Volatility slips into the long weekend

Whilst US equities climbed on 'relatively' good monthly jobs data, the VIX was knocked lower, melting into the weekend, -4.6% @ 10.32. Near term outlook is for VIX to remain within the 12/10 zone, although the 9s look probable at some point this July/August.


VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

Suffice to say, VIX remains exceptionally low, but as the 2004-07 time frame displayed... VIX can remain very low for some years.

It remains an incredible..and bizarre situation to witness..but as ever.. it is.. what it is.

Underlying weekly MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is offering a possible spike in late July/early August, but right now, even the mid teens look a stretch.

Certainly, VIX 20s now look out of range until the autumn...if at all.
-

more later.. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately higher, sp +10pts @ 1985. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled higher by 0.7%. Price action is suggestive of the 1990s next week, although 2000 still looks out of range until the following week... not that it matters.


sp'60min

Summary

Yesterdays baby bullish pennant certainly played out as expected.
-

Suffice to say, weekly charts remain incredibly strong, and talk of 'sp'2100s' is not sounding so crazy anymore.
--

Well, its time for my lunch... but I will post the usual things to wrap up the week, across the rest of today.

Have a great long weekend everyone.
-

*the weekend post (late Sat') will be on the World monthly indexes

12pm update - gains into the long weekend

US indexes are set to close the short week with somewhat significant gains. With new historic highs on most of the indexes (Nasdaq Comp', still a clear 10% below the March'2000 high), there is nothing bearish on the near term horizon.


Dow' weekly

Summary

So, a 3.5 day week, and the Dow is set for a net weekly gain of around 200pts (1.2%).. which is pretty impressive on any basis.

I realise some will be looking to the Q2 GDP data, but the various other econ-data points are not suggestive that it will favour the equity bears.
--

VIX update from Mr P.


--


Update from Riley, which is probably his last post of the week...


--

back at the close.

11am update - sp'1814 sure looks a long way down

It is barely 3 months since the key low of sp'1814, which is now almost 10% lower! The market is climbing at the rate of 10pts a week, 40pts a month (2%)...and looks set for the big 2000 level within 2-3 weeks.


sp'daily5

Summary

It is kinda scary how powerful this recent ramp from the April low has been.

Whether you blame it on stock buybacks... foreign capital in-flows, or plain outright 'Govt' meddling', we have a market that is strongly pushing higher.

If GDP Q2 (due July 30th) comes in least +2%.. the market will likely continue pushing higher across much of August.
--

My train wreck is battling to push higher...

WFM daily

42s viable by next Friday? Oh well, I'll hold across the long weekend.

10am update - good news is... good news

US equities are breaking new historic highs after the much better than expected monthly jobs data of 288k net gains (headline rate 6.1%). With the Dow breaking 17k, the sp' is within 1% of hitting the giant psy' level of 2000. That now seems a given... but not next week.


sp'weekly8b

Summary

We're climbing at the rate of 40pts a month... roughly 2%... and that makes for upper bollinger gains of 10pts a week.

So... we're 1980..in 6 trading days time the weekly cycle will be offering 2000.
-

*I have my eyes on WFM, I am hoping for a little third day of consecutive minor gains, which still offers a small hope of the $40s next week.


VIX has already been knocked to 10.40, and looks set for the 9s... more likely once sp'2000s
-

Notable weakness in the momo stocks... I guess someone has hit a 'cash out' program..

TWTR -2%... at $40... but I'd still guess 'easy upside' to the big $50 within a month or so.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch higher, sp +2pts, we're set to open at 1976. Precious metals are moderately lower, Gold -$10, with Silver -0.6%. With the jobs data coming in much better than expected, fears of Q2 GDP will likely lessen, helping equity bulls all the way until July'30th.


sp'daily5

Summary

*monthly jobs: 288k net gains, headline rate falls to 6.1%

We still have some ISM/PMI service sector data at 9.45-10am.
--

Frankly, that is a rather 'reasonable' jobs data. Were we seeing that kind of number for the past 4 years or so, we might even be able to have called it an 'economic recovery'.
-

Market closes at 1pm today..so.. not much left of the trading week.


9.34am.... Dow 17k... and sp'1981..... 0.9% away from the giant 2000 level... amazing.

Upward melt into the lunch time close...probably.
-
Sig' QE next Monday... bears have a real problem to start next week.

Daily Wrap

US indexes saw a naturally very quiet day, in a trading range of barely 4pts, sp'500 settling +1pt @ 1974. There is viable Thursday upside into the low sp'1980s, with the giant 2000 level likely out of range until late July/early August.


sp'weekly8b

VIX'daily3

Summary

There really isn't much to note.. on what was indeed a day of nothing.

VIX remains low, settling -2% in the upper 10s, and even the mid teens look out of range until late July.
-


Closing update from Riley


--


Looking ahead

Thursday will see weekly jobless claims, trade data, and ISM/PMI service sector data.

However, far more important, we have the monthly jobs data, Market is expecting 211k net gains, with a static headline rate of 6.3%. Any number >225k would no doubt please those on the 'recovery continues' wagon.

*next sig' QE is next Monday.
--

Goodnight from London