Volatility moderately higher

With US indexes moderately lower, it was no surprise to see the VIX build gains across the day, settling higher by 5.5% @ 11.60. Near term outlook is for renewed upside in equities, with the VIX remaining in the 12/10 zone. The 9s remain viable.. if briefly.


VIX'daily3

Summary

We're going to surely break out of the descending trend next week -at the FOMC.

Even then, I only expect 15/16s..at the very most...perhaps equivalent to sp'1905/00 - where is there are multiple aspects of support.

From there, I'll be looking for another wave higher in equities, which should keep VIX pinned low into mid July.
--

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

US indexes closed moderately lower, sp -6pts @ 1943.  The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.8% and -0.5% respectively. Near term outlook is bullish into the sp'1960s, by the FOMC of June'18.


sp'60min

Summary

Little to add.

Today's minor declines, regardless of whether you want to call it a sub 4.. or D wave, I still expect further upside into early next week.
--

the usual updates across the evening.
-

more later..on the VIX

3pm update - minor upward churn into the close

US equities look set for minor churn - with underlying bias to the upside, into the close. Mr Market continues to display the same style of price action as it has for some weeks..arguably..months.


sp'60min

Summary

There really isn't much to note.

There is certainly some interesting action going on in individual stocks, but the broader market is basically just seeing some minor weakness, after what have been pretty significant gains from the sp'1864 low.
-

*I will hold moderately LONG overnight, via WFM - which has recovered well from earlier lows, and I remain seeking the $44s.


3.15pm... market quietly pushing upward..

WFM has recovered very well, and might even close net positive, which is certainly pleasing..I could do with the 44s by late Friday, and then close out for the weekend.


3.28pm... I realise most have no concern for it,, but hey...why not cheer on WFM...after all, its my one and only LONG position!

A daily close in the $42s would be good...and keeps up 44s by Friday..although I realise that would require a sig' jump across the remainder of the week.

Main market...merely in standard recovery mode....1944....

2pm update - still holding the 1940s

US equities are still moderately weak, with the Dow -115pts, but then.. that is only 0.7%. Metals are failing to show any strength, and have turned red, Gold -$1.


sp'60min

Summary

Two hours to go, can the bears break, and get a daily close <1940....I don't think so.
--

Notable weakness...airlines.. UAL, -5%

UAL, daily

--
2.07pm.. 5/15min cycles will be closing to flooring soon.

Equity bears getting a chance to exit at the low of day.

I am tempted to almost pick up an index-long here....but I'm really not in the mood.


2.13pm.. floor/turn ...imminent..at what is a typical turn time of 2.30pm....

Bears....beware!


2.20pm... looks like a floor is in at 1940.... 5min cycle appears concluded.

...up into the close...somewhere in the 1945/50 zone.


2.29pm.. Market churning out a floor...bears seemingly unable to push <1940.

90mins...time for an up wave.

1pm update - the minor chop continues

US equities remain moderately lower, but price action is no different than the previous few weeks. Sp'500 looks set to hold the 1940s, before resuming a slow push higher into next week.


sp'60min

Summary

*I am reading a few top callers out there, I can understand why some are calling it, but I just don't see how the market is going to weaken for at least another month.

Ohh, and by 'weaken', I'm talking about more than 3% lower..back under sp'1900, and I don't even think that is viable after the FOMC.
--

*WFM is annoying today, -1.4% in the mid $41s, I'm still seeking the 44s. Lately, I've next to zero patience. If I weren't posting, I'd turn off my screen and come back next week.

12pm update - holding first support zone

Equity bulls are comfortably holding the first support zone of the low sp'1940s. A daily close in the 1950s remains very viable, not that it is necessary. Metals continue to see minor chop, Gold +$1


sp'60min

Summary

There isn't much to note.

Price action remains generally strong, and the 1960s still look likely before the next FOMC of next Wednesday.

*notable weakness in the airlines, UAL -4%
--

VIX update from Mr T.



--
time to cook

11am update - minor weakness

US indexes remain moderately weak, but so far..the equity bulls are holding first zone of support in the low sp'1940s. A daily close in the 1930s still looks unlikely until after the next FOMC. VIX is clawing higher, +4%, but still in the lowly 11s.


sp'60min

Summary

*yes..stockcharts has missing intraday data from yesterday. That has naturally skewed all the MAs, etc.
--

So...we're lower, but really, this is nothing. The only solace for the bears is that there isn't any sig' QE until next Monday.

Considering the recent price action..and current structure, I'm guessing we hold around these levels, before resuming higher tomorrow/Friday.

10am update - opening weakness

US indexes have slipped moderately lower, but the declines don't appear to have any real chance of building across the day. The primary trend remains to the upside, and will likely continue into the next FOMC. Metals are looking weak, Gold only +$1


sp'60min

Summary

*stockcharts only part working, the hourly charts have just appeared..but yesterdays data is missing.
--

So..we're lower, but I just don't see any reason why we'll go much lower than 1940 today..or even for the rest of the week.

Yes, the daily MACD cycles are rolling over, but then..upside pressure is still very strong.
-

Notable movers...

AMZN +2%
UAL -2%
-

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -8pts, we're set to open at 1942. Equity bulls should be able to hold the line around 1940. Metals are a little higher, Gold +$3.


sp'daily5

Summary

So..we're set to open somewhat lower, but the bulls can easily sustain 1940.

Again, it will be interesting to see what sort of buying interest we get on this latest minor decline.
-

 *stockcharts should be fully working this morning, although I think some of yesterdays intra-day data will be missing.
-

Update from Mr C.


-

Daily wrap, with charts!

US indexes saw minor chop across the day, sp -0.4pts @ 1950. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, slipped lower by -0.1% and -0.3% respectively. Near term outlook remains broadly bullish into the next FOMC of June'18th.


*with stockcharts back (sorta), here are a few of the main indexes

sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

*first to be clear...I do NOT expect the R2K to remain stuck at the current level, I do expect the 1200s within the next week or two, and new highs in July - along with all other indexes.
--

So, a relatively quiet day in market land, and it is notable that the sp' managed a second consecutive close in the 1950s - a level many thought not possible until year end.


Looking ahead

There isn't much tomorrow. The only notable things are the EIA oil report, and the US Treasury budget.

*next sig' Qe-pomo is not until next Monday.
--


A more normal Wednesday

With stockcharts being offline, it was not the easiest of days. I do have access to my own broker chart software of course, but none of that is annotated, and its just not as good.

I don't expect much from the broader market tomorrow, other than relatively quiet conditions, with the underlying upside. Daily cycles are offering the sp'1960s this week, and I do believe we'll see that.
--

*this morning I picked up WFM from the $41.60s, well above my target entry, but with viable upside to at least the 44s, I decided to chase it higher. I'll probably hold until Thursday/Friday.

Goodnight from London