Volatility fractionally higher

With equities seeing some weakness into the close, the VIX settled +0.16% @ 12.81. VIX has a reasonable chance to spike into the 14/15s within the next 3-5 trading days, but looks set to remain under the key 20 threshold until at least Jan'2014.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Little to add...VIX is low...near term spike viable, but nothing of significance.

After all, no one can could deem the mid teens a 'volatile' market..and right now..even the 14/15s..look somewhat difficult.
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more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes saw some distinct weakness in the closing hour, sp +0.3pts @ 1802. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, closed -0.1% and +0.9% respectively. Near term is somewhat weak, whilst the broader trend looks very strong into January.


sp'60min

Summary

*for those watching the micro-action..that was a good example of how the 5/15min cycles can be useful to watch..especially for those 'toppy-spike' candles.
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Here is the 15min..with those spiky-top candles...and then the snap lower.

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As for tomorrow...should be lower..to the 1795/90 zone...with further weakness..early Friday.
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the usual bits and pieces across the evening

3pm update - another closing hour rollover?

The sp' remains stuck just under the 1808.10 high, and with all the micro-cycles looking maxed out, we're set for weakness into the close, very much like yesterday. Downside to 1797/95 would be the natural target. Metals remain weak, Gold -$6, with Silver -0.8%


sp'60min

GLD, daily

Summary

*for the sp' at least, a triple micro-top at 1808 ?

Best guess...weakness into the close..very much in the same style as  yesterday. A close <1800 would be useful to equity bears, and keep open the 1780/70s within the next 3-5 trading days.
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3.07pm..looking weak..1807...plenty of time to close <1800.

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3.14pm.. 1808.23... and then a nano sized pull back.

This really is a case of getting lost in the noise.  Its a wonder anyone tries to trade this nonsense!

AAPL 536..about to break.up...which of course..will help to prop up the tech index.


3.23pm.. AAPL takes out the Oct' high...540s coming...but more so...target is 580/600, before year end.

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RIG remains one of my favourites...

 

*assuming a hyper-ramp into 2015/16..target is 125/150.
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3.30pm.. indexex melting higher... urghh.

Meanwhile.. Miners continue to degrade.. GDX -2.6%...no doubt pressured by declining metal prices.

*I was thinking earlier a lot about the miners, will probably be one hell of a buy in 2014/15, but..hey..more on those another day.


Lots of little toppy-spikes on the micro 15min cycle...in theory..Wednesday should be lower.

...not that I'm shorting the indexes of course.


3.40pm..market wants to break lower.  20mins...that is more than enough time.

3.48pm..ahh..and there we go...to the downside. ;0

I have to say..it ..it is pretty funny to be getting overly excited about a move of 3pts, lol

Oh well, to those shorting the 1708 high...maybe you'll get 1780s by early Friday.
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3.51pm.. day-trading bull-rats. making a run for it..    ohh the humanity!

3.56pm.. I like being right.      I look forward to late spring 2014..more than most of you can possibly imagine.

2pm update - attempting new highs

The sp'500 is a fraction of a pt away from breaking the Monday high of 1808.10. However, the smaller 5, 15, and hourly index cycles look over-stretched, and prone to a daily close in the 1790s. The remainder of the day..could be kinda interesting. Metals remain weak, with Gold -$6


sp'60min (with metals)

AAPL, daily

Summary

*the R2K and Nasdaq, breaking new index highs.
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Overall.. broader trend remains strongly bullish, and with stocks like AAPL on the edge of a major breakout...you'd have to be crazy to consider a major top in the near term.

Once >536, upside for AAPL is Jan' high of 541 - easily hit, and then the 580s from Dec' 2012.
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sp'5min

Baring a break >1808...very sig' chance for late day weakness..much like yesterday. 5min micro cycle looks particular toppy.

1pm update - AAPL trying to breakout

A little spike to the upside, and the main indexes are trying to break new highs. Apple (AAPL) is making a serious play to break the Oct' high of $536. Metals are weak, Gold -$6, Silver -0.7%. Oil -0.3%  VIX is weak, melting lower into the mid 12s.


sp'60min

AAPL, daily

Summary

*if APPL can break 536 - which I'm guessing it will, then next upside is the psy 550 level, but more likely 575/600 by year end.

Indeed, AAPL is a pretty good broader signal that the market will claw higher into January.
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Bigger picture is indeed still very bullish. Sure, there will be little waves lower along the way, but I continue to think such moves are pointless to attempt to trade.
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The miners continue to look..dire.

