Tuesday 13 August 2019

An excuse to hyper spike

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +43pts (1.5%) at 2926. Nasdaq comp' +1.9%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.2% and +1.1% respectively. Near term outlook offers renewed downside.




The market was always liable to see an early Tuesday reversal, as the s/t cylical setup was on the low end. Equities opened in minor chop mode, but then hyper spiked on news that the US would delay  tariffs until December. The market didn't care that the delay only applied to a small proportion (20% or so), with the SPX soaring to 2943... the lower end of 2943/53 gap, where the 50dma was lurking.

Or should that be...

The afternoon saw considerable price chop, with the closing hour leaning a touch weak.

Volatility was ground lower, with the VIX settling -16.9% to 17.52. The s/t cyclical setup favour the bears, offering the sp'2900 threshold with VIX 20/21s.

Turn the machines back on!

As initially highlighted by Pisani of CNBC, the SPX, Dow, and Transports effectively flat-lined from 1.42pm>1.57pm EDT.

It can't be seen as a 'healthy sign', as the equity market is set for further volatility into late summer/early autumn.

Almost full
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Goodnight from London
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