VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
VIX is back on the rise, the 18/19s look possible tomorrow. A brief foray above the 20 threshold looks due... at the earliest.. late Friday.
--
more later... on the indexes
Wednesday, 11 November 2015
VIX back on the rise
With equities closing moderately weak, the VIX settled +5.0% @ 16.06 (intra low 15.02). Near term outlook offers the sp'2050s which will equate to VIX 18/19s. The sp'2020s look viable next week, and will offer a brief venture above the key 20 threshold.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
VIX is back on the rise, the 18/19s look possible tomorrow. A brief foray above the 20 threshold looks due... at the earliest.. late Friday.
--
more later... on the indexes
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
VIX is back on the rise, the 18/19s look possible tomorrow. A brief foray above the 20 threshold looks due... at the earliest.. late Friday.
--
more later... on the indexes
Closing Brief
US equity indexes closed moderately weak, sp -6pts @ 2075 (intra high 2086). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.4% and -0.8% respectively. Near term outlook offers the 2050s, with a full natural retrace to the 2020s viable early next week.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: certainly.. leaning on the weaker side... but just holding within the bear flag.
--
So.. we didn't break the bear flag in the closing hour.. but that does look very likely tomorrow.. which should offer a rather sig' net daily decline.
To me, the only issue is whether we can battle to the 2020s by early next week... at which point it will be buying time.. for those who can stomach it.
--
more later... on the VIX
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: certainly.. leaning on the weaker side... but just holding within the bear flag.
--
So.. we didn't break the bear flag in the closing hour.. but that does look very likely tomorrow.. which should offer a rather sig' net daily decline.
To me, the only issue is whether we can battle to the 2020s by early next week... at which point it will be buying time.. for those who can stomach it.
--
more later... on the VIX
3pm update - leaning weak into the close
US equities remain choppy, but are increasingly vulnerable, as price structure remains an extremely well defined bear flag. A test.. and break of the 200dma (sp'2063) looks due tomorrow, along with VIX 18/19s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$3, with Silver -0.7%. Oil is sig' lower by -2.5% in the $42s.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
... tiresome day... too much cloud.. too little sun.. and price action... just a little tedious.
Tomorrow should be much better.. at least from a bearish perspective.
A close of 2073 or less would be provisional break of the flag... and offer a good 1-1.5% lower tomorrow. On what reason? Cyclical.
-
notable weakness across the energy sector.... CHK, CNX, RIG, SDRL.
--
back at the close.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
... tiresome day... too much cloud.. too little sun.. and price action... just a little tedious.
Tomorrow should be much better.. at least from a bearish perspective.
A close of 2073 or less would be provisional break of the flag... and offer a good 1-1.5% lower tomorrow. On what reason? Cyclical.
-
notable weakness across the energy sector.... CHK, CNX, RIG, SDRL.
--
back at the close.
2pm update - the permabear who saved the bears?
US equity indexes remain choppy.. leaning on the weaker side. Price structure is a large bear flag.. warning of a sig' break lower tomorrow to the sp'2050s... along with VIX 18/19s. Oil is notably weak, -2.3% in the $42s, and that is causing all manner of problems for energy stocks.
sp'60min
USO, daily2
Summary
Little to add.
A daily close <sp'2073 would be a decisive break of the bear flag... with first micro target of the Monday low of 2068... then 200dma @ 2063.
--
A rather exquisite piece of music... for what was a remarkable TV show.
I shall only add... I try to present a balanced view of things... despite the name.
--
back at 3pm
sp'60min
USO, daily2
Summary
Little to add.
A daily close <sp'2073 would be a decisive break of the bear flag... with first micro target of the Monday low of 2068... then 200dma @ 2063.
--
A rather exquisite piece of music... for what was a remarkable TV show.
I shall only add... I try to present a balanced view of things... despite the name.
--
back at 3pm
1pm update - holding within a big bear flag
US equities are a little higher, with the sp +4pts @ 2085. Sustained action in the 2090s looks unlikely, with threat of a marginal net daily decline. Commodities remain under pressure, Gold -$4, with Silver, -0.9%. Oil is having major issues, -2.3% in the $42s.
sp'60min
GLD, daily
Summary
*metals/miners remain broadly weak... there is nothing good there... but then.. I'd guess Hemke and other gold bugs are still bullish. What else could they be?
