Tuesday 31 March 2015

VIX breaks upward

With equities unravelling into the close of Q1, the VIX jumped, settling +5.4% @ 15.29. Near term outlook offers a test of the 200dma in the sp'2010s.. which should equate to VIX breaking the recent high of 17.19. The door is opening to the key VIX 20 threshold.


VIX'60min



VIX'daily3



Summary

*since it is end month... a rare highlight of the VIX monthly...


So.. across the month, the VIX gained 14.6%, but remains at a relatively low level.

Upper monthly bol' is offering the 20 threshold in April.. anything much above 21/22 will be difficult.
--

more later.... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities ended the month/quarter on a pretty negative note, sp -18pts @ 2067. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.5% and -0.4% respectively. With the break of rising trend (from the Wed' low of sp'2045)... the door has opened to a test of the 200dma in the sp'2010s.


sp'60min


Summary

... another day comes to a close.. but also... Q1.

Suffice to say... a bit of a choppy day.. but with some rather significant weakness into the close.

With the break of trend on the hourly cycle... the door is now open to a test of the 200dma in the sp'2010s.. although that clearly is more viable next week.. than before the 3 day Easter break.

Have a good evening
--

*since it is end month, a FULL set of updates across the evening to wrap up the month... and quarter.

3pm update - time to wrap up Q1

US equities remain moderately weak, with the sp' making a play to test the rising trend - which at the close of today will be around sp'2072. Metals remain weak, Gold -$2, whilst Oil remains broadly weak, -1.8%. Trading activity will likely be pretty high into the quarterly close.


sp'60min



VIX'60min


Summary

*VIX did break above the morning high.. next level are the 15.50s.
--

Well, its been a pretty choppy opening quarter to the year. Yes.. the bears will see a net monthly decline, but the equity bulls have managed a net quarterly gain (>2058).

Notable strength: TWTR +1.7%
-

If we can break <2070.. then I realise many will be calling the recent rally from sp'2045 to 2088, a B or 2 wave... there are some interesting downside scenarios with that.
-

... updates into the close.. not least.. if market can take out rising trend.. although that is seemingly unlikely.


---
3.17pm... Some drama.. as market BREAKS rising trend..... sp'2070... VIX confirms the move.

Door is opening to more significant downside...... as Q1 wraps up.


3.23pm.. So... break of trend.... VIX confirming the move.

Things really get interesting on a move <2060.... which open up 200dma in the sp'2010s.

In any case.. at least today is ending with some price action!.

Notable weakness:  AAPL -1.4%
-


3.36pm...  sp'2068.....  VIX confirming the downside break..... its looking real interesting for Wednesday.

2pm update - continued chop

US equities remain in minor chop mode, around sp'2080. VIX remains subdued, +1% in the 14.60s. Gold is increasingly weak, -$3, whilst Oil is holding moderate declines of -0.7%. Broadly... it remains a relatively dull end to Q1.


sp'60min


Summary

With two trading hours left of Q1.. it remains dull.

*I see a few are still open to much lower levels.. even into the mid sp'1900s.. but that is completely off the agenda unless we break under 2060. Right now.. I can't see that.
--

Notable weakness: coal miners , BTU -7.7% in the $4s.



The horror continues.

1pm update - end month chop

Market has slipped into minor chop mode.. ahead of end month/Q1. A net monthly decline for most indexes looks a given.. but Q1 is set to close net higher. VIX remains subdued, +1.5% in the 14.70s. Metals are a touch higher, Gold +$1. Oil remains broadly weak, -1.5% in the $47s.


sp'60min


Summary

Smaller 5/15min cycles are offering another minor wave lower into the 2pm hour.. but overall.. looks like zero chance of a daily close <2070.
-

Notable strength: TWTR, +2.4%.. .back above the key $50 threshold. Increasing chatter - not least on clown finance TV, about the massive popularity about their recent purchase of Periscope.

12pm update - minor weakness

US equities remain a little weak, with key rising support in the sp'2070/75 zone. VIX is showing no concern, +1% in the 14.60s. Gold +$2... but set for a net monthly decline of around 2%. Oil remains broadly weak, -0.6%, also set to close the month net lower by around -2%.


sp'60min


VIX'60min


Summary

Little to add.

Early declines.. nothing of significance.. and even if we break a new low in the late afternoon, it does little to negate the Monday gains.

Notable weakness: TCK -9.7%.. as the bid rumour chatter comes to nothing.
--


VIX update from Mr T.




