BREXIT remains on the menu

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp -2pts (0.1%) at 2798. Dow +0.1%. Nasdaq comp' -0.1%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.5% and +0.5% respectively. Near term outlook offers a bounce into the sp'2810/20s.

sp'daily5

R2K, daily

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities began the week some moderate swings, opening weak, a failed reversal, moderate declines to sp'2785, but then clawing back upward into the afternoon. The closing hour saw further chop, notably failing to hold the 2800 threshold. On balance though, a bounce to the 2810/20s appears more probable, than a straight run to the 2750s.

The second market leader settled +0.5% at 1512. It can be argued price structure from late Feb' is just an ABC, or some kind of big bull flag. That is something I noted in the weekend post. 

Volatility fractionally broke last Friday's high, but then went into cooling mode, settling -0.9% at 16.33. S/t bearish, with a notable gap - from March 22nd (not viewable on daily chart) in the 14s.


BREXIT remains on the menu

As law stands, the UK is set to exit the EU this Friday, March 29th at 11pm GMT. That is the default position, and will ONLY change if PM May decides to have the law re-written.

The UK, EU, US, and other capital markets are not taking the situation seriously. Any 'hard'/no-deal BREXIT will likely be very problematic. It would spook the markets... if only for a few days, much like the actual vote in June 2016.
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Looking ahead

Tuesday will see Housing Starts, Case-Shiller HPI, consumer con', and the Richmond Fed'.

Earnings: Cronos, Carnival, KB Home.
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A mixed day

It was a mixed day for yours truly. I made a run for the exit at the open in ROKU. That was one of my better decisions lately, as the stock duly swung upward, and then hyper ramped on speculative buyers with the AAPL announcement.

I had server issues though, and those stress me out more than any trading loss. I am thankful that I at least have a reliable old home here... courtesy of GOOGL.

Tuesday should be back to normal at http://subscriber.permabeardoomster.com
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More escapees from the UK

A moment of serenity

The equity market is one giant Ferris wheel of crazy.

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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If you value my work, subscribe to my intraday service (where the server is usually working) 
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Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp -2pts (0.1%) at 2798. Dow +0.1%. Nasdaq comp' -0.1%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.5% and +0.5% respectively. Near term outlook offers a bounce into the sp'2810/20s.

sp'60min

Summary

closing hour action: leaning upward, with another attempt to break/hold above the hourly 10MA, but failing, with a daily close <2800 threshold.
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... and that concludes Monday. It was a day of moderate swings, mostly leaning toward the bears. On balance though, the bulls should be rather pleased with today, not least after the overnight Asian smack down.

The s/t cyclical setup favours the bulls for Tuesday, but there remains the issue of BREXIT, which does threaten late week/end month turmoil.

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notable stock: MU

A second rough day for Micron, as the post earnings Thursday gains are all being eroded. I see the stock as m/t problematic, until memory prices show some sign of leveling out.
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notable stock: TWTR

Friday saw a clear failure at the 200dma, and today's action wasn't inspiring.
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notable stock: TSLA

Its an ugly s/t trend, with the stock also m/t broken. RBC downgraded 245>210. Yours truly holds to psy'200/190s... only negated with a monthly close >300, and that sure doesn't look likely.

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Have a good evening
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more later on the VIX and Indexes by 6pm EDT

3pm update - into the close

US equities continue to see some swings, but with a viable micro double floor of sp'2785. A s/t cyclical bounce threatens the 2810/20s, before resuming lower.. ahead of BREXIT, which (as things stand).. is scheduled for Friday, 11pm GMT.

sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

Suffice to add, the moderate swings continue. The s/t cyclical STILL favours the bulls into early Tuesday. I'm actually concerned of a tag of upside gap to 2844/54, with VIX 14s, before the next swing lower.

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notable stock: AAPL

Despite all the mainstream fawning over Apple, the stock is set to close sig' lower for a second day, and perhaps below the 200dma.

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notable weakness, DIS

Disney has been broadly stuck for over three years. S/t bearish, as giant psy'100 isn't a stretch.
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notable financial: BAC

Bond yields remain leaning weak. If I'm right about the US 10yr to 2.25%, then BAC and others will be dragged lower into early April.
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notable stock: ROKU, 15min

Some crazy swings today, and I'm glad to be out of this one. The break above last Thursday's high does negate the s/t bearish outlook. I'll likely leave this one alone, and switch to indexes instead.

back at the close...

2pm update - metals and miners

US equities remain choppy, still s/t cyclically inclined to lean upward. Meanwhile, the precious metals are broadly higher, Gold $9, with Silver +0.9%. The miner ETF of GDX is currently +2.0% in the $23.20s.   


GLD daily

GDX daily

Summary

Gold/GLD: gold has printed $1322s. Its kinda interesting, but as ever... its ALL broad chop. Things only turn decisive >1400s.

