Thursday 15 December 2016

Short term retrace

US equity indexes closed broadly lower, sp -18pts @ 2253. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.4% and -1.3% respectively. VIX settled +3.7% @ 13.19. Near term outlook offers weakness into this Friday's quad-opex, at least to 2230.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

It was the last big trading event of 2016. Not surprisingly, the fed raised rates by 25bps to a target range of 0.5-0.75%.

The market was particularly twitchy as Yellen spoke for almost an hour. Despite a little bounce around 3.30pm.. the market saw renewed weakness into the close.

On balance, a move to the 2230s looks a given.. and that will likely equate to VIX 14/15s. The only issue is whether a more significant retrace to around the 2200 threshold... but that is surely out of range until early next week.
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Meanwhile..  on clown finance TV...


Talk of Dow 40k could be seen as 'crazy talk', but so was Dow 20k just 5 weeks ago. As ever... we take this one day at a time... but from a grand perspective... we know where we're broadly headed, right?

Goodnight from London