Re: the broken ETFs/ETNs...

VXX, 5min


Clearly... someone needs to hit the reboot button.

--
time for lunch

11am update - same old nonsense

After opening moderate declines, and another lousy PMI number of a recessionary 46, the market is already rebounding. Regardless of the close, its already been a failed morning for those in bear land. Metals are holding minor gains, Gold +$3. Oil remains weak, -1.1%.


sp'60min



sp'daily5


Summary

*daily candle is already offering a spike floor on rising trend...
--

It is getting tedious again... and this mornings opening weakness is making for a mere retracement of the strong Monday gains.

Sure, we'll still close the month net lower, but does it matter?
-

Notable weakness: oil/gas drillers, SDRL -3.5% in the $9s.

10am update - opening weakness

US equities open moderately lower, but there really isn't much downside power behind it, as reflected in the VIX +3% @ 15.00. Metals are holding minor gains, Gold +$2... whilst Oil is still weak, -1.3%.


sp'60min


VIX'60min


Summary

*Chicago PMI 46.3... pretty dire.. and it is the second consecutive recessionary number. Q1 GDP is going to be lousy.
--

So.... weakness to begin the end of month/Q1, but its nothing significant yet.

Hourly cycles are offering more sig' downside in about 2-3 hours. There is potential there for the bears across the day.

Notable weakness: TCK -8.1%... as the bid/merger rumour is blown out of the water.
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10.01am. Consumer confidence: 101.3... crazy high... highest level since Aug'2007... almost back to housing bubble peak hysteria, although frankly.. it is of little relevance, relative to the Chicago PMI. THAT is what people should be taking notice of today.


10.11am... for those closely watching... opening black-fail candle on the VIX. That rarely bodes well for the bears.

A few years ago.. such a bad PMI number would have killed the market -1.5%... but no... not in these times.

Seems little point being short this market.... not least with the rest of the world markets soaring... but more on that another time.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -13pts, we're set to open at 2073. Metals are broadly flat. Oil is very weak, -2.1%. A busy day is ahead.. as it is not only month end... but the completion of Q1, trading volume will likely be very high.


sp'60min


Summary

So... the bullish F flag is going to fail at the open... that is the third failure in recent weeks.

Market should find support in the low sp'2070s this morning. Things really only get interesting on sustained trading in the 2050s, but really... that seems unlikely today.

The key thresholds for the 'big picture' watchers are...

sp'2104.50... for a net monthly gain
sp'2058... for a net quarterly decline...which would be the first in SIX years.

re: MARCON. It does seem a given that March will close with a bearish MACD cross.. hence MARCON 6. That would be suggestive of a market that is getting increasingly tired..... after the giant rally from Oct'2011.

At best... some kind of intermediate drop this late spring/summer, but I still can't see a grand top for another two years or so.
--

Notable early weakness: TCK, -7.7% @ $14.10.. having denied the original rumour from Bloomberg, that it was in merger talks with London based miner Antofagasta.
-


9.45am. Chicago PMI   46.3, a second recessionary number.

Indexes looking pretty lousy... but VIX showing no real concern.

Net monthly decline?

The week began with significant net daily gains of sp +25pts @ 2086. Equity bulls need a Tuesday close above 2104.50 for a net monthly gain...  but that looks out of range. However, despite the recent weakness, market is set for another net quarterly gain.. only needing to settle >2058.


sp'monthly



sp'weekly7


Summary

*with renewed upside, the opening weekly 'rainbow' candle is an outright bullish green, and with a break over the 10MA (2074).. it bodes for broader upside into early April.
--

So.. rather strong gains to begin the week. I had expected some Monday gains... but not this much. Next short opportunity does not look viable until Thursday.. but then... with a 3 day weekend... who wants to hold short (or long) across that?

--


Looking ahead

Tuesday will see Case-Schiller HPI, consumer confidence, but more importantly..the latest Chicago PMI. Market is expecting 50.2 vs the previous 45.8.

Lets be clear... anything under the 50 threshold is indicative of a recession. If the Tuesday number is anything less than 48 or so.. market should be at least moderately upset in terms of a possible negative Q1 growth number.

*Fed official Lacker will be speaking on the Economic outlook at 9am... and Mr Market will no doubt be listening for any interest rate comments.
-

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed with significant gains, sp +25pts @ 2086. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.0% and 1.4% respectively. Near term outlook is uncertain.. with the threat of a bullish F flag failing.. at least to the low 2070s. Daily/weekly cycles are turning back to bullish.. with one trading day left of the month/quarter.


sp'daily5



Dow


Summary

Little to add.

