The weekly close

Last week's close was sp'2425, with a notable black-fail candle. Equity bears should be somewhat desperate to see a Friday close of 2424 or lower, preferably <2420. Weekly price momentum for the sp'500 remains moderately favouring the bears.


sp'weekly1b

WTIC' weekly

Summary

sp: First, keep in mind last week's black-fail candle. Those are VERY rare on the bigger weekly cycles, and are not to be dismissed lightly. Second, note underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) which remains moderately negative, as price momentum does lean to the bears.

The key 10MA is in the low 2420s, and bears should be desperate to achieve some closes under it. Keep in mind the 50dma... currently around 2418, with the 200dma at 2305. Right now, I don't see anyone of note with a downside target <2300.

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WTIC: price structure - since the $42.05 low, is arguably just a multi-week bear flag. Mid term is unquestionably bearish, as we have a series of lower highs and lower lows since the Jan'2017 high of $55.24. Things only turn bullish if oil can break and hold above the last key high of $52.00.

Oscar Carboni's bold H/S downside target of $37.00 remains valid, and I'm personally inclined to see at least 41/40 before end month.
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Looking ahead

Friday will see a wheel barrow of key data: CPI, retail sales, industrial production, business inventories, and consumer sentiment.

Corp' earnings: financials:  C, JPM, and WFC. 

*Fed official Kaplan will be speaking in Mexico city early Friday, but I think the market will be far more focused on the econ-data, and the first big set of earnings.
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Normal service resumes...

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Goodnight from London

VIX and Index update

US equity indexes closed fractionally mixed, sp +4pts at 2447. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.1% and +0.1% respectively. Near term outlook offers moderate cooling to sp'2435, but anything under 2425 looks a stretch before the weekend.


sp'daily5

Trans

Summary

sp: a daily trading range of barely 8pts (0.3%), as the market is somewhat tired, but so far, the bears can't muster anything. Cooling to at least sp'2435 is due, but anything <2425 before the weekend looks a stretch, as the US equity market is still regularly breaking new historic highs. Its notable that the sp' saw a bullish cross today.

Trans: a new historic high of 9742, just 2.6% shy of the giant psy' level of 10k, but settling fractionally lower. First soft support tomorrow will be in the low 9600s... barely 1% lower. Cyclically, a bearish cross is viable within 1-2 days. Core support - with the 50dma /lower bollinger, will be in the 9300s next week.
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VIX'daily3

Volatility remains broadly subdued, with the VIX lower for a fifth consecutive day, settling -3.9% at 9.90. If the sp' keeps pushing upward to new historic highs (>2553), then VIX will have a high probability of breaking below the recent low of 9.37, which was the lowest VIX since 1993.
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Looking ahead by 6pm EST

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed fractionally mixed, sp +4pts at 2447. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.1% and +0.1% respectively. Near term outlook offers moderate cooling to sp'2435, but anything under 2425 looks a stretch before the weekend.


sp'60min

Summary

closing hour action: a fair amount of minor chop, but breaking a new intra high of 2449, leaning fractionally weak in the closing minutes.
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With the transports breaking a new historic high of 9742, it was a day for the bulls.

Short-term, the cyclical setup offers a bearish MACD cross early Friday morning. At minimum, that should see the sp' cool to 2435. Things only get marginally interesting with a full gap fill to 2425, even then, that would only result in a flat weekly close.

I see a fair few out there looking for the mid/low 2300s, but first things first... we need to see a weekly close back under the 10MA in the 2420s. Today's close doesn't offer any hope for that.
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Here in London city...

Warm, but a depressing cloud bank rolled in for the evening. No sunset for yours truly. Wine and chocolates will have to suffice.

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more later on the VIX and Indexes, and a 'looking ahead' post by 6pm EST.

3pm update - still due to swing lower

US equities remain moderately mixed. Cyclically - short term, some cooling to at least sp'2435 is due, although that looks a stretch before today's close. VIX remains reflective of a capital market that has near zero concerns. Metals remain weak, Gold -$1, with Silver -1.1%. WTIC is set to close higher by around 1% in the upper $45s.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

Well, its been a somewhat frustrating day. Cyclically, we're seeing the overbought smaller 15/60min cycles reset, yet the market has still been able to lean upward, and we even saw a new historic high for the transports.

