Sunday 30 December 2012

Sunday Night Futures update

The Futures have opened roughly where we closed in the Friday after hours trading session.

As at 6.15pm, we're set to open sp -4pts, @ 1398.



Special note

Futures closed in Friday after hours trading  sp -25pts, and that was 10pts lower than the actual 'real market' close.

So..even though sites like forexpros are currently saying sp+6pts... actually, we're still -4 net.

*even sp+10pts.. would thus mean we're still flat from the actual Friday close. necessary...

UPDATE 7.05pm futures holding -5pts...we're set to open around sp'1397/98.. - which is that key low from some weeks back.

Bears really need a move <1390, for that we need to see -12pts..from the Friday close.

UPDATE 8.55pm futures holding -6pts...we're set to open 1396.

The hourly charts are very low on the MACD cycle, so I'm very much concerned we'll only decline to around 1390 in early Monday trading..and then bounce.

How high an intra-day bounce?

I'd guess 1400 is certainly possible, but considering 'everything' a red close still seems likely.

Lets be clear, unless you think we're going to new index highs...then I can only suggest stare at the weekly charts I posted this weekend..and what do most of them suggest?

I remain heavy short... indexes.. long VIX, but I'll look to exit at the open.

UPDATE 10.10pm..well, its all flat..futures are +5pts....but take off the 10' from the Friday close...and we're still a net -5.

So, we are set to open <1400, first level is the 200 day @ 1390. I'm guessing that will hold, at least in front of an intra-day bounce.

goodnight from London