Daily MACD (blue bar histogram) is ticking back upward.. and is set to turn positive this Wednesday.

Certainly.. it would seem the bulls will be in control ahead of the Friday jobs data.. when the market is shut. I'm not sure if there will be any futures trading this Friday morning.

--
Closing update from Riley


--
a little more later...

Monday 30 March 2015

VIX continues to cool

With equities building significant gains across the day, the VIX was naturally in cooling mode, settling -4.9% @ 14.33 (intra low 14.08). Near term outlook is uncertain, with the threat of the low sp'2070s, before further upside across Wed/Thursday.


VIX'daily3


Summary

Little to add

VIX remains in cooling mode since equities put in a short term floor of sp'2045. The issue now is whether VIX will break the recent low in the 12s.. before next up wave.

With end month/quarter tomorrow... market looks set for heavier trading vol.... and that would generally favour the equity bears... with a higher VIX.

--
more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed with significant gains, sp +25pts @ 2086. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.0% and 1.4% respectively. Near term outlook is uncertain.. with the threat of a bullish F flag failing.. at least to the low 2070. Daily/weekly cycles are turning back to bullish.. with one trading day left of the month/quarter.


sp'60min


Summary

An interesting.. if somewhat annoying start to the week.

Gains were expected today.. but the magnitude of the gains is such that I lost confidence in launching an index short.

*the price action/news in TCK was particularly eye catching, but more on that one.... on another page!
-

more later.. on the VIX
-

4.21pm.. TCK denying any talks with Antofagasta.... stock drops sharply.. from 15.50.. to the 14.40s.

3pm update - bullish F flag

US equities remain holding significant gains, with price structure on the hourly cycle offering a rather clear bullish F flag. However, it is notable that the most recent F flags of March 12th and 16th didn't work out so well for those long. VIX remains weak, -6% in the low 14s.


sp'60min



Summary

Suffice to say.. we have a clear jump higher at the open.. and look set to continue trending higher into the close.

The issue is whether this third F flag will also fail and snap lower at the Tuesday open....  difficult to say.
--

Notable hyper-snap higher in TCK, +10% in the $15s.

5min


I've no idea what is going there...  maybe a rumour on a merger with fellow copper miner FCX ?


3.16pm.. Seems TCK is being linked to Antofagasta (ANFGY)

2pm update - confidence is low

US equities have hit the upper resistance zone of sp'2087.. and that might be it for this rally from the Wed' low of 2045. Whilst equities broke a higher high.. the VIX did not break a lower low. Meanwhile, metals remain weak, Gold -$13. Oil is increasingly weak, -1.3%.


sp'15min


sp'daily5



Summary

*to be clear... I had high inclination to launch an index short today... but frankly... I'm no longer in the mood.. and considering today's gains.... I'm staying out.
-

So.. with two hours to go... can the equity bears at least break back into the 2070s by the close?

In any case.. I'd still like to see a monthly close at least under 2070. More so.. .a net quarterly/year to date decline will need Tuesday to settle <2058.
-
Notable weakness.. miners, GDX -2.1%... naturall following the weakness in precious metals.
-

2.31pm.. Price structure on the hourly is a clear bullish F flag... but the last two didn't work out so well.

1pm update - borderline for the bears

Equities continue to claw higher, with the sp' making a play to break above the resistance zone of 2085/87. Any daily close >2087 will negate any near term hope of downside. Monthly cycles remain a touch bearish... bulls need >2104.50 for a net monthly gain, and >2058 for a net quarterly gain


sp'15min



sp'daily5


Summary

Its getting somewhat tiresome.. as the market is going to close higher for the second consecutive day... the first time since Feb'17th - as clown TV are highlighting every 5 seconds.

All things considered, it ain't looking good for those seeking to launch a re-short.. even though we're at levels which last Friday would have seemed very attractive.
-

notable gains, AAPL +1.8%.
-

1,27pm... sp'2087.. and in terms of time.. we're due to expire.

Its a messy situation... with market mood not particularly based on anything of real substance. 

