VIX climbs into year end

With equities closing the year on a rather bearish note, the VIX battled moderately upward, settling +5.3% @ 18.21. The bigger equity picture is increasingly bearish, and regardless of any equity upside in early January, the broader picture favours upside action in the VIX.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

*a net weekly gain of a very significant 15.7%
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It is notable that today was the fourth net daily gain of the past five days.

The highest print of the day was 20.39, but I am dismissing it on the notion of it being a 'rogue print'.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed the year on a pretty bearish note, sp -19pts @ 2043. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.4% and -1.2% respectively. The year end close for five of six US indexes was below the monthly 10MA, and that sure bodes in favour of the bears for early 2016.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: renewed weakness, with a distinct case of some of the 'rats selling into the long holiday weekend'.
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I have a lot to say to wrap up the week, month, and year.. but will save that for later posts.

Suffice to say...

It has been a tough and frustrating year for many, but all those who have made it through the year deserve a prize. I'll leave it to each of you, what you think you deserve.

I want to say thanks to all those who have messaged me this year, whether via Disqus, email, or twitter.

I hope to be here across 2016... and beyond.

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the usual bits and pieces across the evening.. to wrap up the day.. and year :)

3pm update - the closing hour of 2015

US equities have seen a clear fail to turn positive, with another wave lower, back to around sp'2050. A year end close below the monthly 10MA (2052) would necessitate alarm bells in even the most bullish of bull maniacs. Metals are back to flat, whilst Oil is cooling from earlier highs, currently +1.2%


sp'60min

AAPL, daily

Summary

*AAPL is warning of trouble.. much in the same manner as INTC was in mid-May.
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We have a VERY important closing hour ahead.  Eyes on the VIX, which with renewed equity weakness, is +5% in the 18s. Clearly nothing significant, but it sure isn't in the low teens as seemed likely just a few days ago.

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...updates into the close... (what else would I be doing?)


3.03pm.. as things stand... we have sig' bearish closes in the Trans, R2K, NYSE comp'

sp'500 is currently moderately under 10MA.    Dow/Nasdaq still moderately above.

On balance... it is NOT something that should inspire the bulls.... as also reflected in most other world markets.
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3.13pm.. VIX spikes powerfully higher... +17% in the 20.40s.

Rogue print... or indicative of something?
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3.26pm.... VIX flashes back to the 18s.... end year kooky action.

Price pressure in equities remains broadly weak, sp -14pts @ 2049...

Ironically, notable strength: TWTR +4.4% in the $23s...
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3.34pm.. In more serious news... I'm not going to win $1000 from Danny Riley.... I'm 40pts shy of my end year target of ES 2080 (aka.. sp'2090). 

sp -11pts @ 2051.....
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3.46pm.. Darth Lucas speaketh

So.. his imperialness is trying to retract calling Disney as being the white slavers.

The real issue.. what would Boba Fett call Bob Igor?
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3.50pm.. sp -14pts @ 2049. Looks like we'll get that monthly close for one of the three headline indexes.

2pm update - the battle continues

With just two trading hours left of the year, the US equity market is seeing a rather fierce battle to keep the sp'500 net positive for 2015. The bigger issue is whether we'll see close aboev or below the monthly 10MA of 2052... right now.. that does look probable.


sp'60min

sp'monthly1b

Summary

As attention is somewhat focused on a fiery tall hotel in Dubai (live independent coverage - HERE), the real story remains whether the sp'500 will close above.. or below 2052.

From a pure cyclical perspective, the hourly MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is ticking upward, as price pressure starts to swing away from the equity bears.

Clearly, the rest of the afternoon is going to see some end week/month/year trades starting to fly through.. so I'd expect price action to get a little more active.
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notable weakness, AAPL, -1.7% in the $105s. For the equity bears out there, AAPL is now warning of broader market trouble.. much as INTC did in mid May.

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2.38pm... another wave lower.. and we're back under sp'2050.

It sure is getting interesting.

AAPL continues to lead the way lower, -2.1% in the $104s.

1pm update - desperately clawing higher

US equity indexes are battling to turn positive, having seen a morning low of sp'2046. The yearly close remains very important, equity bulls should remain in prayer mode... seeking continued recovery to the 2060/70s. Oil has seen a rather powerful reversal, swinging from -1%, currently +2.1% in the $37s.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

Many of the daily candles are currently of the hollow-red 'reversal' type. Still... we've three hours left.. and that is plenty of time.

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notable weakness...

AAPL, daily

The bear flag has already started to play out.. and were this the only stock I watched, I'd be real spooked.
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stay tuned!

12pm update - Chicago PMI is trending

US equities remain moderately weak, with a few aspects of support in the sp'2044/38 zone. Meanwhile, it is rather surprising to see that the latest Chicago PMI number is trending on Twitter. Without question, the 42.9 print is a truly lousy number, and it bodes badly for the econ-bulls in Q1.

An econ-data print makes it to the mainstream

sp'60min

Summary

Of all the things to see trending on Twitter, I'd never have expected to see Chicago PMI be one of them.

