Closing Brief - messy day

It was a particularly messy day for US equities, opening higher, but quickly turning negative. Even the latter day bounce is not enough to give clarity either way, with the sp'500 settling -3pts @ 1964 (range 1977/58).


sp'60min

sp'weekly8

Summary

..frankly, I remain in something of a daze... so this will be even more brief than normal.
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So... opening gains...failing...and an intraday swing of around 1%.. that is kinda interesting, but the minor net daily decline doesn't really give clarity either way.
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Weekly charts remain outright bearish

For the equity bears, the fact the weekly 'rainbow' candle has started the week red... it is something, but really.... either we drop to 1910/00 this week, or it ain't happening at all.

Right now, primary target would be the lower weekly bollinger, currently @ 1917. In a number of previous multi-week down cycles, at the very most, bears can hit 5/10pts under the band, before a major snap higher.

As it is, price structure is not at all clear on the smaller hourly/daily cycles. I will not be surprised to see some very diverse opinion across this evening and into tomorrow.

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...I should get back to bed...

goodnight from London 

2pm update - afternoon bounce

US indexes rally off their earlier low of sp'1958, but price action remains very weak. The renewed weakness is being reflected in the VIX which earlier had strong gains of 10% in the 15.70s. Metals have vainly built gains, Gold +$14, but it does nothing to the broader trend.


sp'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Overall, it remains messy, and with two hours to go, its very difficult to call today's close.

Something I've not mentioned... with the renewed weakness, the weekly index charts remain on outright sell... but more on that later...

As ever.. how we close... is far more important than how we open.

Best case for the equity bears today... sp'1955/50 zone, with VIX in the low 16s, but I have low confidence in any outlook right now..not least since my mind is hazy and light headed.
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Tired.. ill.... I will endeavour to return at the close.

12pm update - failed backtest on broken resistance

US equities have cooled from the opening gains, with all indexes now turning moderately red (as ever, notably.. the R2K). Equity bears need a daily close back in the 1950s to offer hope of some kind of mini wash out in the 1920/05 zone.


sp'60min

R2K, daily

Summary

The R2K still looks real ugly...failing at the 10MA and old broken support in the 1110s.

As for the sp'500... it is somewhat a confusing mess. We did see a clear break this morning....but its failing...and we're seeing a moderate snap with the failure to hold the old resistance.

VIX is reflecting the failure, +6% in the 15.50s.
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VIX update from Mr T.



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time for... no lunch....       too ill

back at 2pm (assuming I don't fall asleep)

10am update - clear breaks... everywhere

US indexes open moderately higher, but it is more than enough to confirm that Thursday was a key floor of sp'1926. Metals are holding moderate gains, Gold +$5, but as ever... will likely fade lower... sooner or later.


sp'daily5

Dow,daily

Summary

Regardless of any chop/minor weakness in the rest of today, what is clear, we've terminated the down trend.

Notable strength: oil/gas drillers, RIG +2.1%, SDRL +3.1%, but then, they are still massively lower since the summer.
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*I'm ill since the weekend, will be back at 12pm.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +7pts, we're set to open at 1974. Metals are trying to bounce after new overnight lows, Gold +$5. Oil is moderately higher, 0.4%, whilst Nas' Gas is -2.8%.


sp'daily5

Summary

Suffice to say, any daily close in the sp'1970s should be enough to clarify that the bulls are going to continue pushing higher..
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The last real aspects of resistance are around 1975.. after that.. its empty air back to the historic high of 2019.

Have a good week