--
So.. another micro wave higher.. and we're positive again.
Without question though.. price action is broadly subdued.. and it seems just a matter of when the next break comes.
I'm guessing we'll see a sig' net daily decline tomorrow... with a key break under the 200dma of sp'2063... and perhaps a net daily close in the 2050s.
The 2020s look viable next week.
--
back at 2pm
sp'60min
GLD, daily
Summary
*metals/miners remain broadly weak... there is nothing good there... but then.. I'd guess Hemke and other gold bugs are still bullish. What else could they be?
--
So.. another micro wave higher.. and we're positive again.
Without question though.. price action is broadly subdued.. and it seems just a matter of when the next break comes.
I'm guessing we'll see a sig' net daily decline tomorrow... with a key break under the 200dma of sp'2063... and perhaps a net daily close in the 2050s.
The 2020s look viable next week.
--
back at 2pm
12pm update - murky bearish skies
US equities remain choppy - much like the previous two days. Price structure is an increasingly large bear flag.. which is suggestive of the 2050/40s in the next wave lower. The sp'2020s remain the most natural level for the market to floor next week. Oil is notably weak, -2.4% in the $42s.
sp'daily5
USO'daily2
Summary
*the weakness in Oil is going to put some degree of downward pressure on the market for the remainder of the year.
.. but then, I see lower energy prices as bullish. Or maybe you'd like to pay more for gasoline and your domestic fuel?
--
Hard to call whether we'll close marginally higher.. or lower. There are certainly some strong decliners today in commodity/energy land though...
Nat' gas, CHK -4%
Coal miners, CNX -8%
Oil/gas drillers, RIG, -4%, SDRL -8%
FCX -6%, lower for the sixth consecutive day.
Apache (APA), -6%, as takeover chatter cools
--
Here in London city...
Not exactly inspiring, at least another five months until its warm and bright again.
--
VIX update from Mr T.
--
time for lunch
sp'daily5
USO'daily2
Summary
*the weakness in Oil is going to put some degree of downward pressure on the market for the remainder of the year.
.. but then, I see lower energy prices as bullish. Or maybe you'd like to pay more for gasoline and your domestic fuel?
--
Hard to call whether we'll close marginally higher.. or lower. There are certainly some strong decliners today in commodity/energy land though...
Nat' gas, CHK -4%
Coal miners, CNX -8%
Oil/gas drillers, RIG, -4%, SDRL -8%
FCX -6%, lower for the sixth consecutive day.
Apache (APA), -6%, as takeover chatter cools
--
Here in London city...
Not exactly inspiring, at least another five months until its warm and bright again.
--
VIX update from Mr T.
--
time for lunch
11am update - increasingly weak
With too few willing to buy in the sp'2080s, the market has rolled over. First soft target remains the 200dma (sp'2064/63). VIX is proceeding higher in a stair step fashion from the FOMC low of 12.80.... headed for the low 20s. Oil is notably weak, -1.6% in the $43s.
sp'60min
USO, daily2
Summary
*the weakness in Oil is clearly not helping the broader market... and talk will no doubt start to build about a possible loss of the $40 threshold before year end.
The bigger weekly cycles remain outright bearish.
--
So.. equities are a little lower (note the opening black-fail candle as an early warning.. at top of the bear flag), but price action remains very subdued. First opportunity for the next sig' down day is tomorrow... and arguably more so... Friday.
A move to the sp'2020s remains the favoured retrace.. but that is clearly out of range until next week.
--
notable weakness: FCX -7%, AAPL, -1.0%.
TWTR -2.0%.. as the momo chasers are again absent.
--
back at 12pm
sp'60min
USO, daily2
Summary
*the weakness in Oil is clearly not helping the broader market... and talk will no doubt start to build about a possible loss of the $40 threshold before year end.
The bigger weekly cycles remain outright bearish.
--
So.. equities are a little lower (note the opening black-fail candle as an early warning.. at top of the bear flag), but price action remains very subdued. First opportunity for the next sig' down day is tomorrow... and arguably more so... Friday.