GDX: miners are catching a bid today, clearly helped via higher metals.

notable miner: NEM

Newmont Mining announced a special dividend of 88cents, conditional on the merger with Goldcorp (GG) being agreed/finalised.  Valid/superior alt: Barrick Gold (GOLD)
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Equities: sp'60min

Price action is choppy... and we're still s/t cyclically on the low end. The threat will be of upside into the close and stretching into early Tuesday.

*I can't be dealing with any further server uncertainty, so ALL posts for the remainder of today will be HERE.    yours... is it Friday yet?

10am update - opening swings

US equity indexes open a little weak, reverse upward, and then swing back lower. The s/t cyclical setup will favour the bulls. VIX opens a little higher, fractionally above last Friday lunchtime's high.

sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

For those hoping for early sig' weakness... its still a rather disappointing open.
We're s/t cyclically low, and the setup will increasingly favour the bulls into the afternoon, perhaps all the way into early Tuesday.

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notable stock: AAPL

Apple will no doubt receive a lot of mainstream attention this afternoon. Who would dare short this one?
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notable weakness, MU

Micron continues to see some post earnings swings. I see the stock as problematic, as memory prices show ZERO sign of a floor.
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notable weakness, TSLA

There are increasing stories about weak US/EU sales. The stock is m/t broken. Support psy'200/190s. Only negated if March settlement >300, which sure doesn't appear viable.
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notable stock: ROKU, 15min

*yours truly bailed at the open. The opening candle is a hyper-reversal... but the gains are shaky.
In any case, the $55s are still technically on the menu, but for the moment.. the main market will be inclined to cyclically lean back upward into early Tuesday.
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Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are fractionally higher, sp +1pt, we're set to open at 2801. USD is -0.1% in the DXY 96.10s. The precious metals are moderately higher, Gold +$5, with Silver +0.8%. WTIC is -0.2% in the $58s.

sp'60min

Summary

re: Server. So... I'm unable to sleep, its 1am GMT, and I see an email from my web host, telling me an emergency update is being carried out, and I was to refrain from ANY updates until 7am PST.
So... here we are. 
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Overnight futures were mostly moderately weak, but we've seen a recovery. The break <2800 is significant though, and gives confidence we should see a wheel of barrow of supports tested in the near term... to around sp'2750.

Its 'curious' that 2750 isn't just s/t support, but its effectively the key area for whether March settles back to m/t bearish. As noted many times recently, on balance, I do NOT see a bearish March settlement. Price structure for a number of indexes is a pretty clear multi-week bull flag.

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Early movers

AAL -0.6%, weak airlines
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AAPL -0.3%, major product/service day, focused on a relaunch of Apple TV. That will garner considerable mainstream attention. I've even seen paid advertisement by Apple, via Twitter, in the trending column.
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AMD -1.9%
AMZN -0.8%
BA +0.4%, spurious gains, a downside reversal appears due
BABA -0.9%, weak China market
BAC -0.1%, lower yields... bearish.
BCS -0.5%, weak UK financials
BIIB +1.7%, dead cat bouncing
CGC +1.7%, price structure is a giant bullish pennant
CMG -1.2%, I see the valuation as ludicrous
DB -0.7%, weak EU financials
FB -0.5%
GDX +0.5%, higher metals
GOLD +0.3%, higher gold
INTC -0.7%
MSFT -0.4%, RBC upgrade 124>130
MT -1.4%, weak EU industrials
MU -1.2%
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NEM +2.3%. Special dividend (ex div' date April 17th) of 88cents, conditional on the merger with Goldcorp (GG) being finalised.
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NVDA -1.3%, weak tech-hardware
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ROKU -1.2%, soft support, daily bollinger, around 60/59. Last week someone did point out to me, that perhaps the AAPL product/service day would see concerns about competition, and adversely affect ROKU.

In any case... a bear flag was provisionally confirmed on Friday. Prime target 55s. I hold SHORT, but I am pretty twitchy about the open, and will probably make a run for the exit door.
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SQ -1.5%, weak with the sector. Valuation (FPE around 100) remains ludicrous
TSLA -1.4%, the stock is m/t broken, psy'200/190 support.
TWTR -0.8%, last Friday saw a failure to clear the 200dma
VALE -2.5%, warning that the 'sul superior' dam stability is 'critical condition'.
VIX +4.8% at 17.27.
WDC -1.9%,
WYNN -1.5%
X -0.5%
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Overnight markets

Asian markets began the last five days of March with powerful declines, whilst Europe is only a little weak...

Japan: -3.0% at 20977
China: -2.0% at 3043
Germany: currently -0.2% at 11336
UK: currently -0.4% at 7176

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Have a good Monday

*the 10am post will also be on this public site.
Normal posting will likely resume http://subscriber.permabeardoomster.com  from 11am onward.