VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
There is little to add. VIX remains bizarrely low, and will likely remain so until the new year.
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more later..on the indexes
Wednesday, 27 November 2013
Volatility micro spikes into the close
Whilst equity indexes clawed moderately higher, the VIX managed to hold positive, with a micro spike into the close, +1.3% @ 12.98. Near term outlook is for VIX to remain in the 11/15 zone. VIX >20 does not look viable until at least late Jan'2014.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
There is little to add. VIX remains bizarrely low, and will likely remain so until the new year.
-
more later..on the indexes
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
There is little to add. VIX remains bizarrely low, and will likely remain so until the new year.
-
more later..on the indexes
Closing Brief
US equities closed moderately higher, with the sp +4pts @ 1807. The two leaders - Trans/R2k, broke new highs, both settling +0.6%. Near term outlook remains a little uncertain, but the broader trend remains unquestionably strong.
sp'60min
Summary
Another day for the bulls..and bears just lack any real downside power..as has been the case for almost the entire year.
With heavy QE next week, I'm resigned to assuming higher levels..rather than even a slight 1-2% retracement.
--
Well..to all those in the USA..have a good thanksgiving!
To everyone else on the planet..enjoy the day off!
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The usual bits and pieces to wrap up the day...across the evening.
sp'60min
Summary
Another day for the bulls..and bears just lack any real downside power..as has been the case for almost the entire year.
With heavy QE next week, I'm resigned to assuming higher levels..rather than even a slight 1-2% retracement.
--
Well..to all those in the USA..have a good thanksgiving!
To everyone else on the planet..enjoy the day off!
-
The usual bits and pieces to wrap up the day...across the evening.
3pm update - bulls giving thanks to QE-pomo
Across the last 25 months, the sp'500 has rallied 68%. It is probably safe to argue that 90% of those 730pts are due to the Fed. Unquestionably..the bull maniacs should be giving all their thanks to the Bernanke..and soon...the Yellen monster.
sp'60min (with metals)
AAPL, daily
Summary
New QE-pomo schedule for December (released @ 3pm)
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*AAPL looking strong, and set for further gains in the remainder of the year, 580/600 looks a relatively easy target zone to hit.
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Unlike yesterday..I don't think there is much chance of any sig' closing hour rollover. More likely..we'll even see a touch of algo-bot melt into the close.
Weekly charts are offering sp'1815/25 into next week.
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*I will hold short-SLV, across the Thursday break....seeking an exit in the 18.60/50s
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3.05pm.. Jeez, look at the QE schedule for next week.
HEAVY QE.. Tue, Wed, and Friday. Bears haven't a hope.
3.15pm.. Bitcoin breaks $1000. That is bullish for the broader market...yes?
I will note Santelli on clown finance TV, I do understand the irony in that BTC might soon be priced higher than a real oz' of Gold.
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3.41pm... just look at this nonsense...
AMZN, daily
The 400s soon..and probably 500s by end spring 2014. Utter...madness!
sp'60min (with metals)
AAPL, daily
Summary
New QE-pomo schedule for December (released @ 3pm)
--
*AAPL looking strong, and set for further gains in the remainder of the year, 580/600 looks a relatively easy target zone to hit.
--
Unlike yesterday..I don't think there is much chance of any sig' closing hour rollover. More likely..we'll even see a touch of algo-bot melt into the close.
Weekly charts are offering sp'1815/25 into next week.
-
*I will hold short-SLV, across the Thursday break....seeking an exit in the 18.60/50s
-
3.05pm.. Jeez, look at the QE schedule for next week.
HEAVY QE.. Tue, Wed, and Friday. Bears haven't a hope.
3.15pm.. Bitcoin breaks $1000. That is bullish for the broader market...yes?
I will note Santelli on clown finance TV, I do understand the irony in that BTC might soon be priced higher than a real oz' of Gold.
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3.41pm... just look at this nonsense...
AMZN, daily
The 400s soon..and probably 500s by end spring 2014. Utter...madness!
2pm update - continued micro chop
The main indexes are holding slight gains, after briefly turning red. It remains a naturally quiet pre-holiday day. Metals remain weak, Gold -$3, Silver -0.8%. Oil is significantly lower, -2.0%. VIX looks set to melt lower into the close.
sp'60min
AAPL, daily
Summary
Little to add..things are likely to largely flat line into the close.
Certainly.. sp' is still stuck under the 1808 high, but hey..other indexes are breaking new highs today..most notably the transports.
sp'60min
AAPL, daily
Summary
Little to add..things are likely to largely flat line into the close.
Certainly.. sp' is still stuck under the 1808 high, but hey..other indexes are breaking new highs today..most notably the transports.
1pm update - is it turkey time yet?
The main indexes are holding slight gains ahead of the Thanksgiving break. With the sp' still stuck under 1808, there remains moderate chance of downside into early next week, but underlying pressure remains to the upside. Metals continue to slide..along with Oil, -2.1%
sp'60min (with metals)
SLV, daily3, H/S
Summary
Quiet day...as expected.