12pm update - holding significant gains

US equities remain holding sig' gains, with the sp' +1.1% @ 2082. Next resistance is the 2085/87 zone... a daily close above there looks overly difficult. VIX remains subdued, but is offering a floor of 14.08. Metals remain weak, Gold -$13. Oil is seeing some moderate chop, +0.3%


sp'15min



Summary

Certainly, the bull maniacs are starting the week on a strong note, but it is difficult to believe we'll be holding these gains across the week.

notable strength: AAPL, +1.5%

--
VIX update from Mr T.


-
time for lunch

11am update - clawing for the 2085 break level

US equities continue to hold significant gains. Price structure on the smaller 5/15min cycles is a micro bull flag.. offering the 2085/87 zone by 2pm. VIX remains cooling, -4% in the low 14s. Metals remain very weak, Gold -$14. Oil has turned negative, -0.7%.


sp'15min



sp'60min


Summary

Not much to note...

It looks like we'll hold gains into the early afternoon, with the first chance of renewed weakness.. more likely after 2pm.
-
notable gains, AAPL +1.8%. INTC is cooling after last Fridays ALTR bid-talk gains, -1.5%

10am update - opening gains

US equities open with borderline significant gains, already breaking into the low sp'2080s. VIX is naturally cooling, -6% in the low 14s. Metals are weak, Gold -$13, whilst Oil is holding minor gains of 0.5%.


sp'60min



VIX'60min


Summary

An interesting open... we're borderline on the edge of going too high for price structure to still be called a bear flag.

Bears need to hold the line after 11am... otherwise.. weekly cycles will start to turn back upward.
-

In any case... we'll likely cool lower later today... the issue is.. by how much.


10.42am...  hmm..... next zone is around sp'2085/87... seems more likely by 2.30pm

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +11pts, we're set to open at 2072. There will be strong resistance in the 2070s, and renewed weakness is very probable.. as suggested by the bigger weekly cycles. Metals are sharply lower, Gold -$13. Oil is +0.4%.


sp'60min


Summary

So... we'll be trading in the sp'2070s this morning, and I'm guessing we'll get stuck there.

All things considered, it will be a valid area for anyone currently long to make an exit... and also a very natural re-short zone.

Price structure is arguably a multi-day bear flag... that stretches back to the Wed' morning low of sp'2045. If it is... then there is straight forward downside to at least 2039 in the next wave.. if not the 2010s, where the 200dma is lurking.

First things first though... lets see if we can get stuck by 11am this morning.

--
Update from Oscar



-
Doom chatter from Hunter, with PCR.



I'm no fan of PCR, but there are a few bits in there worth catching, not least his feisty rebuttal against Hunter on Iran, highlighting how the western powers have been meddling for decades. It remains pitiful how ignorant most people are in not knowing that the USA/UK overthrew a liberal - and democratically elected Iranian Govt' in the 1950s. Why did they do that ? Ohh yeah, to get hold of the Oil at a better price than the Iranian leadership had offered to sell.

.. but we're the 'good guys... right?  Thus concludes today's history sermon.

--
 Have a good Monday

Saturday 28 March 2015

Weekend update - US weekly indexes

It was a pretty bearish week for US equities, with net weekly declines ranging from -4.9% (Trans), -2.2% (sp'500), to -1.8% (NYSE Comp'). Near term outlook offers renewed weakness, with a viable test of the very important 200dma.. which for the sp'500 will be in the 2010s across next week.


Lets take our regular look at six of the main indexes

sp'500


The sp'500 saw a rather sig' net weekly decline of -2.2%, with a pretty significant bearish engulfing candle. Despite holding above the March 11th low of sp'2039, there looks to be renewed downside viable next week. The weekly cycle is offering a hit of the giant 2k threshold.

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) ticked lower, remains negative, and notably.. attained a deeper low than the second week of March. Best guess... the 2039 low to be taken out.. with the market likely flooring in the sp'2010s.. where the 200dma is lurking.


Nasdaq comp'


The tech' fell -2.7%, although it is notable that the Nasdaq was trading in the low 5000s earlier in the week. Underlying MACD cycle is set to turn negative at next Monday's open.. and there is viable downside to the 4600s.


Dow


The mighty Dow was another index that saw a bearish engulfing candle, with a net weekly decline of -415pts (-2.3%). There looks to be further 'comfortable' downside of another 2% next week to the 17300s. There is VERY powerful support at the 17k threshold, which has held since last December.


NYSE Comp'


The master index slipped -1.8%, but is still holding above the rising trend from last October. A break under the 10800s next week would open up 10500/400s. It is notable that the NYSE has been broadly stuck since last June - when Oil/energy stocks peaked.