Cooling to sp'2435 remains due, lead lower by the semi-conductors.

Many closing hours in recent weeks have seen new intra highs, but then distinct weakness in the final 30 minutes.

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notable weakness, NVDA, daily

Nvidia came real close to the key June 9th high of $168.50, but the buyers are faded, and its turned lower.. following AMD and MU. Arguably... a double top.
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notable strength, AAPL, daily

The tech behemoth of Apple is one reason why the bears are so far unable to pull the main market lower. Its actually on track for a fifth consecutive net daily gain. Things turn very bullish with a break above the 50dma, although that looks out of range before the close.. and probably until next week, as the main market needs to at least cool to sp'2435.

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I might return for a brief intrahour update at 3.30pm...

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3.28pm

sp'60min

At the current rate, a bearish cross will be due by 10am tomorrow... and that'll result in 2435. A close under the hourly 10MA - 2446, is viable, as Cashin on CNBC talks about a sellside imbalance...
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notable weakness, MU, daily

Note yesterday's black-fail candle, confirmed with today's weakness. I really like the company for the mid term, with the PE of just 5, its insanely mis-priced. Short term though.. it looks vulnerable.

notable strength, X, daily

US Steel finally hits first soft target of the $24.00 threshold, as Trump talks about Steel tariffs. Things turn hyper bullish with the $28s... where the 200dma is lurking.
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Back at the close.. to wrap things up....

2pm update - metals and miners

US equities remain moderately mixed. Meanwhile, the precious metals are having issues, Gold -$2, with Silver -1.1%. The gold miner ETF of GDX is currently -0.5% in the $21.60s. With Silver and the miners having sustainably broken core rising trend, gold can be expected to follow.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

GDX, weekly

Summary

*I highlight the bigger weekly cycles to give some perspective.
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Gold: still above core rising trend... the last hope for the gold bugs.

Silver: a fractional break of trend in May, settling under in June, and breaking new lows in July. Ugly.

GDX: following silver, with fractional breaks in May/June, and now decisively under trend.

I acknowledge price structure could be argued is a bull flag - that stretches back to around February, but still... we do have a clear break of trend in silver and the miners. On balance... gold will likely follow.
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Equity update, sp'60min

Cyclically due a bearish MACD cross tomorrow morning. At minimum, a retrace to sp'2435. For a net weekly decline.. the bears need <2525.. which is interestingly the lower end of the gap zone. The key 50dma will offer big support tomorrow around 2419/20.
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bonus chart...  AMD, daily

Some of the semi stocks are having real issues.... NVDA and MU are following. A cyclical rollover is underway, with a viable big move tomorrow or Monday.

1pm update - oil and energy

Whilst US equities are moderately mixed (Trans/R2K remain net lower). WTIC is currently +1.4% around $46.00. The energy sector ETF of XLE is currently net higher for the week by 1.0% in the $64s. With a series of lower highs and lower lows in oil, the mid term outlook remains bearish.


USO, daily

XLE weekly

Summary

WTIC/USO: today's price action is choppy, currently net higher, but vulnerable, after yesterday's black-fail candle. Mid term bearish.. at least to $41/40.

XLE: broadly weak since Dec'2016, where we saw a top with a classic black-fail candle. For now, there is ZERO sign of a turn/floor.

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Equity update, sp'60min

A new intra high of 2448, just 5pts shy of a new historic high. Note the hourly 10MA - 2444, which saw the market bounce from this morning. Any break below it will offer an overdue upper gap fill to sp'2435, whether by the close or early tomorrow.

As things are, a weekly close <2425 - last week's close, looks damn difficult, as the main market is still regularly breaking new historic highs.

12pm update - mixed chop

US equities are in mixed chop mode. Short term - cyclically, nothing has changed, the market is still due to at least hit the upper end of yesterday's opening gap at sp'2435. WTIC is helping prop the main market up, currently +1.4% in the $45s. Metals continue to slip, Gold -$3, with Silver -1.1%.

sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

As the Yellen continues, VIX is certainly showing little sign of trouble, currently flirting with the 9s.

Cooling to sp'2435 is still on the menu, but anything under it will be tough, as ongoing price action is scary strong.