Most notable..the strength in AAPL, whilst Oil/metals both very weak.
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*I remain short SLV from 19.23, seeking my next exit in the 18.60/50s this Friday/early next week.
My target for the current multi-week cycle is a very clear 17...if not even 15..which would really rattle the gold/silver bugs into year end.
sp'60min (with metals)
SLV, daily3, H/S
Summary
Quiet day...as expected.
Most notable..the strength in AAPL, whilst Oil/metals both very weak.
--
*I remain short SLV from 19.23, seeking my next exit in the 18.60/50s this Friday/early next week.
My target for the current multi-week cycle is a very clear 17...if not even 15..which would really rattle the gold/silver bugs into year end.
12pm update - quiet afternoon ahead
The indexes look set to flat line into the close. Despite some notable strength in leaders like AAPL, the sp'500 seems unable to decisively clear..and hold above 1808, ahead of the holiday break. Metals have turned red..and Oil remains lower by a significant -1.75%
sp'60min (with metals)
Summary
Price action in the metals looks particularly weak, and I'm in full agreement with Carboni, metals and Oil look set for much lower levels. The latter of course is an obvious benefit to the wider economy..and bodes for better earnings in Q1.
Hey..if yours truly can see..and admit that, why can't the rest of you ;)
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time for lunch :)
sp'60min (with metals)
Summary
Price action in the metals looks particularly weak, and I'm in full agreement with Carboni, metals and Oil look set for much lower levels. The latter of course is an obvious benefit to the wider economy..and bodes for better earnings in Q1.
Hey..if yours truly can see..and admit that, why can't the rest of you ;)
--
time for lunch :)
11am update - AAPL is telling the story
The current price action in AAPL is very telling for the broader market, and with the break >536, equity bears look to be in a world of hurt for the rest of the year. Metals look weak, whilst Oil is already significantly lower, -1.5%.
sp'60min (with metals)
USO, daily
Summary
Well, at least there are some things to cover today..so, it shouldn't be too tedious!
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*Near term targets on the weekly cycle... sp'1840/60, Trans 7400, Nasdaq 4200s
As I will keep saying, the notion of a 'significant' sell down into year end looks to be nonsense talk.
Worse still..when the debt ceiling comes around in Jan/Feb..and we do sell lower by 4-7%..many will lose themselves in bearish hysteria..only to get whipsawed in yet another wave higher across March/May.
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Interesting action in DRYS
Looks like DRYS has found a floor in the low 3s..and is now trying to make a break for it..first target is the recent $4 high. A move >4 in early 2014..very viable. For those who are looking for general upside into 2015..I'd have to look for DRYS to be a 15/20$ stock..with the BDI in the 6000s.
11.20am.. AAPL @ 544...looking strong...daily charts offering 570/75 within the immediate term.
sp'60min (with metals)
USO, daily
Summary
Well, at least there are some things to cover today..so, it shouldn't be too tedious!
-
*Near term targets on the weekly cycle... sp'1840/60, Trans 7400, Nasdaq 4200s
As I will keep saying, the notion of a 'significant' sell down into year end looks to be nonsense talk.
Worse still..when the debt ceiling comes around in Jan/Feb..and we do sell lower by 4-7%..many will lose themselves in bearish hysteria..only to get whipsawed in yet another wave higher across March/May.
-
Interesting action in DRYS
Looks like DRYS has found a floor in the low 3s..and is now trying to make a break for it..first target is the recent $4 high. A move >4 in early 2014..very viable. For those who are looking for general upside into 2015..I'd have to look for DRYS to be a 15/20$ stock..with the BDI in the 6000s.
11.20am.. AAPL @ 544...looking strong...daily charts offering 570/75 within the immediate term.
10am update - pre-holiday slumber
Good morning. The market opens a touch higher, and looks set for quiet chop across the day. Equity bears face the relentless broader upside pressure. Metals open moderately higher, with Gold +$7. Oil is significantly lower by -1.5%.
sp'60min
AAPL, daily
Summary
*notable early mover... AAPL..into the 540s..set for the 575/600 zone by end year.
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If we break over 1808..then..I'm not exactly sure what to do with the current wave-count. Besides, the R2K is powering higher...urghh
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Video update from Mr Permabull...who is wildly bullish.
There is a lot to say about the above..suffice to say..finally..someone else out there is touting sp'2100/2200s, which is what I've been suggesting for some months.
As it is..a 'baseline' of sp'1950/2050 in the current Oct'2011 wave, seems 'reasonable'.
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Near term targets...Trans 7400..which might equate to sp'1840/60 zone. On any basis, it still seems pointless to consider any index-shorts until late spring 2014.
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updates across the day!
10.25am... market still stuck <1808.... Oil weak...metals..turning red.
Maybe we'll see a little down wave after all. Regardless...holiday trading...not many around today!
sp'60min
AAPL, daily
Summary
*notable early mover... AAPL..into the 540s..set for the 575/600 zone by end year.
