Friday 4 July 2014

Bits and pieces for the holiday

The US equity market continues its broad climb from the Oct'2011 low of sp'1074 - that makes for a gain of 911pts (85%) across 34 months. Primary upside target is now the 2130s, which at the current rate of increase, will take until early spring 2015 to be achieved.

sp'weekly9 - fib levels


With price action as it is, I'm increasingly resigned to much higher levels. I've raised the target to the sp'2130s - also see monthly'5 below. There are a number of reasons for that, not least that if the market is still cruising higher into the autumn.. then it will surely keep going all the way into Christmas and early spring 2015.

Regardless of whether you agree with the actual wave count, the primary upward trend remains unquestionably strong. Right now, equity bears would have to put in a July monthly close <1900 to offer any hope of mid-term weakness, and that looks very unlikely.

Video update from an especially bullish Carboni

Oscar's target of the sp'2100s is indeed (and disturbingly) right on track. I'm unaware if Oscar ever looks at Fib charts...


The 2130s are a very old fib' extrapolation - from the 2009 low to the 2007 top, that now looks a valid primary upside target. Based on the current monthly rate of increase (40pts), it will take until early next spring to be reached.

Dr Copper - on the climb

As well as closely following Gold and Silver, I'm certainly also mindful of the more industrial metal of Copper. We saw a brief break of the $3 threshold.. but now we're on the climb, and Copper looks set for the 3.60/70s.

Copper, monthly

Any break above $4 would bode for a significant inflationary jolt to the world economy. Certainly, it would be bullish for the broader equity market, and for the mining stocks. FCX for instance would likely test the big $50 level from 2011.

FCX, weekly

Just this past week, FCX saw strong weekly gains of 6.8%. If you consider the sp'2100s are going to be hit - along with rising copper prices, then FCX has a very high chance of pushing another 25% or so higher.. to hit $50.

Digging out of the trenches

Yours truly is naturally underwater on the long side (yeah, the irony). WFM has managed to string together a few daily gains, and is on the edge of making an attempt to challenge the declining 50 day MA.

WFM, daily

If WFM can clear the $40.75/41.00 zone next week, there is a fair chance for 42/43..which would be somewhat 'useful' for me. Certainly, it looks okay for $48... but that could be another 2-3 months out, and as an options trader, I'm facing the ticking clock.

Anyway, I'll give WFM the entirety of next week, and see where it is trading next Friday afternoon.

Two big games coming up today, France/Germany.. and Brazil/Columbia. That will be a great lead in for the weekend :)

Enjoy your Friday

Ohh, and for you Americans out there...

*next post will be Saturday, on the World monthly indexes

Twelve weeks for the equity bull maniacs

The sp'500 closed the short trading week with yet another green candle for the weekly 'rainbow' chart. That makes for a rather incredible twelve consecutive outright bullish candles, and there is zero sign of the current multi-week up wave ending any time soon.



When the market put in the key floor of sp'1814 in early April, I had expected a good 4-6 strong weekly gains, but this is getting into crazy territory.

When will it end?

I want to highlight an outlook/wave count from poster 'Eddy'. It is pretty much similar to weekly8b that I regularly tout, except that Eddy has some upside targets for the sub waves that I think are really important to consider..

sp'weekly8d - Eddy.

I'd certainly agreed that we are in some sort of sub'3 wave. The truly disturbing aspect of this outlook is that - based on the current rate of increase, the market is going to 'broadly' climb all the way into next spring.

Another 9 stinking months of this monstrous wave from Oct'2011 ? .For me, such a further wait (at least in terms of no short index/VIX long trades), is something that is really rattling me.

Regardless.... a long weekend is ahead. I will probably post some miscellaneous bits and pieces tomorrow, along with a weekend post on the World monthly indexes.


    good to hear from some of you this week...........have a great weekend..

        and...  goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities climbed higher into the long holiday weekend, sp +10pts @ 1985. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled higher by 0.7%. Near term outlook is bullish to the 1990s.. with the giant psy' level of 2000 viable within 2-3 weeks.





It was merely another bullish day, and end to the week for the US equity market.

The jobs data - even from a econ-bearish perspective, was 'reasonable', and it was no surprise to see the market break Dow 17k, and come within 0.75% of the giant sp'2000 threshold.

a little more later...
*the weekend post will be on the World monthly indexes