Saturday 26 July 2014

Weekend update - US weekly indexes

It was a mixed week for US equities, with net weekly changes ranging from +0.5% (Trans) to -0.8% (Dow). Near term outlook is for renewed upside, with the giant sp'2000 threshold viable in the latter part of next week. A grander target remains the fib level of the 2130s.

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes


Despite a Friday decline of around -0.6%, the sp' still managed to close the week broadly flat. Most notable, a new historic high of 1991, with the giant 2000 threshold within easy reach next week.

Equity bears need to take out the rising weekly 10MA, which will be in the 1960s next week. Even then, the broader channel offers more significant support around 1900. I sure don't expect to see the 1800s any time soon.

Nasdaq Comp'

The tech' managed moderate gains of 0.4%, the second consecutive weekly gain. There looks to be viable upside to the mid 4500s next week, and 4700/4800s by late summer. The ultimate target remains the March 2000 bubble high of 5132 - although that would seem unlikely this year.


The mighty Dow was the weakest index this week, but still.. the decline of -0.8% barely rates as 'borderline' significant. The broader upward trend continues, and equity bears have little to get excited about unless 16500 is broken under. Current price action is offering the 17300s next week.

NYSE Comp'

The master index closed the week flat, and is indeed a good representation of the overall market. The 11000s look likely next week, whilst 12k looks a tough level to hit until early 2015.


The second market leader slipped for a third consecutive week, with a second weekly close under the 10MA. The lower channel is holding... just, but any break under 1120 will open up 1080 - a critical level. It is important for the R2K to regain the 1170s, which is only 2.5% higher.


The 'old leader'  managed a second consecutive week of gains, +0.5%, along with a new historic high of 8515. The 8600s look viable next week.


So, it was a bit of a mixed week in market land. Equity bulls have another set of new historic highs in the sp'500/Trans, whilst the bears saw some interesting Friday weakness, not least in the R2K.

What should remain clear however, the broader upward trends remain intact on ALL indexes. Even the lagging R2K is still (just) holding above the lower channel. Equity bears need to see the sp' back in the 1950s.. if not below 1900 to have any confidence that a key top has been put in.

Looking ahead

Next week is set to be a very busy one.

-The week starts with PMI service data and pending homes sales.
-Tuesday will see Case-Schiller HPI, and consumer confidence

-Wednesday is a pretty major day...

First, we have Q2 GDP (first reading), market is expecting +3.1%.
Second, the FOMC (2pm). Market (as am I) expects QE-taper'6 (SIX), taking the monthly QE fuel down to $25bn, starting Fri' August 1'.  There will NOT be a Yellen press conf.

Thursday will see jobless claims and the Chicago PMI

The week concludes with the big monthly jobs data, Market is expecting net gains of 233k, with a static headline jobless rate of 6.1%

*next sig' QE-pomo is not until early August. The next QE schedule will be available next Thursday at 3pm

back at the Monday open :)

A mixed week for US equities

It turned out to be a somewhat mixed week in market land. There were notable new historic highs for the sp'500 (1991) and transports (8515), whilst the equity bears managed to knock the market moderately lower into the weekend.




A third consecutive weekly blue candle on the Elder Impulse 'rainbow' chart, and certainly, it is something for the equity bears to be 'curious' about. Yet we are still comfortably above first support of the 10MA, which next Monday will jump into the 1960s.

As things are, I can't take any declines seriously, unless the equity bears can manage a monthly close under the monthly 10MA, which is currently @ 1867, and that sure doesn't look viable for some months.

...and that concludes this week.

Goodnight from London

*the weekend update will be on the US weekly indexes.

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities ended the week on a somewhat weak note, sp -9pts @ 1978. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.4% and -1.0% respectively. Near term outlook is for renewed upside, with the giant 2000 threshold now within reach.





So.. some borderline significant declines for the Dow/R2K today, but overall... price action is still overall bullish. After all, the sp'500 and Trans both broke new historic highs in the past few days, and such highs are important to respect.

The black-fail candle on the Trans - from Wednesday, remains a curious aspect. However, equity bears can't get excited unless we break <8300, and that is another 1.5% lower.

Taken as a whole, I'm still expecting general market upside, with the giant sp'2000 threshold very viable in the latter half of next week.

*I hold moderately long - via the R2K, across the weekend.

a little more later...