VIX'daily3
VIX'weekly
Summary
Little to add.
The next bounce in VIX might easily get stuck in the 17/19 range... if a moderate retrace to the sp'2050s.
--
More later... on the indexes
Friday, 20 February 2015
Volatility melts into the weekend
With equity indexes melting to new historic highs, the VIX was naturally melting lower... settling -6.5% @ 14.30. Across the week, the VIX declined -2.6%. The big 20 threshold looks out of range in the immediate term.
VIX'daily3
VIX'weekly
Summary
Little to add.
The next bounce in VIX might easily get stuck in the 17/19 range... if a moderate retrace to the sp'2050s.
--
More later... on the indexes
VIX'daily3
VIX'weekly
Summary
Little to add.
The next bounce in VIX might easily get stuck in the 17/19 range... if a moderate retrace to the sp'2050s.
--
More later... on the indexes
Closing Brief
US equities melted higher into the weekend, sp +12pts @ 2110. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.6% and 0.3% respectively. The bigger weekly cycles will be offering stiff resistance in the sp'2110/20s, but at best.. any retrace is likely to not go much below sp'2050.
sp'60min
Summary
... and one of the most tedious weeks for some months comes to an end.
Without question, equity doomer bears have been teased by the 'Greek situation'. Perhaps most lame of all, even if a GREXIT does occur end Fed/early March... the market looks like it would sell off maybe 3% or so.... holding the 50dma of sp'2050s.
.. ohh.. and there QE-pomo train arrives in the EU next month.
Lets be clear... a LOT of that 'new money' will be converted to USD, and those dollars will be used to buy.... equities.
-
Have a good weekend.
--
*a full set of bits and pieces to wrap up the week... across the evening.
sp'60min
Summary
... and one of the most tedious weeks for some months comes to an end.
Without question, equity doomer bears have been teased by the 'Greek situation'. Perhaps most lame of all, even if a GREXIT does occur end Fed/early March... the market looks like it would sell off maybe 3% or so.... holding the 50dma of sp'2050s.
.. ohh.. and there QE-pomo train arrives in the EU next month.
Lets be clear... a LOT of that 'new money' will be converted to USD, and those dollars will be used to buy.... equities.
-
Have a good weekend.
--
*a full set of bits and pieces to wrap up the week... across the evening.
3pm update - algo bot melt to conclude the week
US equities remain in classic algo-bot melt mode... hitting endless short-stops, with a new historic high of sp'2107, similarly reflected by the R2K and Dow. Metals remain weak, Gold -$8, with Silver -1.1%. Oil is slipping into the weekend, -2.0%. VIX is in standard cooling mode, -2.6% in the 14.80s.
sp'60min
Summary
Little to add... it has been one of the most tedious weeks in market land for some months. Hell, even the Christmas holiday period seemed more lively. Or maybe its just me?
Notable weakness: oil drillers, RIG/SDRL, both lower by around -2.5%
--
This one is for the Greek finance minister...
--
back at the close.. to wrap up the week
sp'60min
Summary
Little to add... it has been one of the most tedious weeks in market land for some months. Hell, even the Christmas holiday period seemed more lively. Or maybe its just me?
Notable weakness: oil drillers, RIG/SDRL, both lower by around -2.5%
--
This one is for the Greek finance minister...
--
back at the close.. to wrap up the week
2pm update - equities up... metals down
It remains a very tedious day.. within a particularly tedious week. Equities are in seemingly algo-bot melt mode, with particular strength in the momo stocks. Not surprisingly, as market confidence remains high, the precious metals are weak, Gold -$6... set to break soft rising trend support.
GLD, daily
sp'daily5
Summary
*new equity index highs all over the place... the only ones to yet follow... Dow, Trans, and NYSE Comp'
Indeed, right now, we have a rather strong spike-floor for the sp'500.... bodes for 2110/20s early next week. Weekly charts will be offering resistance at that point.
--
re: metals... new multi-year lows look due.... primary Gold target remains the giant $1000 threshold (equating to GLD 95).. but the 900/875 zone looks very viable by late summer.
At that point... we'll probably have a floor.
--
The 'Greek situation' remains tiresome... ohh, the little games that the Greek finance minister is playing right now.
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2.05pm.. Dow breaks a new historic high.
Nasdaq Comp', just 1.1% away from the giant 5k threshold..... and from there... just 132pts until the tech bubble high of March'2000 is taken out.
A monthly close in the 5200s.. and its probably a straight run to 7k. Disturbing thought.
GLD, daily
sp'daily5
Summary
*new equity index highs all over the place... the only ones to yet follow... Dow, Trans, and NYSE Comp'
Indeed, right now, we have a rather strong spike-floor for the sp'500.... bodes for 2110/20s early next week. Weekly charts will be offering resistance at that point.
--
re: metals... new multi-year lows look due.... primary Gold target remains the giant $1000 threshold (equating to GLD 95).. but the 900/875 zone looks very viable by late summer.
At that point... we'll probably have a floor.
--
The 'Greek situation' remains tiresome... ohh, the little games that the Greek finance minister is playing right now.
-
2.05pm.. Dow breaks a new historic high.
Nasdaq Comp', just 1.1% away from the giant 5k threshold..... and from there... just 132pts until the tech bubble high of March'2000 is taken out.
A monthly close in the 5200s.. and its probably a straight run to 7k. Disturbing thought.