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Notable strength, F, daily

Ford is pushing for a break and close above the 200dma.. which its not managed since mid March. The new CEO is going to need to inspire the market at next earnings, if there is to be any chance for a break above core declining trend - that stretches back to July 2014... currently in the low $12s.
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weakness, X, daily

US Steel opened sig' higher, but like a fair few other stocks, its seen a full reversal, and now looks vulnerable to another test of rising trend, currently around $21.00... where the 50dma is lurking.

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time for lunch... and to check on the cheerleaders on clown finance TV.

11am update - a wave to at least 2435

US equities have seen a morning high of sp'2447, and have turned fractionally lower. Further weakness to at least sp'2435 is due by mid afternoon. For the bears, things only get interesting with a break <2420, and considering this morning's new historic high in the Transports, that won't be easy. WTIC has built sig' gains of around 1.0% in the $45s.. but looks highly vulnerable.

sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*a new historic high for the Transports of 9742, making it a day for the bulls... even if we close sig' lower.
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As the Yellen continues to babble about 'prudent', 'transient', and 'gradual', equities are cyclically due to lean weak into the afternoon. Even a hit of the lower end of the gap zone to 2425 won't be easy... but the cyclical setup does allow it.

For a sig' net daily decline, we'll need giants like AAPL swing lower, along with WTIC.

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notable weakness/reversal, AMD, daily

AMD opened higher, but there is a full reversal, with AMD now sig' lower. First soft downside target is the daily 10MA.. currently around $13.30.
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weakness, miners, GDX, daily

I'm seeing some rather bizarre bullish talk and charts about gold out there. Yesterday saw GDX settle with a black-fail candle.. and its playing out today. Sustainably trading under old core support.... it sure ain't bullish.

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time to cook !

10am update - opening minor chop

US equities open in minor chop mode, still leaning to the upside. WTIC is currently moderately higher, but yesterday's black-fail candle bodes for renewed weakness as the day proceeds. The precious metals are already on the slide, Gold -$1, with Silver -0.5%.

sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

A new cycle high of sp'2447.. a mere 6pts shy of a new historic high. Cyclically, short term price momentum is still slowly swinging back toward the bears. Some cooling to at least 2435 remains due later today.

Yellen is underway... lets see if the senators ask her any questions that annoy her. 

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notable strength, NVDA, daily

Nvidia opens sig' higher, but there will be strong resistance at the June 9th historic high of $168.50. High threat of a double top. If the momo chasers can break and hold >$170, it'd bode for broader market strength into the sp'2450s.

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notable opening reversal, TSLA, daily

Tesla opened higher, but is one of the first stocks to see a downside reversal. Price structure is a viable bear flag. If things turn ugly.. first soft target is the psy' level of $300.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are fractionally higher, sp +1pt, we're set to open at 2444. USD is -0.1% at DXY 95.70. The precious metals are fractionally mixed, Gold +$1, with Silver -0.1%. WTIC is -0.2% in the $45s.

sp'60min

Summary

*well, this is kinda unusual.. its like the old days.

As ever, updates each hour. I take requests, if there is something you'd like me to highlight, just email, or message me via Disqus.
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Cyclically - short term ,we're on the very high side. There was an initial rollover yesterday afternoon. At the current rate, a bearish MACD cross is just about within range by the close, but far more viable early Friday.

A very basic downside target for today will be the upper end of yesterday's gap zone... sp'2435, a mere 8pts lower. Things only get interesting with a break under 2420. Even then, we have two key spike lows of 2407/05. Until those are taken out... can't be overly bearish, not least as yesterday saw new historic highs for the dow and trans.

Keep in mind, we have another dose of Yellen today, which will last at least 2-3 hours. Clown finance TV will likely not give blanket coverage.
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early movers

ABX -0.2%.. as the metals sure don't look great
CHK -0.6%, with oil
DAL -1.3%... earnings miss.
KMI -0.6%.. with oil
M +1.5%.. but broadly weak
MU +0.8%... following AMD and NVDA
NVDA +0.5% in the $163s.... a viable double top if 167/168
SNAP +2.5%... but broadly utterly broken
STX -4%... downgraded
TSLA +0.4% at $331
TVIX -0.5% , with VIX -0.3% at 10.27

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update from a typically loud Mr C.


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overnight markets

Its moderately mixed out there...

Japan: u/c at 20099
China: +0.6% at 3218
Germany: currently +0.1% at 12632
UK: currently -0.1% at 7410
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Have a good Thursday