--
If we break over 1808..then..I'm not exactly sure what to do with the current wave-count. Besides, the R2K is powering higher...urghh
--
Video update from Mr Permabull...who is wildly bullish.
There is a lot to say about the above..suffice to say..finally..someone else out there is touting sp'2100/2200s, which is what I've been suggesting for some months.
As it is..a 'baseline' of sp'1950/2050 in the current Oct'2011 wave, seems 'reasonable'.
--
Near term targets...Trans 7400..which might equate to sp'1840/60 zone. On any basis, it still seems pointless to consider any index-shorts until late spring 2014.
-
updates across the day!
10.25am... market still stuck <1808.... Oil weak...metals..turning red.
Maybe we'll see a little down wave after all. Regardless...holiday trading...not many around today!
The next big down wave
US equities look set for broad upside into spring 2014, but what
then? The current multi-month rally is now 25 months in duration..and by
next spring, we will be more than overdue a major correction - probably
on the order of 17/22%
sp'weekly9 - fib levels
sp'weekly8 - mid-term bullish outlook
Summary
First...I should clarify my upside target zone for spring 2014.
Dow 17000/500, which should equate to sp'500, somewhere in the 1950/2050 zone.
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For weekly'9 chart above...assuming we max out around 2000. Taking the starting point of Oct'2011..first major fib...0.38%..would take us down to the mid 1600s. That would be a VERY strong and significant wave lower.
Summer/autumn 2011...as summer/autumn 2014 ?
More than anything, I would be looking for the next major wave lower to be somewhat in style to what we saw in 2011. It will probably take a few months to form a clear top, and then only 1-2 months for the major downside to play out.
As many of the chart-cyclists are mentioning, Aug/September 2014 would be a key time zone to look for the market to see a major low put in.
From there...a hyper-ramp into late 2015/early 2016. For me, the only issue is whether the indexes then battle to sp'2500...or much...much higher.
Looking ahead
Wednesday has an array of econ-data...there is certainly something for Mr Market to use as an excuse for further weakness..with easy downside to the sp'1795/90 zone. Of course, since Thursday is closed, volume will likely be even less than today.
*there is no sig' QE-pomo due until at least Friday. The new QE schedule is due Wed' 2pm.
--
The closing hour of today was certainly fun to watch and be part of. Hopefully, equity bears can see a little follow through for the rest of the week.
Goodnight from London
sp'weekly9 - fib levels
sp'weekly8 - mid-term bullish outlook
Summary
First...I should clarify my upside target zone for spring 2014.
Dow 17000/500, which should equate to sp'500, somewhere in the 1950/2050 zone.
-
For weekly'9 chart above...assuming we max out around 2000. Taking the starting point of Oct'2011..first major fib...0.38%..would take us down to the mid 1600s. That would be a VERY strong and significant wave lower.
Summer/autumn 2011...as summer/autumn 2014 ?
More than anything, I would be looking for the next major wave lower to be somewhat in style to what we saw in 2011. It will probably take a few months to form a clear top, and then only 1-2 months for the major downside to play out.
As many of the chart-cyclists are mentioning, Aug/September 2014 would be a key time zone to look for the market to see a major low put in.
From there...a hyper-ramp into late 2015/early 2016. For me, the only issue is whether the indexes then battle to sp'2500...or much...much higher.
Looking ahead
Wednesday has an array of econ-data...there is certainly something for Mr Market to use as an excuse for further weakness..with easy downside to the sp'1795/90 zone. Of course, since Thursday is closed, volume will likely be even less than today.
*there is no sig' QE-pomo due until at least Friday. The new QE schedule is due Wed' 2pm.
--
The closing hour of today was certainly fun to watch and be part of. Hopefully, equity bears can see a little follow through for the rest of the week.
Goodnight from London
Daily Index Cycle update
The main indexes closed weak, with the sp +0.3pts @ 1802. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.1% and +0.9% respectively. There is near term opportunity for a minor down wave to the sp'1780/70s, before pushing higher again across December.
sp'daily5
R2K
Trans
Summary
It never fails to amaze me just how powerfully bullish the R2K is. Sub'1000s are now a clear 11% below..and I dare anyone to suggest we have any hope of a decline >7% before the late spring.
--
With it being a holiday week, price action is quiet, but overall..there is fair chance for some further weakness into Friday - which is itself a half day.
Right now..best guess...bears manage the 1780s early Friday..but then... up up up!
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a little more later...
sp'daily5
R2K
Trans
Summary
It never fails to amaze me just how powerfully bullish the R2K is. Sub'1000s are now a clear 11% below..and I dare anyone to suggest we have any hope of a decline >7% before the late spring.
--
With it being a holiday week, price action is quiet, but overall..there is fair chance for some further weakness into Friday - which is itself a half day.
Right now..best guess...bears manage the 1780s early Friday..but then... up up up!
-
a little more later...
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