Saturday 15 September 2012

Daily Index Cycle update

Another up day for the indexes, even the last minute put in a further little spike higher, adding that little bit of extra pain for those few remaining bears.

The closing daily index cycles...

IWM, daily




First, consider IWM (Rus'2000 small cap), which is now up some 20% since the June low, simply incredible. In comparison, the transports are up 'only' 8%.

The broader sp'500  is up around 15% since June.

On any basis, we are probably close to the top of this up cycle. As is always the case, now we'll just have to see if we put in yet another higher low - as has been the case since June.

Only with a break under 1397, can the bears justifiably start to consider that the larger weekly/monthly cycles may have maxed out. Right now. 1397 just does not look like it will be broken. In fact, it may be a VERY long time until we're under 1400 again.

Best guess right now, we somehow trundle lower to around 1420, and then up we go again, into October.

Its been a long week, so I'm keeping this closing daily update short.

Goodnight from London