VIX remains very subdued

Whilst equity indexes closed moderately mixed, the VIX was naturally very subdued, settling -1.0% @ 14.57. Near term outlook threatens an attempt to break/hold the sp'2080s.. but that will likely fail, with an eventual break under the Friday low of 2039.. which should equate to VIX >16.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Suffice to add... as has been the case since late February, the VIX remains broadly subdued.

Even if sp'2000/1990s before next opex (May'20th)... the VIX will not likely see sustained action above the key 20 threshold.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +1pt @ 2058. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled u/c and +0.3% respectively. Near term outlook offers a further push to around 2080, but a bullish breakout looks unlikely. Instead, equity bears should get opportunity to break the Friday low of 2039.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: a lot of chop, but clearly cooling into the close.
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Well.. a pretty quiet start to the week.. despite some big moves in commodity land.

The break lines are pretty clear...

1. Equity bulls break and hold above 2080.. in which case.. a move above 2111 is viable

or..

2. Regardless of any further chop... a break under the Friday low of 2039.. which will open up an important daily close in the 2020s, and that should resolve into a short term floor around 2000/1990s.

Right now, I'm still leaning to the latter scenario...  and if the USD can keep climbing.. that will really increase the underlying downward pressure.

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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - a day of chop

The closing hour is set for more chop.. on what has been a pretty subdued day, well, except for the miners and anything energy related. A sustained move above sp'2080 looks really difficult this week, whilst equity bears should be seeking a break under the Friday low of 2039 to open up the 2000/1990s.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

More so than equities, the VIX is reflecting a market that remains extremely complacent.. with no concerns of anything in the near term.

The bigger weekly chart is offering the 25/30 zone end month.. but for now.. even a move to the key 20 threshold looks very difficult this week.
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notable weakness... CHK, daily

Early pre-market gains of 5% have turned to an ugly -10%. Considering the Friday close was -20% or so... its been a nightmarish few days for those meddling in what remains a company that is liable to disappearing entirely.

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back at the close.

2pm update - metals and miners whacked

Whilst the broader US equity market remains in minor chop mode, there is notable weakness in the precious metals, with Gold -$23, and Silver -2.5%. The related mining stocks are naturally on the slide, with the ETF of GDX -5.6% in the $23s.


GLD, daily

GDX, daily

Summary

Yes.. the declines in the metals and miners are very significant, but broadly, both are holding well above their bullish breakout levels seen in Jan/February.

No doubt, the USD - higher for a fifth consecutive day: +0.4% in the DXY 94.20s, is no doubt a major contributing factor.

UUP, daily

... clearly at resistance.. another day higher.. and things will get interesting.

1pm update - remaining in chop mode

US equities remain in minor chop mode, although with some distinct weakness in the energy/mining sector. VIX remains broadly subdued in the 14s, and even a move to the sp'2000/1990s, would still see the VIX struggle to break above the key 20 threshold.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

Little to add, as the market churns.

Without question, at the next rollover.. equity bears should be desperate to take out the Friday low of 2039, to offer the more interesting 2000/1990s.

.. and it remains the case that next opp' for sig/sustained downside is unlikely before the tail end of the month.

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notable weakness... CAT

One of the particularly weak DOW components... next support is the 200dma in the 69s.

12pm update - weak oil

Whilst the main indexes remain in minor chop mode (if leaning increasingly to the downside), there has been a very strong swing in Oil, from early gains of around +2% to -2% in the $43s. Regardless of the Canadian/Alberta fire issue... the global over supply problem remains entirely... unresolved.


USO, daily2

sp'60min

Summary

Not much to add.

Broadly.. it sure is choppy, and the market is clearly being impacted by Oil, which is really damaging energy stocks, even the giants like XOM and CVX (hence the Dow is particularly weak).

As things are, next chance of sig' downside won't be until tomorrow at the earliest. Key low to break is of course sp'2039.

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notable weakness, oil/gas drillers, SDRL, daily

Note the recent black-fail candle from end April. SDRL is really starting to unravel, along with similar names like RIG, DO.
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time to see what the cheerleaders are saying on clown finance TV..........

11am update - chop chop

US equities remain in minor chop mode... but are starting to lean weak. From a pure cyclical perspective, the hourly cycle is offering a rollover from sp'2064. Equity bears should be seeking a moderate net daily decline, with a viable break of the 2039 low tomorrow.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

Not much to add.

That upside gap of sp'2081/77 remains a threat, but if we going to break 2039 low.. we really shouldn't go much higher than this mornings high.

The bigger weekly cycles are  increasingly swinging back to the equity bears... first real chance of significant and sustained downside... late May.

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notable weakness, miners, GDX, daily

A clear break of trend, but broadly... the metals AND miners are still exceptionally bullish... so long as the USD doesn't explode through the DXY 100 threshold.

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time to cook

10am update - opening chop

US equities open with some mixed minor chop, leaning on the positive side. USD is catching some attention from the mainstream, currently +0.3% in the DXY 94s. Metals are sharply lower, Gold -$24, with Silver -3.0%. Oil has swung from sig' pre-market gains of almost 2% to -1.4% in the $44s.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

So.. its a bit of a messy start to the week, as Mr Market is pulled lower by China... but dragged upward by the EU markets - especially the German DAX.

Once we get past 11am.. there will be increasing likelihood the market will rollover.. and close net lower.

Clearly, the Friday low of 2039 is now first target. A daily close in the 2020s should give initial clarity/confidence that 2111 is indeed a key mid term high.

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notable weakness... miners, FCX, daily

Ugly stock... ugly balance sheet... FCX remains highly vulnerable, next support is around the $10 threshold.. which is another 8% lower.
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stay tuned !

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are moderately higher, sp +6pts, we're set to open at 2063. USD continues to claw upward, +0.2% in the DXY 94.00s. Metals are under pressure, Gold -$15, with Silver -0.9%. WTIC oil is +1.9% in the $45s.


sp'60min

Summary

Well... considering the price action from last Friday, its not exactly surprising to see the market is set to open somewhat to the upside.

As a fair few recognise, price structure since the 2111 high is arguably one giant bullish wedge/flag. Some equity bulls could justifiably argue we're headed >2111 and onward to 2134.. and the proverbial moon.

However, much the same was said last Nov/December... and that didn't end so well for the bull maniacs.

Best guess:  the week begins positive, but resistance (2077 at the Wed' close) will hold, and a third consecutive net weekly decline in the 2020/1990s remains viable.

Any break >2080 after the Wed' open would bode for a strong bullish breakout.
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early movers...

CHK +4.6%... but then.. it was lower by almost -20% last Friday... and the company remains on my disappear list.

GDX -2.5%.. as the metals are on the slide... no doubt with concerns about the recovering USD.

TSLA +1.3% in the $217s, but still broadly weak...  the 200/195 zone looks due this month.


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Overnight action

Japan: +0.7% @ 16216

China: broadly weak, -2.8% @ 2832, as someone important suggest no further easing.

Germany: currently +1.9% @ 10053. Again, the 10K threshold is important... equity bulls need to hold the gains.. or another reversal this week threatens much lower levels into end month.

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Have a good Monday