A move to the sp'2020s remains the favoured retrace.. but that is clearly out of range until next week.
--
notable weakness: FCX -7%, AAPL, -1.0%.
TWTR -2.0%.. as the momo chasers are again absent.
--
back at 12pm
10am update - shaky opening gains
US equities open a little higher, but the gains look unsustainable. Renewed weakness to the low sp'2060s remains viable in the near term, with the 2020s next week. Whilst the USD is -0.3% in the DXY 99.00s, the metals are again weak, Gold -$2, with Silver -0.7%.
sp'60min
GLD, daily
Summary
*interesting to see the opening hourly candle (a black-fail no less) is stuck precisely at top of the bear flag.
--
So... a little choppy.. and market still feels tired.
A moderate net daily decline looks due... anything <2070 would be a bonus, and setup tomorrow for a break under the 200dma (2064).. and into the 2050s.
--
notable weakness, AAPL
Equity bulls should be seeking AAPL to hold $110... even if sp'2020s next week.
--
stay tuned
10.03am.. BABA not having such a great start.. despite opening the NYSE
Ugly opening decline.. next support not until $70... where the 50dma is lurking.
-
10.27am... sp -3pts... 2078...
notable weakness, Oil, -1.3%... note.. there is no EIA report at 10.30am.. due to the semi-holiday.
sp'60min
GLD, daily
Summary
*interesting to see the opening hourly candle (a black-fail no less) is stuck precisely at top of the bear flag.
--
So... a little choppy.. and market still feels tired.
A moderate net daily decline looks due... anything <2070 would be a bonus, and setup tomorrow for a break under the 200dma (2064).. and into the 2050s.
--
notable weakness, AAPL
Equity bulls should be seeking AAPL to hold $110... even if sp'2020s next week.
--
stay tuned
10.03am.. BABA not having such a great start.. despite opening the NYSE
Ugly opening decline.. next support not until $70... where the 50dma is lurking.
-
10.27am... sp -3pts... 2078...
notable weakness, Oil, -1.3%... note.. there is no EIA report at 10.30am.. due to the semi-holiday.
Pre-Market Brief
Good morning. US equity futures are moderately higher, sp +8pts, we're set to open at 2089. Sustained action above the 2100 threshold looks unlikely before a larger retrace completes, at least to test the 200dma of sp'2063.
sp'60min
Summary
So... we're set to open higher, and with no scheduled data/events today, there is little reason to expect any particularly dynamic price action.
A marginal net daily decline is certainly still possible though, but a test of the 200dma looks out of range until tomorrow/Friday.
-
notable early weakness: AAPL, -0.6% in the $115s... still weak in the short term, headed for 114/112. Sustained action <110 looks difficult.
--
Doomer chat, hunter with TF, aka, Hemke
The usual nonsense from one of the infamous gold bugs. There is talk of shortages, manipulation, the same old crap you'd expect to hear from someone obsessed with shiny things.
Lets keep in mind, the guy was bullish Gold from $1900 to the $1200s. Then takes a bite of his foam hat in an infamous capitulation of 'I was wrong'... and then flips his site to a subscription basis.
Naturally, a fair few hundred (so I gather) of the Gold bugs were more than willing to throw money at the once self titled 'Turd Furguson', who originated from the cesspool that is Zerohedge.
If you can stomach it, it is a fine example in just how batshit crazy the Gold bugs still are. Until people like him capitulate... the physical metals have not floored.
--
Overnight Asia action
Japan: +0.1% @ 19691
China: +0.3% @ 3650
--
.. and for those that watched the above video, to mentally cleanse yourself... I suggest the following...
--
Have a good Wednesday
9.37am.. opening reversal in progress.... indexes set to turn red.
Gold is already -$1. No doubt.. the bugs will blame JPM for it.
sp'60min
Summary
So... we're set to open higher, and with no scheduled data/events today, there is little reason to expect any particularly dynamic price action.
A marginal net daily decline is certainly still possible though, but a test of the 200dma looks out of range until tomorrow/Friday.
-
notable early weakness: AAPL, -0.6% in the $115s... still weak in the short term, headed for 114/112. Sustained action <110 looks difficult.
