Friday 27 November 2015

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes closed naturally subdued, but leaning on the positive side, sp +1pt @ 2090. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by +0.5% and +0.3% respectively. Broadly, the market looks set to battle upward.. with new historic highs in the Dow, sp'500, and Nasdaq before year end.




*first upside for the transports remains the 200dma.. currently @ 8393.

The sp'500 looks poised for a break back into the sp'2100s, but there will be clear resistance in the 2115/20 zone.

Regardless of any sporadic sig' net daily declines in the days ahead, new historic highs in the Dow, sp'500, and Nasdaq look due before year end.

a little more later...

VIX knocked lower into the weekend

With equities closing subdued - but leaning on the higher side, the VIX settled -0.5% @ 15.12. Outlook into year end is offering a brief VIX spike higher.. but sustained action above the key 20 threshold does not look possible.





*net weekly decline of -2.3%

Little to add.

The VIX was knocked lower into the weekly close.. as is often the case.

There is clearly plenty of time for the market to see another brief washout before year end, but what should be clear, sustained action above the VIX 20 threshold looks very difficult.

*I have ZERO interest in being long the VIX until late spring 2016... at the earliest.
more later.. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed naturally subdued, but leaning on the positive side, sp +1pt @ 2090. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by +0.5% and +0.3% respectively. Broadly, the market looks set to battle upward.. with new historic highs in the Dow, sp'500, and Nasdaq before year end.



.. and the short holiday week comes to a close.

Buy low.. sell high

On clown finance TV, one of the better host, Mr G, surrounded by children.

No doubt.. someone from Goldman Sachs would merely see such a picture, and wonder if they can be packaged into some kind of multi-tier credit default swap.

There really isn't anything to add... so I shall merely say...

Have a good weekend :)

*the usual bits and pieces across the evening.. to wrap up the day

12pm update - a mixed weekly close

US equities are set to close the week naturally subdued. In terms of net weekly changes, there is quite a strong disparity between the two leaders - Trans/R2K, currently -0.9% and +2.2% respectively. The 'old leader' sure is struggling.. despite broadly low energy/fuel prices.




*I'll cover the weekly indexes in depth this weekend.

Suffice to add... despite the broad market naturally subdued.. there is plenty of action going on....

DIS -3.2%

Oil/gas drillers, RIG -2.6 , SDRL -3.2%

GDX -2.2% , as Gold -$13.

back at the close (1pm) to wrap up the week

11am update - problems in Disneyland

Whilst the main indexes are trading (naturally) muted.. there is very significant weakness in Disney (DIS), -3.6% in the $114s. Next support is the 113/112 zone. Sustained price action under the 200dma (109s) looks completely out of range... not least as Star Wars hysteria continues to grow.

DIS, daily


*note how DIS got stuck at the upper end of the price gap zone, from the earnings snap in early August. Kooky how that often happens, right?

The ESPN data sure wasn't pretty, but that is a small part of Disney, and I'd expect new historic highs.. whether late Dec', or early January.

I'll consider going long DIS next Monday.

Oil remains weak... but holding the key $40 threshold...

USO, daily2

Meanwhile... here in London city...

This is as close to sunshine as it came today.

time for an early lunch

10am update - Gold breaking new lows

Whilst equities open with mixed chop, there is notable action in the precious metals. Gold is -$12, having broken a new multi-year low of $1051. The giant psy' level of $1000 looks an easy target... the only issue is whether that occurs before year end.. or early 2016. The related mining stocks are naturally being impacted.

GLD' daily

GDX, daily


For the gold bugs.. its about as bad a post-thanksgiving return to the market as possible.

Its not so much that Gold/miners are lower.. but that we're regularly breaking new multi-year lows. By definition... with new lows... there is zero sign of a turn.. and I'd expect Gold in the $900s next year.

As many recognise.. higher rates are bearish precious metals... and the related mining stocks.

Santa at the NYSE... again
time to shop....... back at 11am

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are a little higher, sp +4pts, we're set to open at 2092. USD is +0.2% in the DXY 100.00s. Metals are naturally weak, Gold -$8. Oil is -1.8% in the $42s.



*market closes today at 1pm.

There is threat of downside to the sp'2085/80 zone this morning... but regardless we're still broadly headed higher.

notable early movers...

DIS -2% in the $116s, on ESPN subscriber problems

Oil/gas drillers, RIG -0.9%, SDRL -3.1%.. as Oil is again weak

Notable stock....

KBIO, daily

This is the stock that wrecked trader JC. I'd not looked at it in a week, and it seems it exploded again... from 14 to the $40s. Insane short-squeeze.

Overnight Asia action

Japan: subdued, -0.3%. Still not able to re-take the 20K threshold.

China: quiet open... but then a MASSIVE upset as China goes after brokerages... -5.5% @ 3436. This is a seriously bad end to the week.. and with one day left of the trading month... the November close will not be bullish.

What am I planning today?

I've eyes on a few things... but might sit it out until after the weekend. Certainly though... I will NOT short anything... least of all the main indexes.

Have a good Friday.

8.11am.. Gold breaks a new multi-year low... -$12 @ 1058.. as the short term long-stops are taken out. Next support is clearly the giant psy' level of $1000

the related miners are naturally being dragged lower, GDX -1.3%

8.20am.. Gold -$15 @ $1054.... what a truly lousy post-thanksgiving return to the market for the gold bugs.