R2K


The second market leader fell -2%, and also settled with a bearish engulfing candle, having broken a fractional new historic high of 1268. There is viable downside to the big 1200 threshold. where there are multiple aspects of support. 


Trans


The 'old leader' was smashed this week, with a net weekly decline of -4.9%. This was the biggest weekly decline since last October. Underlying MACD has remained negative for a rather significant 12 weeks. Critical support is in the 8400/300s.


Summary

So.. a pretty bearish net weekly decline for all US indexes. Broadly speaking.. we've seen a pretty choppy March, and we've still two trading days left of the month/quarter.

The 'old leader' - Transports, is leading the way lower, although as ever.. the Oil market is having some particularly serious implications to this sector/index.

All things considered, even if the market manages some Monday gains - especially in early morning, I would be surprised if we don't break this weeks low (sp'2045) as the week progresses.


Looking ahead

Next week will be a short week.. as the US market is closed for 'Good Friday'. It is notable that despite the market being closed next Friday... there will still be the monthly employment report.

M - Pers' income/outlays, Pending home sales
T - case shiller HPI, Chicago PMI, consumer conf'
W - ADP jobs, vehicle sales, PMI/ISM manu', construction, EIA oil report
T - weekly jobs, intl' trade, factory orders.
F - *EQUITY MARKET CLOSED*, monthly jobs report.

*There are a fair few Fed officials due to speak across the week, with Yellen due next Thursday, although I don't believe that will be of any importance.

--
Back on Monday:)

A week for the bears

Despite a rather subdued and tedious end to the week, it was still a bearish week, with net weekly declines of sp' -47pts (-2.2%) @ 2060 (intra week low 2045). There looks to be another opportunity for the bears next week, and if 2039 can be taken out.. then an 'interesting' test of the 200dma in the 2010s will occur.


sp'weekly



sp'weekly7


Summary

* a closing red candle on the weekly 'rainbow' chart, although it is resting on rising trend/support from last October. 
-

Its been a long week.. and I will leave it at that.

Goodnight from London
-

*the weekend post will be on the US weekly indexes

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed moderately higher, sp +4pts @ 2060 (intra low 2052). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.2% and 0.7% respectively. After significant net weekly declines, near term outlook offers renewed weakness next week, first downside target is the 2039 low.. and then the rising 200dma.. currently around 2010.


sp'daily5



Dow


Summary

Little to add

Friday was a relatively subdued day... but one that doesn't offer a clear floor/turn. Certainly, another test of the 2039 low from March'11th looks due.. after some likely Monday morning gains in the sp'2070s.
--

Closing update from Riley


--
a little more later...

Friday 27 March 2015

VIX cools into the weekend

It was a mixed day in VIX land, with a kooky downside spike in early trading to 14.19, then turning fractionally positive to 15.83, but settling -4.6% @ 15.07. Near term outlook offers renewed equity downside.. with VIX 20s 'briefly' viable next week.


VIX'60min



VIX'daily3



VIX'weekly



Summary

*the VIX saw a net weekly gain of a very significant 15.75%.
---

So.. an intra week low of just 12.58, but then soaring to 17.19 - which was also the exact high from March'11th, when sp' was 2039.

All things considered, there looks to be another opportunity for the equity bears next week.. and if the 2039 low can be taken out.. then VIX will be trading (if briefly) in the low 20s.. as offered by the bigger weekly cycle.
--

more later.. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately higher, sp +4pts @ 2060 (intra low 2052). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.2% and 0.7% respectively. After significant net weekly declines, near term outlook offers renewed weakness next week, first downside target is the 2039 low.. and then the rising 200dma.. currently around 2010.


sp'60min


Summary

*closing hour drama.. as INTC rumoured to be buying ALTR
--

... and yet another week at the world's most twisted and rigged casino comes to a close.

Certainly, a week for the equity bears.. with the post FOMC retrace low of sp'2085 failing to hold.. and then giving another 40pts of downside to a Wed' floor of 2045.

All things considered.. bears should have another chance at breaking the 2039 low.. which will offer at least a test of the 200dma in the 2010s by next Tue/Wed.

Have a good weekend.

--
*The usual bits and pieces across the evening.. .to wrap up the week
-


4.33pm... The Yellen is now answering questions....



'May be warranted'.  Hmmm

Considering price structure, an early Monday gain into the sp'2070s still looks more probable... unless the Greeks can upset the market cart first!