GDX headed for the mid teens...along with Gold 1050/950..and Silver 12/10.
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1.37pm.. market looks very prone to a move down into the close..much like yesterday. Downside target is sp'1797..so..maybe a 10pt down swing. Nothing dramatic...but still. it'd at least help keep everyone awake.

AAPL $535..on the edge of breaking out.

12pm update - awaiting renewed weakness

The main indexes are a touch higher, with the sp' stuck below yesterdays new high of 1808. Equity bears have reasonable opportunity to sell the market a little lower this afternoon. Metals are weak, with Gold -$5. A VIX close in the 13s looks viable.


sp'60min

Summary

*good lunch time reading from Armstrong. Manipulating markets.
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It continues to be a somewhat sleepy trading day again..but hey..that was expected.  First downside target is the 50MA on the hourly.... 1797..that is certainly viable this afteroon.
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The notable action remains in the momo stocks like FB, TSLA, and TWTR. FB has seen a 4% swing already today. Pretty unstable, and no doubt, many short-stops got blown out in the morning.
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VIX update from Mr T.



Indeed, no one is buying near term volatility. The big players are gradually picking up spring time blocks..for the debt ceiling in Jan/Feb.

time for lunch!


12.23pm..nasty spike to sp;1806...bears in trouble again. A daily close >1808 would really be a spiteful close. Urghh.

..and that...is why I'm refraining from meddling in the indexes right now. Only another 4-6 months to wait. 

AAPL is making a play to take out the Oct' $536 high...very strong price structure..offering $600 by year end.

11am update - minor chop

Mr Market is seeing some minor chop ahead of the holiday later week. It is notable that the R2K has broken a new historic high. Momo stocks are seeing some action with TSLA approaching the 200 day MA, and FB swinging back to the upside, after breaking into the $43s. Metals remain a little weak.


sp'daily5

FB, daily2

Summary

In terms of the sp'..equity bears need to break the daily 10MA..currently 1793. That is viable later today/tomorrow. Downside target zone would remain the 1770s.

*by mid December, the 50 day MA will be offering VERY strong support in the 1770s. I find it difficult to believe the bears can manage anything even moderately significant before next Jan'.
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As for FB, I think some could argue it is just doing a back test of the old floor, before renewed downside later this week. Certainly, price structure is screaming '35s'

10am update - awaiting further weakness

Good morning. The main indexes open a little higher, but baring a break >sp'1808, the market should be increasingly weak across the week. Metals open weak, with Gold -$6. The momo stocks are weak, with FB in the $43s..headed for $35.


sp'60min

FB, daily2

Summary

*notable weakness in FB, which looks headed for $35
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So..some minor chop to open the day...but Mr Market is not breaking new highs..and we're likely to get slip across the morning..if not the day.
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TSLA, daily

Just $7 away from the primary target of the 200 day MA. It will be interesting to see what reaction we get there. Or..do we just keep on falling to the secondary range of 70/60.
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10.10am... things get interesting on a break > VIX 13.50.

market weak...
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10.42am...no idea why..but FB snaps back  higher.. +1.5%..after -2.5%.  Fierce short-squeeze?

Don't get lost in the noise

Equities look set for a micro down wave across the next few days...but the broader trend remains starkly higher. The mighty Dow monthly chart is offering the 17000-17500 zone by late spring 2014, which would equate to sp'1950/2050.


Dow' monthly'2, rainbow

Summary

*I wish I could stick the remaining doomer bears in a room...and have them stare at the above Dow monthly chart for the rest of this week.

Denial is a real monster to break though, and no doubt, some will be short the indexes and long VIX across the December festive period. I guess you argue that worked last year..well, up until New Years eve.
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Looking ahead

There is some housing data tomorrow, along with consumer confidence at 10am. Mr Market could easily use either of those as an excuse to sell lower, into the 1795/90 zone..before a probable small latter day bounce.

*next sig' QE is not until at least Friday (QE schedule is issued Wed').
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It was a quiet day, and I shall leave it at that.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes broke new highs, notably the Nasdaq Comp' @ 4000. The closing hour was weak, and the sp'500 settled -2pts @ 1802, having put in an intra day double top of 1808. Near term looks weak, whilst the broader trend remains outright bullish.


sp'daily5

Nasdaq Comp'

Summary

There really isn't much to note.

Equity bulls achieved the big 4k on the Nasdaq, and most of the other indexes broke new historic highs.

Best guess is that sub'5 of 3' has completed @ sp'1808, and there is near term downside to the 1770s..before resuming higher into the 1825/50 zone by end year.
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a little more later...