybe 1.5-2% of downside, but then up into the FOMC of June'18th.
--

As for the ECB, I'm guessing they do lower rates, but most certainly do not launch a QE program.
-

A relatively quiet day...but with a new historic high for the sp'500....Dow/Trans look set to follow.

2pm update - time for some fedspeak

Its that time of the month again, the latest Fed beige book, which might be enough of an excuse to kick the market a little higher..into the sp'1930s. VIX is holding fractional gains..but looks liable to close red...in the 11s..for the 8th day.


sp'daily5

Summary

Well.. lets see if the algo-bots decide the words of the Fed are worthy enough for the sp'1930....probably.
-

Notable weakness, DO (diamond offshore), -3.3% in the $47s. ..ugly daily/weekly charts.
-

2.26pm... the micro chop continues..and sp' should comfortably hold the 1920s..if not have a small chance of 1930 in the closing hour.

Notable strength: AAPL, +1.4%.....the split is next Monday.

1pm update - afternoon melt

Equities look set for an afternoon of algo-bot melt. The sp'1930s are seemingly now a given..whether late today..or Thurs/Friday, makes little difference. Precious metals remain in melt mode, but to the downside...Gold -$2


sp'daily5

Summary

Little to add...on what is day'3 of minor chop..with a touch of underlying upside.

However, we do have the Fed beige book at 2pm...so...stay tuned!
-

time for lunch!

12pm update - market in melt mode

The market continues to grind higher, with the daily/weekly cycles offering sp'1935 in the immediate term. With the indexes turning positive, the metals have flipped negative, Gold -$2. VIX is battling to hold the 12s.


R2K, daily

R2K, weekly2

Summary

*I think it might be useful to focus on the R2K for a while, as an indicator of where the broader market is headed.

If you believe we'll hit at least 1170/80, then that bodes for sp'1950/60.

As it is, we could briefly spike to 1945/50 this Friday, before some kind of sub'4 wave lower - as a fair few other chartists are seeking.

--
VIX update from Mr T.



--
time to cook!

11am update - new historic high for the sp'500

With equity bears lacking any downside power...here we go again, with a new historic high for the sp'500. Equity bulls should be seeking confirmation via the Trans/Dow later today/tomorrow. As the indexes turn positive..the precious metals turn negative... Gold -$3


sp'daily5

Summary

Equity bears still lack downside power..and here we are...in melt mode...to the upside...as usual.

For me, it is a case of 'might short' if sp'1935/40s early Friday morning. That might be a valid spike to get involved with.

Next up...the Fed beige book..at 2pm...but the really big issue is of course what the ECB will announce tomorrow.

*for those closing watching, both the daily/weekly cycles are now offering sp'1935 in the immediate term.

Generally, on a 'spike'..we could go 10/15pts above that...so I suppose..if things are really stupid on Friday...1945/50.


11.29am... equity bears getting short-stopped out..and we're just melting higher.

It'd seem 1935 is a given..the only issue is how high can we spike tomorrow/Friday.

Based on all i've seen over the years...no higher than 1945/50..'briefly'


11.34am.. just updating my R2K daily chart...the more I look at it..the more I like a giant H/S formation...

if so...we'll likely take another TWO weeks before this nonsense finally hits 1170/80..and then stuck.

...and that'd be around the next FOMC of June'18

10am update - minor opening weakness

US indexes open a little lower, but it is certainly nothing of significance. Even the R2K is holding together reasonably well. VIX is battling to hold minor gains of 2-3%...in the low 12s. Metals are a touch higher, along with Oil, +0.5%


sp'60min

Summary

*ISM (services), 56.3...and the indexes start to turn green.
--

In the scheme of things...today could easily play out like the previous two days.

Certainly...most are merely in 'wait' mode, ahead of the ECB.

Notable strength in the shippers, DRYS +3%

--

11.05am....bear with me....kinda busy this morning..

Suffice to say..green indexes...not surprising.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning, futures are a little lower, sp -4pts, we're set to open at 1920. Precious metals are moderately mixed, Gold +$1, with Silver -0.1%. Equity bulls can sustain 20pts of downside to the low 1900s, without seeing any damage to the short term bullish trend.


sp'60min

Summary

*ADP jobs, 179k gains, vs 210exp..so..that is a notable miss
--

I do think price action will be a bit more dynamic today, more so in the afternoon - Fed beige book.

However, many traders will no doubt merely be sitting on the sidelines, waiting to see what the ECB announce tomorrow.
--


Video update from Mr C.


--

Have a good Wednesday

Just another quiet day

It was a quiet day in market land, few traders (understandably) want to get involved ahead of the ECB announcement this Thursday. There remains viable upside to 1930/35 in the immediate term, perhaps as high as 1940/45 on a brief spike this Friday - monthly jobs data.


sp'weekly8

Summary

So...a second day of chop, but this won't last forever.

However, without getting lost in bearish hysteria, we do have 8 green candles in the current rally, with ZERO sign of it ending in the near term. Typically, we might see 2-3 blue candles before some kind of more significant downside.


Looking ahead

Wednesday will see the latest ADP jobs data, but perhaps more importantly, the latest Fed beige book will be issued (2pm), and that will certainly renew attention to what GDP for Q2 might be.

*next sig' QE-pomo is not until Thursday.
--

The following update by Mr Long was posted on YT today, although yes, it is a month old (subscribers come first..after all!)...



--

I remain on the sidelines, and right now, have little interest in getting involved. The next FOMC of June'18th might offer a far better re-short level, somewhere in the sp'1940/60 zone.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US indexes saw a day of minor chop, sp -0.7pts @ 1924. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.8% and -0.2% respectively. Near term outlook is a touch uncertain, ahead of the ECB announcement this Thursday.


sp'daily5

Summary

The broader trend remains unquestionably to the upside - as better reflected on the weekly/monthly charts.

There is certainly a possibility of a retracement back to sp'1905/00 later this week, but regardless, I just can't see a break under the 50 day MA for some weeks.
--

Closing update from Riley



 --
a little more later...