Saturday 15 September 2018

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from +1.9% (Trans), +1.3% (Nasdaq comp'), +1.1% (sp'500, nyse comp'), +0.9% (Dow), to +0.5% (R2K). Near term outlook offers new historic highs.


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500


The sp' saw a net weekly gain of 33pts (1.1%), settling at 2904. Whilst early next week might well see a brief foray back into the 2880s, the 2920/30s do look viable, with the 2940/50s by end month.


Nasdaq comp'


The Nasdaq saw a net weekly gain of 1.3% to 8010. Note the 10MA at 7881, currently overlapped by rising trend from the April low.


Dow


The mighty Dow gained 0.9% to 26154. New historic highs (>26616) are just 1.8% higher. Any price action above the key fib' of 26702 (>26800s to be decisive) will offer far higher levels in 2019, to 33/34k.


NYSE comp'


The master index saw a net weekly gain of 1.1% to settle at 13050, the highest weekly close since late January. It bodes well for the main market into the autumn.


R2K


The second market leader - R2K, was the laggard this week, higher by a moderate 0.5% to 1721. The 1800s look due by mid/late November. R2K @ 2K looks due by mid 2019.


Trans


The 'old leader' - Transports, was the leader this week, settling +1.9% at 11570, having broken a new historic high of 11623. If WTIC does break new multi-year highs (>$75.27) - as seems probable, the transports will be pressured, although that does not mean the sector/index will be net lower in the weeks/months ahead.



Summary

All six of the main US equity indexes saw net weekly gains

The Transports and Nasdaq lead the way, with the Dow and R2K lagging.

The Transports broke a new historic high, on 4 of 5 days.

The m/t trend is unquestionably bullish, as the market is battling against 'offshore concerns', such as Turkey. Trade/tariffs remain a key issue, but a US agreement with Canada and China look highly probable.

The US midterms will be a brief issue in early November, but once that is out of the way, the market will have a clear run into year end. Original target of sp'3245 looks just about within range.

YTD performance:


The Nasdaq continues to lead the way, currently net higher for the year by a powerful 16.0%, with the R2K +12.1%. The sp'500 is +8.6%, with the Dow +5.8% and the NYSE comp' +1.9%. Its notable that the Transports has been catching up since late June, currently +9.0%.
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Looking ahead 

Key earnings: FedEx (FDX), Oracle (ORCL) Mon', Micron Tech' (MU), Thurs' in AH.

M - Empire State manu'
T - Housing market
W - Housing starts, EIA Pet' report
T - Weekly jobs, Phil' fed, existing home sales, leading indicators.
F - *QUAD-OPEX*

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Have a good weekend
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