Lets take our regular look at six of the US indexes
sp'500
We're fast approaching the 1900s, and indeed, the only issue now is whether 2k will be hit this spring...or if the market will first see a major multi-month decline, with 2k delayed until next year. Considering the length of the ramp from Oct'2011 - we're now at month'30, I have to believe we're close to an intermediate top.
I remain highly suspicious that the next FOMC of March'19 would make for a natural early spring cycle peak. However, even if we do slip lower from there, unless it takes out the recent low of 1737 (141pts lower), there is still a threat of another multi-week wave higher in April/May.
Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is a little lower than the momentum peak of Dec'2013, but still, there is nothing remotely bearish yet, not least with new highs being regularly hit.
Nasdaq Comp'
The tech sector continues to push higher, although the year 2000 bubble peak in the 5100s is still a very considerable way higher. I do not see the 5k level being hit this year, but certainly...in 2015.
Dow
The mighty Dow is just 136pts shy of the historic high of 16588 - seen last December. A new high does seem very likely in the coming week or two, but 17k looks out of reach in the current multi-week up wave. Key support is the price cluster zone of 15500. Any monthly closes under 15.5k, and the bears will be starting to seize back control - for the first time since July/August 2011.
NYSE Comp'
The master index is trading in historic new territory. There is viable upside of another 2-4%, but the 11000s do not look viable this spring, perhaps even until next year.
R2K
The second market leader has broken into the 1200s for the first time, and there is open air of another 3-5% in the immediate term. However, the 1300s look difficult to hit this spring. If the main market gets upset and we see a major rollover, best 'doomer bear' downside is the huge psy' level of 1000 - which is almost 20% lower.
Trans
We're only 5 trading days into March, and the Trans is already 3.3% higher, having broken into the 7600s. There looks to be open air to the 7700/7900s. The big 8k level looks...overly difficult to hit this spring.
Summary
So, we're one week into the month, and most indexes are already significantly higher. The trend remains clearly to the upside. Indeed, it utterly bemuses me how anyone is trying to short the tiny little retraces that we occasionally see.
I sure won't bother attempting to capture 3, 5..or 10pts of downside. Seems overly risky, whilst the primary trend is still powerfully to the upside.
There has been a lot of talk along the lines of 'ohh...sp'500 is making new highs, but what about the Trans..or the Dow?'. Well, we now have the Trans in the historic 7600s, and Dow looks set to break new highs within the very near term. Dare I suggest that many out there are still cherry picking their indexes. I continue to endeavour to look at the collective of indexes, not just the weakest!
Looking ahead
There really isn't much due next week. The only notable econ-data due is retail sales next Thursday, along with the usual jobs data. Aside from that...the market will be free to focus its attention on other things...perhaps the Ukraine?
*There is sig' QE-pomo: Mon' $2-3bn, Thurs' $3-4bn
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Back on Monday :)