--
Doomer chat, hunter with TF, aka, Hemke
The usual nonsense from one of the infamous gold bugs. There is talk of shortages, manipulation, the same old crap you'd expect to hear from someone obsessed with shiny things.
Lets keep in mind, the guy was bullish Gold from $1900 to the $1200s. Then takes a bite of his foam hat in an infamous capitulation of 'I was wrong'... and then flips his site to a subscription basis.
Naturally, a fair few hundred (so I gather) of the Gold bugs were more than willing to throw money at the once self titled 'Turd Furguson', who originated from the cesspool that is Zerohedge.
If you can stomach it, it is a fine example in just how batshit crazy the Gold bugs still are. Until people like him capitulate... the physical metals have not floored.
--
Overnight Asia action
Japan: +0.1% @ 19691
China: +0.3% @ 3650
--
.. and for those that watched the above video, to mentally cleanse yourself... I suggest the following...
--
Have a good Wednesday
9.37am.. opening reversal in progress.... indexes set to turn red.
Gold is already -$1. No doubt.. the bugs will blame JPM for it.
The under-rated October candle
Regardless of how the rest of November trades, the October net gains are still not being taken particularly seriously by even the cheerleaders on clown finance TV. Yet that was similarly the case in Oct'2011. Broadly, the market looks set to break new highs in some indexes (Dow, sp'500, Nasdaq) before year end.
sp'monthly1b
sp'weekly1b
Summary
I haven't been reading as widely as I tend to do. What I do see though continues to bemuse me.
After a monstrous Oct' net gain in ALL US (and most world) equity indexes, I still see a lot of bearish chatter. How can that be, after one of the biggest net monthly gains we have EVER seen?
Has almost everyone forgotten what sentiment was like in Oct/Nov 2011? Remember how the bears were screaming for renewed weakness... only for the market to push upward.. and keep pushing for the better part of almost FOUR YEARS.
I can't be the only one out there wondering (or should that be fearing) the Oct' 2015 candle as an extraordinarily clear signal that the market has seen a washout.. and we're broadly headed higher into late spring 2016.
--
re: weekly. A net weekly decline looks highly probable. The only issue is whether we close above.. or a little below the 200dma (sp'2063). Secondary target of the 2020s certainly is out of range until next week.
--
Looking ahead
Wed' will see... nothing. US banks are closed.. but market is open.
*the usual EIA oil report will be delayed until Thursday.
--
Goodnight from London
sp'monthly1b
sp'weekly1b
Summary
I haven't been reading as widely as I tend to do. What I do see though continues to bemuse me.
After a monstrous Oct' net gain in ALL US (and most world) equity indexes, I still see a lot of bearish chatter. How can that be, after one of the biggest net monthly gains we have EVER seen?
Has almost everyone forgotten what sentiment was like in Oct/Nov 2011? Remember how the bears were screaming for renewed weakness... only for the market to push upward.. and keep pushing for the better part of almost FOUR YEARS.
I can't be the only one out there wondering (or should that be fearing) the Oct' 2015 candle as an extraordinarily clear signal that the market has seen a washout.. and we're broadly headed higher into late spring 2016.
--
re: weekly. A net weekly decline looks highly probable. The only issue is whether we close above.. or a little below the 200dma (sp'2063). Secondary target of the 2020s certainly is out of range until next week.
--
Looking ahead
Wed' will see... nothing. US banks are closed.. but market is open.
*the usual EIA oil report will be delayed until Thursday.
--
Goodnight from London
Daily Index Cycle update
US equities closed moderately mixed, sp +3pts @ 2081 (intra
low 2069). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled u/c and +0.3%
respectively. Near term outlook is for a test of the 200dma (2063)..
with the 2020s viable next week.
sp'daily5
Dow
Summary
So, the sp'500 managed a minor net daily gain.
Broadly... the market still looks set for weakness into early next week. Best bearish case remains the sp'2020s. Sustained price action under the sp'2K threshold looks out of range... for the remainder of the year.
--
a little more later...
sp'daily5
Dow
Summary
So, the sp'500 managed a minor net daily gain.
Broadly... the market still looks set for weakness into early next week. Best bearish case remains the sp'2020s. Sustained price action under the sp'2K threshold looks out of range... for the remainder of the year.
--
a little more later...
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