Considering there is a lot of chatter today for New Years Eve/day, it is very surprising to see an economic data print make it to the top ten.
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As for equities.. we'll see a clear attempt to claw back out of the danger zone.. and I can't be the only one who realises how important the sp'2050s are.

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VIX update from Mr T.


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time for lunch

11am update - 2052 is the dividing line

US equities continue to cool, with the sp' -14pts @ 2048. Those equity bulls seeking renewed upside in early 2016 should be starting to worry. A monthly/2015 close under the monthly 10MA would be a rather serious failure, and confirm what the Transports has been warning about for many... many months.


sp'monthly1b

spmonthly3, rainbow

Summary

*note the green candle on the monthly 'rainbow' chart.. it becomes blue @ 2047.

Frankly, its a far more important close than most realise... at least from a technical/chart perspective.

The Chicago PMI print of 42.9 that is rattling in my thoughts.. it really should concern the mainstream, but for now... they don't really seem to much care. Perhaps they'll care with the Q4 GDP data in late Jan'.

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Meanwhile... here in London city....

The sun sets on 2015

Somewhat bearish skies

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time to cook !

10am update - opening weakness

US equities open weak, with the sp' -11pts @ 2051. Most notably, the sp'500 is trading back under the monthly 10MA, if there isn't a latter day recovery today.. some of the bears can justifiably start sounding alarm bells. Metals are choppy, Gold +$2. Oil is trying to rebound, -0.7% in the $36s.


sp'60min

sp'monthly1b

Summary

**Chicago PMI: 42.9.    VERY recessionary... and another lousy number for the econ-bulls. This is indeed indicative that Q4 GDP will likely be pretty weak, in the 0.5-1.0% range.

Would the mainstream get spooked with a negative number... and then start to ask 'how could Yellen have raised rates'
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Meanwhile, it remains amusing to see the cheerleaders on clown finance TV get increasingly twitchy about whether the sp'500 settles above or below 2058.

Were I there, I'd merely tell them to cease their nonsense chatter.. and go stare at the Transports for an hour, but few of them want to reflect on what the 'old leader' index is warning them of.
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As things are... I'm guessing we'll see a rebound into the yearly close, but things sure don't look so great right now.

time for some sun, and to shop.. back soon!

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are moderately lower, sp -6pts, we're set to open at 2057. USD is climbing into year end, +0.2% in the DXY 98.40s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$2. Oil is -1.0% in the low $36s.


sp'60mn

Summary

So.. the gap zone is set to be fully filled at the open.

Equity bulls need a Thursday close >2058 for a fractional net yearly gain.

Best guess... after opening weak... market should rebound, and close net higher. Considering it is holiday trading conditions, anything much above 2080 looks difficult.
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*it would seem Japan and Germany didn't even trade this New Years Eve, so we already have a few year end closes.
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... awaiting weekly jobs and Chicago PMI data.
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9.31am.. sp'2051... we're back under the monthly 10MA....   if it stays there.... alarm bells will sound.

One day left of a messy year

There is just one trading day left of 2015, and regardless of the exact close, it has been a pretty messy year. The sp'500 has largely traded within the 2000/2100 zone, with a brief venture to a new historic high of 2134, then imploding to the Aug' low of 1867, before clawing back into the 2000/2100 zone.


sp'monthly1b

Trans, monthly2

Summary

*Transports remain a literal train wreck, holding a consistent downward trend since peaking at  9310 in Nov'2014.

The 'old leader' continues to warn of trouble in the broader market, as the 10MA (8150) is holding as powerful resistance.
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As things are, the sp'500 is set to attain a third consecutive monthly close above the key 10MA. Certainly, its been a bit of a struggle, but for now, there is little reason to get bearish in the immediate term.

Again though, other world markets are equally important, and most of them aren't looking so pretty.
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Looking ahead

Thursday will see the latest weekly jobs. Far more important though, the Chicago PMI. Market is expecting a borderline recessionary 50.0 print. Any outcome in the 51/49 zone should not inspire the econ-bulls.

*It will be a FULL day of trading in equity land, with a normal close at 4pm EST.
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Submit YOUR outlook for 2016

Don't forget to submit your best guess/comments for what might be ahead next year.

See HERE for full details.

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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes closed broadly lower, sp -15pts @ 2063 (intra low 2061). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.1% and -0.9% respectively. Near term outlook offers a Thursday/year end close around 2090, with the 2100s viable next week.


sp'daily5

Dow

Summary

Suffice to add, not a great day for the bulls, but then.. neither was there any real sell side power/volume behind the daily declines.

There is a clear price gap of sp'2060/56.. and Mr Market came within 1pt of hitting that in the closing hour.

Near term outlook: viable early Thursday morning weakness... before resuming upward, with first target at next resistance of 2090.
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re: Dow. The 18K threshold remains powerful resistance, and those equity bulls seeking broad gains in 2016 are going to need to see a few weekly closes back above 18K.. and HOLD above.

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a little more later..