VIX a touch lower

With equities climbing higher in the morning, the VIX was naturally cooling, but largely recovered into the close, settling just a little lower, -0.2% @ 14.71. Near term outlook remains very mixed, as equities remain largely stuck within the sp'2088-39 zone.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

*closing daily candle was a reversal hammer candle (hollow red)... with a spike floor..  and certainly favours the equity bears for Wednesday.
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Equities are seeing some considerable chop. There will be no clarity until a daily close >sp'2088... or a break under the key low of 2039.

At best... there is viable VIX upside to the 20/22 zone - as offered on the bigger weekly cycle, but that would require a test of the sp' 200dma.. in the 2010s... and that won't be easy!
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more later.. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed rather weak, sp -4pts @ 2076 (intra high 2089). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.5% and -0.6% respectively. Near term outlook is very mixed, but  breaking the key low of sp'2039 looks damn difficult.. not least with Fed officials issuing sporadic threats.


sp'60min

Summary

*a pretty weak closing hour (to my surprise).. and those short-stopped in the morning will be understandably pissed right now.
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So.. net daily declines for most indexes, and today is clearly a moderate fail for the bull maniacs.

Overall price action/structure remains an absolute mess.
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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - a third day for the bulls

US equity indexes look set to close moderately higher for the third consecutive day. With the Fed' again issuing threats to delay rate rises.. and even QE4, the market is resuming higher. Metals remain weak, Gold -$6. Oil continues to build gains, +3.5%.


sp'daily5

VIX'60min

Summary

Little to add.

It will be a second daily close above the 50dma (sp'2074).. and with that.. there is simply no reason for anyone to still be clinging to any near term downside scenario.

Regardless of price action in the closing hour... bears saw another fail today... but then... you can't beat a central bank, right?
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3.18pm... ohh lookie...

Clown finance TV bring on someone from MS.. to talk sp'3K

.... another day closer.
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3.24pm... Ohh sure, indexes are weakening into the close, but we are going to see a second day above the 50dma.. 2073....

Meanwhile, fed official Powell is probably scripting another threat... for tomorrow morning's prepared remarks.

notable strength: TWTR, +2.9%... as minor takeover chatter continues.
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3.39pm.. Ohh the humanity.. sp'500 turns red.....   it must be time for another Fed threat.

1pm update - another lunchtime pump job

Whilst US equity indexes continue to hold moderate gains, it is just another day for clown finance TV. Today's guest Zann is touting Peabody Energy (BTU).. the stock is naturally soaring, +9%.. although still only in the $5s. Meanwhile, Oil continues to build gains, +3.0%.


BTU, 5min.. clown TV

Buy. Pump. Sell.

sp'60min

Summary

*market remains a touch stuck.. but hell, the break has occurred, and market mood is argubly 'fine', certainly VIX isn't warning of any concern, -2% in the 14.30s.
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Lesson/reminder for today...

So, buy a stock (or call option).... appear on a mainstream channel.. and have the stock ramp. Great work if you can get it.
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Is it time for the dinosaur Icahn to start Tweeting on VLTC? With summer coming, the penny share pumpers will be coming out of the wood work (or should that be cesspool?).
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notable weakness, GDX -1.8%.. as the precious metals are weak, Gold -$5

12pm update - more threats from the Fed

With the sp'500 breaking to 2089.81.. the bulls achieved another victory, having climbed from the Monday low of 2056. Or is this a fractional fake out? The real problem remains the sporadic threats from the Federal reserve... not just about delaying a rate rise... but even of QE4. Oil has built sig' gains of 2.5%, into the $53s.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

*ignoring the minor noise for this hour... with a few daily charts.
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What is clear.. we are higher for the third consecutive day.. and currently... market mood is unquestionably at least 'reasonably' calm. There isn't even any talk of Greece in the mainstream.

As for the Fed, it is of course laughable.. but also contemptible to see the sporadic threats from various Fed officials to keep rates low (so much for retirees).. or for simply re-spooling up the printing.

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notable strength: SDRL +6.4% @ $10.98... helped with continued Oil gains.
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VIX update from Mr T.



