Volatility moderately higher

Despite equities breaking new historic highs, the VIX was positive across the day, settling +3.9% @ 11.15. Near term outlook is for VIX to remain within the 13/10 zone, and the 9s look very possible if sp'1970/80s into July.


VIX'daily3

Summary

Suffice to say, VIX spikes continue to get lower and lower.

There is moderate chance of mid teens next week, at the FOMC.
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*I have ZERO interest in picking up a VIX call block until at least mid July.
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more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed with moderate gains, after breaking new historic highs earlier in the day. The sp'500 settled +1pt @ 1951 (intra high: 1955). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, closed higher by 0.1% and 0.9% respectively. Near term outlook remains broadly bullish into the next FOMC of June'18.


sp'60min

Summary

Another day of algo-bot melt to the upside. The fact we saw a micro afternoon rollover is very much inconsequential.

The broader trend remains strongly bullish, although I am dubious that sp'2000 can be hit this month - the weekly/daily charts would argue it is a somewhat out of range.
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more later..on the VIX

3pm update - minor weakness into the close

US indexes look set to end the day on a moderately weak note, although well within the broader up trend. A daily close in the low sp'1940s is arguably the best the bears can hope for.. ahead of a sig' QE-pomo tomorrow. Metals are fractionally higher, Gold +$1


sp'60min

Summary

*well, I'm done with sanding/painting the walls, time to see how we close!
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The hourly cycles have proved their worth today, and we have a clear rollover from the earlier high of sp'1955.

I would guess we level out early tomorrow morning, in the 1940/35 zone..where there is plenty of obvious support.

It does look like we'll battle into the 1960s later this week...which is incredible on any basis
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yours.. awaiting a thunderstorm (a welcome import from France)
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3.27pm... so much for the weakness..maniacs buying again... sp'1952... and that is why I have no interest in trying to trade these small down waves.. too annoying to bother with.

In more good news for the US consumer, Oil, +1.6%, thats bullish, yes?


3.37pm...another nano wave lower.... I guess some of the day-trader chartist might call a C' into early Tuedsay...1940/35...at best.

Regardless, I'm content to be away from this.

2pm update - micro rollover

The main indexes are seeing a minor rollover, although it is notable that the R2K has risen so much today that any down cycle might only negate gains to a net 0.75%. VIX is almost 6% higher, but then.. 6% of the 10s is not very much.


sp'60min

Summary

A minor retrace to the low 1940s is viable into early Tuesday..but bears beware..there is sig' QE of around $3bn tomorrow.

It would seem the 1960s are viable on the next wave higher...
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2.30pm...rolling rolling rolling..... sp'1948 (although I realise the irony in that as a bearish achievement)

1pm update - hourly cycles suggestive of minor retrace

US equities continue in what is relentless melt mode..all the way from the sp'1864 low, which now looks a long... long way down. However, hourly cycles are set for a down wave, first target would be the low 1940s..where is there is a rather obvious gap.


sp'60min

Summary

So..MACD cycle.set to turn bearish this afternoon.. with a minor retrace to 1940 or so..viable.
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As I've said many times though, I think such moves - within a large up trend, are largely untradeable - at least to 'most' in retail land.
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*I had eyes on WFM, but that is now back to positive, and I have little interest in buying in the low $41s


1.25pm.. ohh the humanity...we might actually slip into the 1940s again this afternoon.

1942/00 early tomorrow, before the QE..and then up?

12pm update - higher and higher

US indexes continue to push to ever higher levels. The R2K is now approaching the zone where a H/S scenario will get dropped. There is simply no downside power, and with sig' QE-pomo tomorrow, equity bears face relentless problems.


sp'daily5

Summary

So...the week begins with algo-bot melt...and its just a case of grinding higher.

Yes, the VIX higher, but I am dismissive of such gains today.

With sig;' QE tomorrow, there is zero reason why anyone would be short this week.
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VIX update from Mr T.



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time for a drink...a cold one.


12.09pm.. Watching clown TV.. guest Ezrati..end year target..sp'2200.

Everyone seems to be raising their targets with this latest wave.

11am update - weekly cycles restricting upside

US indexes continue to hold minor gains to start the week, but the weekly upper bollinger band is only offering sp'1955 by end of this week. Those expecting a weekly close in the 1960/70s are set to be disappointed.


sp'weekly8b

Summary

*the included wave count is...to be taken for what it is...one of a number of scenarios...although right now, it is my favoured one.
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So..we're higher, and the 1970s look out of range until late June/early July.

Underlying MACD (green bar histogram) cycle is going to be close to maxing out within the next few weeks.

If this week manages to close flat..1950s..then I'd guess a retrace to the 10MA - in FOMC week..will be the target, and that might equate to VIX briefly 14/15s.

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*I remain on the sidelines, I Have eyes on WFM still, but....not meddling in that today.
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11.32am,.. sp'1954..and this is even surprising me.

Algo-bot melt..with ZERO downside power.....and a big QE tomorrow.

10am update - opening new highs

US equities open with fractional new historic highs. Hourly cycles are suggestive of moderate downside across today, and into early Tuesday. Metals are a touch higher, Gold +$2. Oil is looking quite strong, +1.1%. VIX is higher, but 4% of the 10s..if not much of a gain.


sp'60min

Summary

*new historic highs in the usual trio... Trans, Dow, SP.
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Not much else to add.

Notable change...AAPL, in the $90s. Without question, trading volume will increase with the lower price, and options trading will similarly jump as contracts become much more 'reasonable'

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I have my eyes on WFM as a possible short term LONG, I want at least the low 40s..if not the low 39s by early tomorrow.

WFM, 60min

Target upside would be $48/50.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch lower, sp -1pt, we're set to open at 1948. Precious metals are a touch higher, Gold +$2. Equity bulls look set for another week in their favour, although there remains minor opportunity of a small 1-2% retrace.


sp'daily5

Summry

The 'retrace', even if  there is one, is likely to be brief..and very minor. In my view, such small down waves in a broader up trend are... untradeable, even for the more adept day-traders.

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Update from Mr Permabull



Not surprisingly, Oscar is bullish..into the sp'2100s.

Interestingly, the 2100s would be a key fib level..and certainly, the current trend offers a hit of that level towards the end of this year.

sp'monthly9

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Good wishes for the week ahead.

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9.39am.. Well, VIX is a little higher, indexes..micro chop.

I have eyes on WFM..might pick up late today..or more likely..early tomorrow (ahead of Tuesday QE).