12pm update - back to chop
Market has returned to minor chop mode, with most indexes back to flat. With the daily/weekly and monthly cycles all outright bullish, there remains threat of the sp'2110/20s before the next minor retrace. Metals remain a touch weak, Gold -$1, whilst Oil is -1.0%
sp'daily5
vix'daily3
Summary
In the bigger picture, this is all minor noise within a starkly strong up trend... and I'm not referring to the rally from 1980... or 1820.
The 'Greek situation' remains a valid issue, but right now, it'd seem even if Greece decided to go its own way (rather unlikely).. the market might see a brief 2-3% washout... and then 'normal service' would resume.
Notable weakness, oil drillers, RIG/SDRL, both lower by around -1.2%
--
VIX update from Mr T (due)
*seemingly... not appearing today.
-
time for lunch, back at 2pm
sp'daily5
vix'daily3
Summary
In the bigger picture, this is all minor noise within a starkly strong up trend... and I'm not referring to the rally from 1980... or 1820.
The 'Greek situation' remains a valid issue, but right now, it'd seem even if Greece decided to go its own way (rather unlikely).. the market might see a brief 2-3% washout... and then 'normal service' would resume.
Notable weakness, oil drillers, RIG/SDRL, both lower by around -1.2%
--
VIX update from Mr T (due)
*seemingly... not appearing today.
-
time for lunch, back at 2pm
11am update - minor weakness
Equities break lower to sp'2085, but have already clawed back to almost evens. VIX remains relatively subdued, still unable to re-take the 17s. Metals have turned red, Gold -$2. Oil is similarly weak, -0.6%
sp'60min
vix'60min
Summary
*yeah... I fell asleep... its been that tedious a market.
--
Anyway... yes, it remains all small moves. There is simply no significant power on the downside... any drops are being negated very quickly.
It'd seem more likely than not, that we'll break into the 2110s... before we see the first significant net daily decline.
-
Notable strength, momo stocks, TWTR +1.8%, TSLA +2.2%.
sp'60min
vix'60min
Summary
*yeah... I fell asleep... its been that tedious a market.
--
Anyway... yes, it remains all small moves. There is simply no significant power on the downside... any drops are being negated very quickly.
It'd seem more likely than not, that we'll break into the 2110s... before we see the first significant net daily decline.
-
Notable strength, momo stocks, TWTR +1.8%, TSLA +2.2%.
Pre-Market Brief
Good morning. Futures are a little lower, sp -5pts, we're set to open at 2092. US equities look set for the third consecutive net weekly gain. Metals are bouncing, Gold +$6. Oil is moderately higher, +0.5% in the $52s.
sp'60min
Summary
First soft support is sp'2090... that will certainly be vulnerable this morning.
Chatter on Greece continues to grow, and there is increasing resignation that a deal will not be agreed. As I will keep noting, the real problem is not Greece, is it that if Greece leaves, Spain (SIX times bigger) will also follow.
--
A daily/weekly close in the sp'2070s is very possible if market is upset into the weekend... even then, I'd still wonder if we won't see another move higher next week. Weekly charts are offering stiff resistance in the 2110/20s.
As for the VIX (which I'm still long)... until it gets a daily close >17.50, any moves are all minor noise. Right now, the big 20 threshold looks hard to reach, even if the Greeks stall a deal until end month.
Frankly, its been a truly tiresome (if short) week.... thank the gods.. its almost the weekend.
--
*notable early weakness, DE, -0.6%, despite rather good results.
sp'60min
Summary
First soft support is sp'2090... that will certainly be vulnerable this morning.
Chatter on Greece continues to grow, and there is increasing resignation that a deal will not be agreed. As I will keep noting, the real problem is not Greece, is it that if Greece leaves, Spain (SIX times bigger) will also follow.
--
A daily/weekly close in the sp'2070s is very possible if market is upset into the weekend... even then, I'd still wonder if we won't see another move higher next week. Weekly charts are offering stiff resistance in the 2110/20s.
As for the VIX (which I'm still long)... until it gets a daily close >17.50, any moves are all minor noise. Right now, the big 20 threshold looks hard to reach, even if the Greeks stall a deal until end month.
Frankly, its been a truly tiresome (if short) week.... thank the gods.. its almost the weekend.
--
*notable early weakness, DE, -0.6%, despite rather good results.
Daily Wrap
US equities closed moderately mixed, sp -2pts @ 2097 (intra high 2102). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled effectively unchanged. Near term outlook remains offering a minor retrace to the 50dma in the 2050s next week.
sp'daily5
R2K
Summary
*the second market leader - R2K, looks especially strong, having broken into the 1230s.
--
It has been a pretty tedious 3 trading days.... I'll be glad for the weekend, and I'll leave it at that.
-
Econ-chatter - Mr Long.. with Faber
--
Closing update from Riley
--
Looking ahead
The only data of note is PMI manufacturing.
It will be opex... so expect increasing chop/price action into the weekly close.
--
Goodnight from London
sp'daily5
R2K
Summary
*the second market leader - R2K, looks especially strong, having broken into the 1230s.
--
It has been a pretty tedious 3 trading days.... I'll be glad for the weekend, and I'll leave it at that.
-
Econ-chatter - Mr Long.. with Faber
--
Closing update from Riley
--
Looking ahead
The only data of note is PMI manufacturing.
It will be opex... so expect increasing chop/price action into the weekly close.
--
Goodnight from London
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