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time for lunch

11am update - breaking out

US equities are breaking above the key March 30th' high of sp'2088.97. A second daily close above the 50dma (2074) looks highly probable. Near term downside scenarios are now off the menu. Metals remain weak, Gold -$3. Oil has swung higher, +1.0%... seemingly headed for first bounce/retrace target of $60.


sp'60min

Trans, daily

Summary

*the strength in Oil is really helping the broader market, and as noted in yesterday's closing post, the bigger weekly cycle is offering the first bullish candle since last June.
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It is notable that the Transports are already holding sig' gains of around 1%... despite Oil continuing to rise.
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Well, for the serious 'bear money'.. we're now in white flag zone. Market mood is increasingly confident, not least with the various Fed' officials threatening QE4... as bizarre as that sounds.

There is the Greece issue of course, but from what I see, they'll somehow rustle up the funds to meet a Thursday payment to the IMF.

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notable strength: SDRL +5%.. which is seeing some sig' follow through after yesterday's strong gains.
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time to shop... back soon
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11.23am... Minor chop... sp'2085.. but still... with the Oil and the Transports rising... this is lousy morning for those in bear land.

10am update - another breakout attempt

US equities are battling to build minor gains in early trading, but more importantly, to break above the March' 30th high of sp'2088. A second day of net gains.. with a close in the 2090s would negate all near term downside scenarios.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*VIX trying to hold the floor... but it remains an extremely marginal situation
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So... opening gains.. and the 'white flag' zone for the equity bears is a mere few points away.

Market mood seems increasingly confident.... its not looking so great, but as ever, that is what short-side trading stops are for, right?
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notable weakness:  GDX -1.4%... as the metals are weak, Gold -$5
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10.05am... Indexes weakening.... bears should be desperate for a daily close back under the 50dma of sp'2074, along with VIX in the 15s.. at minimum.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a little higher, sp +2pts, we're set to open at 2082. Metals are on the slide, Gold -$7. Oil is cooling, -0.6%. The USD is strongly higher, +0.9% in the 97.70s.


sp'60min

spdaily5

Summary

So, we're set to open just a little higher.

It is clearly extremely important for the bears to contain the market under the March 30th high of 2088.

We have a long day ahead.. frankly, bears should be desperate for a daily close back under the 50dma of sp'2073.

*All the smaller equity/VIX cycles should favour the bears today, I'd be surprised if we don't continue lower from here.... not least after yesterday's weak closing hour.

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Update from Mr C.


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Have a good Tuesday

Transports... 4 of 5

The week began with some moderate gains in most equity indexes, sp +13pts @ 2080. Yet the Transports remains a problem for the bull maniacs.. net lower for 4 of the last 5 months. Is the 'old leader' warning of a summer washout?


Trans, monthly

Trans, daily

Summary

The daily chart looks even worse than the monthly, with the Trans unable to hold above the rather important 200dma. Next support - via monthly chart, is in the 8200s.
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*bonus chart*

Something I noticed this evening....

WTIC Oil, weekly'2, rainbow

We have the first outright bullish candle on the weekly chart since the June 2014 high. If we close the week green, then I'll be seeking continued upside to at least $60, but possibly as high at $75 this summer. From there, renewed downside to $35/30, since the supply issue has not yet be addressed 

Higher oil prices would certainly help give energy stocks a kick upward... along with the broader market. One particular world market to keep an eye on would be Russia, which today closed 4.1% higher. A move to declining resistance in 1150/1200s would be the natural upside target.. which is around 20% higher than the current 968 level.
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Looking ahead

Tuesday will see consumer credit data (3pm).

Fed officials Dudley and K' will be speaking in the early morning.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed moderately higher, sp +13pts @ 2080 - having swung strongly higher (intra high 2086) from an opening low of 2056. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.4% and +0.4% respectively. Near term outlook is for another attempt to take out the sp'2039 low.


sp'daily5

Trans

Summary

Suffice to say... Trans 'old leader' is warning of broader downside this week.
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Closing update from Riley


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a little more later...